Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Petros]

AccessG has the base/focus of the easterly dip in Vic, GFS has it in SA, EC a bob each way and a lesser system. An interesting week ahead and I'll put my nose out and say that SE Vic will get 50mm from Sunday to Thursday...... all in a thundery easterly dip scenario. Mind you I am stupid..... we've hardly had a storm here in Maffra since last summer. (Hardly means distant thunder only > 6-7 secs audible and buggerall rain from the "near misses").

[Anthony Violi]

An amazing couple of weeks coming up, going to be very uncomfortable and very wet for most of Australia let alone us.

Looks like the activity could start Sunday as the trough dips in and interacts with some moisture left behind with tonights trough..

And generally thundery rain areas all week culminating in a very large system in a week or so time, or next weekend.

GFS has downscaled the rain as most falls after 168 hours, but if the cyclone it progs comes this way there will be a lot of inland flooding.

I favour the trough cutting off over us late in the week and wrapping in the moisture for a big rain finale at this stage, Ec has a cut a weak low at the end of the run in the bight but doesnt know what to do with it.

[Karl Lijnders]

Greetings from the north.

Well it does appear like there is going to some unprecedented weather coming across wide areas of Australia in the coming week or two and VIC is definitely in the mix to pick up some further large rainfalls.

I would anticipate tomorrow to be fairly warm and unsettled with decent showers and storms developing during the afternoon and evening with some moderate falls. Sunday that activity does stall through the state though remain mainly over the inland as the flow becomes more ESE. Then from Mon-Fri and potentially beyond, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the state, tending to rain in the NW and W with locally heavy falls.

Humidity readings may be at record highs as well with monsoonal air from here being thrown south into the trough over VIC/SA/NSW.

Exciting times indeed and again I expect most averages for January to be achieved in this sequence and temps to remain below average through the day time, but above average overnight with the tropical air.

[Didjman]

We have flying ants here - sure sign of significant rain. 27.3/16.5C here as I type. My sons toes are also aching - another rain sign.
Peter

[Petros]

If (and its a big if) AccessG's scenario were to come off (easterly dip focused on S Central Vic) the accumulated rain totals for Gippsland would result in major flooding and disruption for holiday makers. Heres Tuesday, after monday has already been progged to deliver circa 30mm!



Now I'm starting to wonder what the week after will bring - will be up in Merimbula on holidays (if we can get there).

[Rhino]

Thinking around 30mm for my area, OCF around that amount, but could be twice that or half that such is the deal with storm setups. Rain bearing system with embedded storms would be the bee's knees but will see how it plays out and could develop into patches of heavier rain overnight as things progress. Interesting setup and looks like it will be a take each day as it happen type scenario but thats always the case with stormy weather.

Rhino.

[stratospear]

Looks very similar to what we got in Jan/Feb 1993 when we got hours on end of embedded storms in the middle of the day drifting in from the NNE. Fun times ahead!

[HarleyB]

I must admit that up until this point I havent been really excited about this system, it seems to have been chopping and changing too much for my liking. However now, it looks to have firmed as a significant event for most of the state. Will wait to see what EC says this evening, and will wait till after the heat tomorrow morning here before I really pay attention to it. At this stage hoping for 30-50mm here, but the whole system/event looks a little muddled to me.

[Supercellimpact]

BOM have put Humid everyday from Monday, hopefully some good storms around.

[Anthony Violi]

Ok so EC has seen my last post, and cuts off the trough into a low on Friday, followed by a big sequence of cut offs and colder air pools. Totals should be very big given humidity is progged to be massive..

[I_Love_Storms]

Ok so EC has seen my last post, and cuts off the trough into a low on Friday, followed by a big sequence of cut offs and colder air pools. Totals should be very big given humidity is progged to be massive..

I am loving the latest EC. If it comes off some areas are going to be well a truly underwater. They are no good with convective activity which this week mainly will consist of. Given that they are giving moderate totals most days is very promising.

[cutofflow]

I am loving the latest EC. If it comes off some areas are going to be well a truly underwater. They are no good with convective activity which this week mainly will consist of. Given that they are giving moderate totals most days is very promising.

Spot on. Expecting ~50mm here Mon,Tues & Wednesday (said without even batting an eyelash)

[Petros]

Just checked EC/GFS/Acc10 for next week and I reckon us out in Gippsland need to be alert (not alarmed). This is a large system, with models consistently disagreeing, and the only common denominator is heaps of CAPE comming in from the NE

[Rhino]

Yeah looking at tonights models, would'nt be suprised to get double our Jan average here by next weekend (around 60mm that would be). GFS looks the goods at the moment and generally does alright in these setups even though storm setups are always a bit hit and miss but looks like we might get some heavier rain areas going by AWF forecast. Looking good tonight though.

Rhino.

[Dc449]

Hopefully the rain clears out for the 20/20 on friday. Slim Chance would you say?

[Rhino]

Holy crap. Now I know it is the 06z run but have a look at the GFS totals in it's latest run. I'm glad it's the 06 run.

Rhino.

[HarleyB]

Wow! I have just seen the latest GFS run, and, wow, it looks scary at the moment! Amazing falls are progged! This dry run looks certain to end with a bang, and a huge one at that

Edit. Just beat me to it Rhino

[Petros]

It seems that an end to the dry spell is immenent for the recent 2 weeks in Vic.

The outcome is very uncertain due to the models diverging. All models I've accessed show significant rain to varying areas in Vic depending on which day you look at.

BIG TED!! - the potential has sucked me in!!!!!!

[stratospear]

I suspect GFS is doing its usual "let's go completely nuts 3 days out" tantrum. Anyway, all models seem to ramping things up a bit and I suspect many will be whinging about an excess of rain by Weds/Thurs...

One good thing is that many of the rivers around here have dropped considerably since mid-Dec allowing a bit of space for a mid-summer deluge. Although the Murray is still flowing hard.

[Petros]

I suspect GFS is doing its usual "let's go completely nuts 3 days out" tantrum. Anyway, all models seem to ramping things up a bit and I suspect many will be whinging about an excess of rain by Weds/Thurs...

One good thing is that many of the rivers around here have dropped considerably since mid-Dec allowing a bit of space for a mid-summer deluge. Although the Murray is still flowing hard.

Jeez mate.. the whingeing on this site last 6 months has come from those that "missed out" post potential events from what I've noted .... I know you've copped heaps and all of us in the "misssed out" zone wished you all the best, surely you can share some around?