Victoria: Unsettled - 14th-16th December 2010

[Jake Smethurst]

Hi Monbulkian. From what I understand, the Norwegian model has data taken from day 2, 3, 4 and onwards, from the the European model, ECMWF, which is quite accurate most of the time, however on Day 1 it uses it's own data, which is rather useless in my opinion.

[Monbulkian]

Hi Monbulkian. From what I understand, the Norwegian model has data taken from day 2, 3, 4 and onwards, from the the European model, ECMWF, which is quite accurate most of the time, however on Day 1 it uses it's own data, which is rather useless in my opinion.

Thanks Guess time will tell. Will post any rainfall in the relevant thread.

[Supercellimpact]

Norwegian has 1.2mm for Wednesday, 3.5mm for Saturday, 10mm for Sunday . 14.7mm from now till Sunday is good to keep the grass and plants going strong, I am use to rain events every 2 weeks will be different when we start getting weeks of dry weather.

[mick]

The bay is once again calm and it looks like the evacuation of Dunkirk out there. Since they built Eastlink, its gone nuts on the bay. A little unsettled out to the west, way out the back of geelong etc.

[greensyboy]

A storm would be a great birthday present!

Same here!! I will be 21 for the 30th time lol
Peter

Awesome - me too! Would be great if there was something on Wednesday. My brother's birthday is March 6th, no interest in storms whatsoever though. Having something on Wednesday would only make it right!

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking like a toss of the coin still. Chance of showers and thunderstorms along the C and E ranges tomorrow.

That activity will spread throughout though dependent upon the timing of the front and trough come Wednesday afternoon.

Later in the week is starting to show signs of a moderate rain event.

[Monbulkian]

Just had a look at Norwegian. Has 0.5mm for us on Wednesday but 40mm for us in the next week, most of that falling on Sunday and Monday. Is this a model that is accurate? It always seems to under forecast the rain up here for us. Admittedly I'm new to all of this and don't often look at it's forecasts this far out but it happened to catch my eye.

Checked Norwegian again and it now has nothing for us on Wednesday and now 50mm for us in the next week most of it falling Sunday and Monday

[Anthony Violi]

We will get a decent change on Wednesday, the later the timing the more we will get.

But i think thunderstorms are a definite regardless, and may even get some good ones too.

[Jake Smethurst]

Things still looking on track in my opinion.

I would be watching the eastern ranges tomorrow afternoon where a few isolated thunderstorms could develop. Otherwise, elsewhere is looking fine, warm and mostly sunny, except in parts of the Wimmera and Southwest late in the day where there could also be some late isolated thundery showers.

Still not personally sure that isolated thunderstorms will develop over western and central districts on Wednesday. I am 100% confident that the Northern Country, Northeast, and Gippsland districts are in with a shot however. The trough looks set to push across the southwest during the morning, reaching the central parts, including Melbourne, around midday or early afternoon, then the eastern districts during the afternoon and evening. So I am saying scattered showers developing with the front over the western and central parts, with isolated thunderstorms in the east. I don't think Melbourne will get any storms, thats just how I see it.

[ShaneEEEE]

The new storm potential maps from BSCH agee with you...

[Jake Smethurst]

Very sexy looking chart Shane. Love the new stuff on the web page btw. What data makes this new TS forecast?

[Supercellimpact]

According to the new BSCH storm potential maps, they is a chance of storms for Saturday for central Vic, we might have to extend the dates.

[HarleyB]

According to the new BSCH storm potential maps, they is a chance of storms for Saturday for central Vic, we might have to extend the dates.

Nah, there is a new thread for the 19th-20th, that will probably do fine for the moment, we'll see what the mods think first.

Just a slight chance of storms for North Central i reckon. Will be lucky to get under anything as they will be very isolated if they happen at all...

[Supercellimpact]

But Saturday is the 18th and no thread covers that.

[Anthony Violi]

Thats BSCH site should be taken in context, just like Norweigan.

They are guides, and not any good more than 24 hours out. Tomorrow when you see the atmosphere destabilise due to the heat and all the available moisture the models arent seeing, you will see what i mean.

[Supercellimpact]

I hope your right AV and models are wrong and they are a few storms around the area.

[Karl Lijnders]

Quite a bit of convection in the Bight from mainly high and mid based storms. Not a tremendous amount of rainfall with them but certainly worth keeping an eye on for tomorrow as it moves into our region.

Some models got 1-5mm through C areas tomorrow so there could be something, but dependent upon timing of the change, particularly for C areas.

[Karl Lijnders]

According to storm charts issued by the BoM - Melbourne is a slight chance today of seeing some thunderstorm activity.

The activity is possible throughout the state tomorrow, but more likely over the north.

Going to plan.

[Supercellimpact]

To subscribe to the BOM storm charts, where on the bom site is it. I cannot find it , i have gone into registered sevices.

[HarleyB]

Apart from cirrus to the N and tiny Cu patches, there is a rather substantial (comparitively) Cu cloud to the S/SE. Can't see the bottom if it form here but the top is well defined.