Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[Supercellimpact]

Hopefully there is development at charlton

[Blackee]

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 11:40 am Friday, 29 October 2010,
Valid until midnight on Friday, 29 October 2010.

There is a chance of thunderstorms developing ahead of the main rainband in the southwest of the state later in the afternoon and evening associated with a westerly windchange that will develop in the west and move eastwards during the afternoon.

[tizza]

It really is looking like another fantastic system, I'm surprised the pollen count is only high for today, I was expecting extreme/astronomical. I haven't had hayfever like this for years, I had to pop down the street earlier and you can see clumps of it flying through the air. This return to a wetter winter and spring feels like every tree has released every possible particle of pollen it has.

Bring on the rain, this sneeze fever is shocking!

Adelaide is looking amazing on radar, lets hope it keeps on building as it approaches like it's forecast too!

Just cracked 25c here, dp and rh are still quite low at the moment.

Sniper, thank you for the chart!!!

[Blackee]

No probs Tizza, not the most exciting chart I've posted!

In summary the following Flood Watches are in effect:

Flood Watch for West and South Gippsland,
Flood Watch for Greater Melbourne,
Flood Watch for Barwon, Hovells Creek and Otway Ranges,
Flood Watch for North East Victoria,
Flood Watch for the Goulburn and Broken Basins,
Flood Watch for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins

For detailed information on these warnings, please visit the Flood Warning thread in Breaking Weather or visit http://www.bom.gov.au

[Karl Lijnders]

12pm Update:

Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms have moved to be near Adelaide and off the SE SA coast. A wind change ahead of the rain has established itself over the Adelaide metropolitan area but is quite shallow. Cold pool is surging onto the W coast at the moment.

Through VIC there is still a fairly clear satellite picture which bodes well for any thunderstorm chance that remains this afternoon. Temps of around 30-32C are required in N VIC to get any storm going. At this stage it remains a 30% risk.

Otherwise the rain is still due to start in the far SW of the state by 3pm and then gradually move over W border areas from 5-6pm and Melbourne by around or after midnight. Rain will increase in intensity as it moves further east and then stalls in lieu of a low pressure system forming.

Latest model guidance remains largely unchanged and 50-100mm widespread is still expected.

Next update at 3pm.
Please visit http://www.bom.gov.au for the latest warnings.

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Currently it is sitting on 25C here so 30C is a shot if the cloud does not increase. Lovely sunshine right across the city and indeed most of VIC this morning.

[Didjman]

24.4/14.7C here atm. Max wind gust 41.7klm/hr - not bad for Broadford being in a hollow.
Peter

[Supercellimpact]

12pm Update:

Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms have moved to be near Adelaide and off the SE SA coast. A wind change ahead of the rain has established itself over the Adelaide metropolitan area but is quite shallow. Cold pool is surging onto the W coast at the moment.

Through VIC there is still a fairly clear satellite picture which bodes well for any thunderstorm chance that remains this afternoon. Temps of around 30-32C are required in N VIC to get any storm going. At this stage it remains a 30% risk.

Otherwise the rain is still due to start in the far SW of the state by 3pm and then gradually move over W border areas from 5-6pm and Melbourne by around or after midnight. Rain will increase in intensity as it moves further east and then stalls in lieu of a low pressure system forming.

Latest model guidance remains largely unchanged and 50-100mm widespread is still expected.

Next update at 3pm.
Please visit http://www.bom.gov.au for the latest warnings.

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Currently it is sitting on 25C here so 30C is a shot if the cloud does not increase. Lovely sunshine right across the city and indeed most of VIC this morning.

Well if you look at Charlton where the instability is the temp 26 and dp is 12.5 so if the temp cracks 30 maybe we will se some development.

[Twister]

31c with gusty N NEW winds up to 50km/h and Dp is falling

31/3c today i really cant see storms get going today to many issues to over come GFS was always bit to egar in my books

Rain band in SA looks good some solid and heavy falls in it which is great this should really build up later today more so over night as it stalls in W Vic and the cold pool closes in and lifts more moisture up and also runs into the moist NSW QLD air over night into Saturday.

Shame no storms for my birthday but you cant have it all

[Supercellimpact]

Oh well Rain will be good though!

[stevco123]

If that low sits to the west of melbourne, then won't the rain shadow effect play a massivee part in minimising falls for southern victoria?

[Karl Lijnders]

It may reach 32C in that area but I suspect the storm risk will be still 30%. I believe that the storm activity if any will be on the fringes of the rainband in W VIC.

[johnno]

Convection to my North

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Just had my first branch down,
26.4c. " Be safe everyone traveling over the next few days. "

[Rhino]

Where the low sits will help determine where the heavier falls will most likely be but there will still be a certain amount of luck involved as to which areas cop an absolute belting. A 20km difference in low position or direction might determine if you are under a solid convergence band or not and for what amount of time. So the long of the short is the low will drift around a bit in terms of exact positioning so the models, as always, should be used to determine a more general area of where the low will form and move because we have all be in the position of "if only the low developed 100km further east I would have been thumped" and been severly dissapointed. It's going to rain alot and really that's all we need to know at the moment. Once the low actually develops then we can take it from there, although it's great to speculate.

Rhino.

[johnno]

Latest 00z UKMET

Saturday night 10pm.. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?M ... sl&C2=pmsl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sunday 10am... http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?M ... sl&C2=pmsl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Blue indicates between 25-50mm, Orange/pink 10-25mm, brown 5-10mm.

UK has gradually developed the low bit more east with each run 2 days ago had the low near Adelaide Saturday morning then around Charlton Yesyerday now between Kerang and Echuca it develops in the trough before moveing South just West of Melbourne and slowly deepening with a decent wrap through the Otways pushing back towards Central Victoria Sunday morning but personally I think it still has the low bit to far West by 100-150ks

[stevco123]

I'm really praying that the low heads to the east of melbourne.

[johnno]

You still may get your wisk Stevco.. Latest 00z GFS just updated..


GFS 4pm Saturday >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GFS 7pm Saturday >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GFS 10pm Saturday >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Compare that to this mornings 12z EC run...

12z EC for Saturday 10pm >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... MO=&ZOOM=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


GFS this afternoon looks almost identical to EC this morning for Saturday night on where that low

[DarkEye]

The winds changed down here and boy it's cold, going to be a bitter weekend I feel.

Bye.

[ckeenan]

I want the low to be in the west for some big rain

[Karl Lijnders]

4pm Update

Significant rainfall is continuing to fall across E SA along a strong cold front and pressure trough that is set to intensify this evening as it moves east. There is likely to be another burst of rain behind this initial band which may become thundery, chiefly north of Adelaide. Falls of 10-20mm have been achieved over wide parts of SA with isolated falls of 30mm since 9am under heavier cells of rainfall.

W VIC is seeing a increase of high cloud presently with a little patchy rain falling through far SW VIC and also along the W border with SA. This rainfall is expected to increase this afternoon and become steady through the region by 7pm. Cloud will increase for C areas more noticeably around 7pm through Melbourne-Echuca with rainfall not coming into these regions until 12-3am Saturday morning. There is the slight chance of a few thunderstorms in the SW this evening, though mainly a rogue clap of thunder with locally heavy falls.

Overnight the rain will spread to affect most W and C areas and begin to increase over E Western VIC (Swan-Hill-Ballarat-Cape Otway) during the morning and this activity will slowly move E peaking over C areas during the afternoon and into the night and become near stationary as a low winds up over the state and moves south to be located W of Melbourne by tomorrow evening. Local thunderstorms in clearer air will develop over E districts with scattered showers tending to rain later in the day in milder air. Over the NW the rain will break to showers later. SW winds will develop over the W and spread into C areas at night and become strong and gusty over the coast.

Sunday the heavy areas of rain with local flooding will continue for a good part of the day in S Central and W Gippsland Districts with widespread showers over the remainder of the south, more isolated in the north continuing in a strong SW flow which will shift Wly later. Snow will develop on the Alps at night. Cold throughout.

Next Update at 7pm.

Keep up to date with official warnings @ http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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27C here so the first October without a 30C for I think 10yrs!!! Now lets get a November without a 30C!