Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[Supercellimpact]

GFS has upgraded rainfall for central vic 75mm plus which is awesome and a stormy saturday! 06z model

[Petros]

All depends on moisture arrival ex ENE and the timing of the cold air arriving in SE SA.

At this early stage it it's pointing towards Twisters scenario for sure. (refer to Deans earlier post)

But as we all know, the outcome will be significantly different to this early "heads-up".

[Meso]

GFS looks great in terms of rainfall Fri-Sun, but I can't see much there to suggest we'll see anything decent in the way of thunderstorms.

What are the other models saying? My free WZ trial ran out

[mick]

Plenty clouds in the east, trying to form a shower atm.

[stratospear]

EC is holding steady in forecasting about 18mm for this weekend.

[Supercellimpact]

GFS has downgraded the rain a fair bit considering they had about 75mm last night for central Vic.

[droughtbreaker]

GFS remains very excited about the Friday to Sunday period and continues the rainfall right through to Cup day. It looks to me like the stalling scenario may be back on the cards. EC showed these tendencies in its latest run but IMHO is underestimating rainfall totals. I do tend to think this one will be big.

[Supercellimpact]

That post was before this lastest run

[I_Love_Storms]

Yes, big storms may be on the cards Friday evening as well.

[Meso]

Nice upgrade in the 06z for Friday with -6 LI's around Tocumwal on the border. CAPE not overly impressive tho, so who knows what it's doing. Be nice if all the instability was in Vic for once rather than NSW/QLD hogging it all

[Harley34]

Well, it's been a pretty quiet last few days. Today was pretty good, same with yesterday, so in terms of nice weather, it has been right up there. Looking forward to a change in weather within the next few days. Anticipating good falls around VIC from Friday night through to Saturday. I Luv Storms, you said it's looking good for Melbourne, how confident are you at this stage? All models are predicting substantial falls for many areas of VIC, and for a large portion of C-SE Australia, but what's it looking like currently for storm development for Melbourne or closely surrounding areas, anyone?

[droughtbreaker]

Storms mainly in the east at this stage but more of a rain event than a storm event. Can't see much in the models to suggest there will be a major storm outbreak.

[Rhino]

Looking good for some usefull falls, 10-15mm over most parts, and certainly looking like NE parts will cop a nice drenching again. Not getting overly excited yet but should be some locally heavy falls over eastern areas, although very early days but US going nuts and EC pumping out solid totals but not heavy as yet so will see which model wins out. Certainly will wait until wed night to get a clearer picture but IMHO... we're gunna get rain..

Rhino.

[Karl Lijnders]

Well this system is certainly starting to come into a bit more light today with most models going for a cut off situation over the region with a substantial rain band entering the state then stalling over the weekend with moderate to heavy falls of rain likely.

Friday the trough will move into the W of the state with areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms spreading to C areas by nightfall. There is the slight chance of thunderstorms ahead of the main rain band over the C and E ranges with a bit more clearance ahead of the rain. Winds will be strong NNW which will mean temps getting close to 30C throughout ahead of the rainfall. Humidity will also increase.

Saturday the rain will persist over much of the state with locally heavy falls likely in C and developing in E areas during the day. Local thunderstorms are likely about the NE during the morning before the rain settles in. Winds will shift colder and strong SSW in the far west of the state during the day and start to affect C areas during the evening. Warm and humid ahead of that wind shift.

Sunday rain areas and thunderstorms with locally heavy falls in C and E areas will tend to showers from the W during the day, clearing the far NW later. Snow developing about alpine areas later in the day. Showers trailing the rainband look more frequent over E Central and W Gippsland by Sunday night into early next week. Local hail and thunder is possible about the coast.

All in all I expect a renewel of flooding at this time over N and E VIC with some problems developing in C areas by the end of this system. 50mm widespread at this time through C and E areas is a reasonable estimate right now with local falls over 100mm possible. All depends of low position, timing of the rainband and if the rainband becomes more convective during the transitional stages from trough system, into a low pressure system.

US, CMC, EC, NOGAPS are all wanting to cut it off over the region, ACCESS wanted to put it through as a normal cold front/trough situation in the previous 00z run and I have not seen this mornings update.

[daviescr]

This system is really starting to look like a doozie. .

Not sure I have heard you use that term before DJ - perhaps it's time to get excited

[johnno]

Will there be a wrap around DJ given the Upper low will be sitting off the West coast of Victoria on the weekend while the surface low develops East of us? That mean the wrap around will be mainly from low to mid level cloud and rain showery conditions? Not often you see the Upper low and surface low detached by 600ks

[johnno]

BTW here is NOGAPS, CMC, CMC Ensemble & JMA on Saturday all tend to be inline with ACCESS, EC & GFS with slight adjustment of where the system will end up but all have this system for Victoria

NOGAPS >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

JMA >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

CMC >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

CMC Ensemble >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lily]

David Brown's been saying over and over again on the radio this morning that there will be "torrential" rain Saturday, tipping 30mm for the races.

[stevco123]

Quick question guys,

How is it that the bureau only predicts rain on friday night/saturday morning, but only isolated showers on sunday, when clearly we could potentially be seeing rain all day saturdayinto sunday morning.i have found time and time again that this forum predicts a weather situation a lot earlier, and then the bureau jumps into it a day before it happens.you would think they would give people a lot of warning in advance.
Thsts why i love this forum lol.

[Karl Lijnders]

They have to forecast within the parameters of the models and strictly abide by the model output. In here we are able to have a creative licence as the BoM have lost that through they're 'improved' automated forecast system. It is apparently meant to be more accurate but I find it smudges the rainfall and forecasts rather than does more timed based precis forecasting which they used to do with updates at regular intervals through the day and night.

In any case it will change over time and I suspect tonight the forecast will read rain all day Saturday into Sunday morning.