Victoria: Trough and Unsettled. April 17th-22nd 2010

[adon]

Hmm sounds like an outside chance of some half decent falls on the weekend at this stage but too much divergence in models to be planning for it. Would be nice though! Doesn't look all that promising though. Apart from the low near WA atm there looks to be pretty stable type of weather coming. Anyway off to nightshift and home in the morning!

[Twister]

Cant see anything major at all with this just some showers and the odd storm about, mostly in the SW though.

Looking like quite a warm week with mid to high 20s in the north and low to mid 20s in the south and about a week of N NE E winds with the highs taking and more summer like pattern well south of Tassie and in the Tasmen sea. With no major low or front coming in to break it up, should be very pleasant warm weather which i am sure many will enjoy but not us weather folk the warmth will be nice though.

Some more rain will be nice and think next chance wont be till Anzac weekend

[I_Love_Storms]

System or no system, I am happy to see some forecast heating of the atmosphere. This should bode really well for when the next substantial system comes through

[Jake Smethurst]

Don' forget ILS that we need cooler uppers to get the best oppurtunity out of the systems.

I still think convective activity resulting in isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms for at least the Wimmera and Western forecast districts on Sunday with an upper trough to the west of the state. Isolated shower/storm activity still about on Monday and Tuesday but only in the southwest. Uppers look relativley cool enough to support deep convection and the moisture is looking okay too. Key this time round is the trigger (the upper trough) is fairly week, but IMO enough to get a few storms kickin in the SW. Looks like contracting away on Wednesday at this stage. Remaining fine elsewhere during those days.

Hopefully I will be in the right area for a thunderstorm from Sunday. Would be nice.

Stronger system coming through late Friday from the west. Looks more promising with showers/storms.

[droughtbreaker]

Still not writing this one off. IMO it is one of those scenarios where the general pattern is OK but specifics will be the key to whether we get anything or not. Upper cold air coming through is conducive to shower development for the western half of the state starting Sunday at the earliest but certainly early to mid next week the chance increases. We may not see anything develop as the large blocking high remains a bit too close to us probably but I would be taking it as a day by day prospect, models have been very 'on again, off again' and won't necessarily pick any rainfall even if the chances are there.

Nothing unusual about the temps forecast this week, going through the records we have had a lot of warm spells of this magnitude at this time of year in the past. The models have a bit of a change coming through on Wednesday/Thursday and IMO it may be a degree or two cooler than what the BOM forecast says for those days but at this stage I would be sticking with BOM temps.

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking like this system will be mainly SW and W VIC now. A few showers and storms about for a few days but could spread east into C areas.

The second half of the week should see a broad area of instability move through with a few showers and storms.

[Nick Sykes]

Well not much to say, what a stunning Autumn day, beautiful outside, on the lappy doing assignment in the backyard, very pleasant. To me this is looking like more an Indian Summer type pattern with the cold pool at 500 looking like staying out west and a block in the Tasman with an upper high. Looks like a nice run of warm days for Central Vic and Melb. Pattern looks like breaking down towards the end of next week when a LWT moves in from the west.

Enjoy this weather, winter will be here soon

Nick

[Twister]

Yes it is unreal outside 24c and should see about 25c or so with the next week looking easy 25-28c so a warm week ahead after an avg week temp wise.

Haven't seen cloud in about a week might see a bit over the week end and early next week then back to fine looking quite a warm week ahead.

cant see much rain few showers and storm in SW but little if any for most.

BTW locusts are all flying south today on the N NE winds so look for an influx of the bugs into areas north of a line Horsham, Kilmore etc

[Jake Smethurst]

Still sticking with my gut and thinking isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Wimmera and Western districts on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Could be the risk for some of that activity to linger into central parts, but unlikely IMO. It will be restricted closer to the initial trough Sunday, then upper trough from then which should be located near the W border. Upper temperatures are cool enough to support deep convection too IMO and moisture levels are in relativley good order for something to get going. GFS not budging either on this throughout the entire period, so another plus.

[droughtbreaker]

Not writing it off at all, my area is pretty much right on the boundary for precipitation atm and anything can happen when you chuck in the effects of a mountain range. As David said, just a 100km shift east of the system or even a bit less and it could make all the difference. It certainly is a week at least of well above average temperatures but at this stage I can see a week at the end of the month ending up significantly below again so who knows just what the average temp will end up.

It would be incredible and disturbing if Melbourne broke the April record we set in 2005 (pretty sure this was the record?) when the average was 24C. Still a long way to go. It is a bit ridiculous how we are breaking so many monthly records and now it looks like we could even start seeing records that were broken in the last few years broken again. It's not that the temps forecast this week are out of the ordinary for this time of year, 25C-27C days occur at this time of year quite often, the problem is how long these temps are persisting, days and days without a break, not just a few very warm days then a few cool days with a change.

I knew we were in for some warming but never in my wildest dreams did i think we would be breaking monthly temp records left right and centre by now. Anyway one for the climate threads I suppose.

[Anthony Violi]

Imteresting few days coming up, expect to see some showers scattered around western Vic and i would say a decent chance of being fairly close to Central too. The warmer weather yesterday gives us a better chance tomorrow than previously thought. GFS Still showing decent stuff across the west as is EC, just not in central yet.

Next weekend looks massive.

[droughtbreaker]

Well, certainly EC has some very warm air coming down later next week with the strong front approaching. It probably could nudge 30C in Melbourne ahead of the front depending on whether there is much cloud or not. Western suburbs in particular could see a 30C then. The problem of course is the build up of heat thanks to the blocking pattern and a lack of frequent cold air coming through and not penetrating far enough inland to flush out the heat. By the end of the month we should see another significant cool spell but Melbourne will likely have days of 27C+ before then. Ridiculous really. I'm just starting to turn slightly negative now after months of being really positive. I've just had enough of this persistent warmth and not enough variability with the climate. It really is boring for long stretches and we don't get the definition on the seasons anymore. It just goes straight from summer to winter and then straight from winter back to summer again. Anyway one for the climate threads, sorry for posting this here.

Already 21C here which is unexpected. All models looked like it would be 22C here as a best estimate now it looks like it could end up 24C/25C. Who knows how hot it will get in Melbourne, probably closer to 30C than we think.

[Twister]

I expected mid- high 20s today but might see almost 30c, high 29s easy i feel

28c here already and its not even 12pm its unreal warmth this time of year not record heat, but high 20s for a week mid-late April is impressive.
I am loving it and the sky has a lot of small cu and ac cloud about, also has that unstable look to it, but with no decent trigger or moisture nothing will happen or a light shower at best

SW Vic could see some shower and odd storm tomorrow and Monday which has been said all week and still on track

28/8c with light NNE winds and LOTS of Locusts

[adon]

Yeah similar here too Dean. Got a swarm moving through here from the East. Not massive numbers but not good to see since I just got some oats sown during the week. Hope by the time it comes up, they will have moved on but not looking to good with all that heat and N winds.

[Anthony Violi]

Latest GFS has upgraded significantly...so there is a big system brewing as i mentioned a few days ago. Be interesting to see EC tonight, i think it will hold and should show the possibilty of central areas getting something next 96 hours.

[Harley34]

Imteresting few days coming up, expect to see some showers scattered around western Vic and i would say a decent chance of being fairly close to Central too. The warmer weather yesterday gives us a better chance tomorrow than previously thought. GFS Still showing decent stuff across the west as is EC, just not in central yet.

Next weekend looks massive.

Yes, that Cold Front looks very decent .

Btw, today took me by surprise, close to 28 degrees in Mid-April , but hey, with all this warming, do you think with the front we will see a few big thunderstorms??

I really hope this time, that there is not alot of pre-frontal cloud, because it just kills off some of the convection.

Something to watch over the next few days

[droughtbreaker]

22.9C maximum in the end here. Temperature didn't rise much after around 1pm. Only 0.5C to 1C warmer than I was expecting. Thought at one stage it could have been nudging mid twenties. Strange how some days it stays cool until around midday and then the temp rockets up but other days the temp races to the maximum by early afternoon and then stays almost steady for the rest of the day.

Still not ruling out a shower or two for here on any day between now and next weekend. Whilst models are not keen on it the atmosphere should become borderline unstable and the ranges here may be enough to kick off the odd shower. Not really expecting it to happen but certainly not ruling it out.

[Twister]

29.6c here today so quite a warm one was almost hot in the sun with no wind still has some sting that sun atm.

Some big fluffly Cu went up this avro but just mid level cloud now nice summers day really lol

Warm week ahead with 25-28c till next weekend when a solid front looks set to come through but to early for details

Lots of light showers in SA today they should be about W SW VIC next few days but nothing major spots here and there and few mm for a lucky few

[Jake Smethurst]

Okay here is what I think for Victoria over the next few days.

Sunday

Cloud increasing from the west with isolated showers over the western districts, mainly during the afternoon and evening with isolated thunderstorms over the southwest. Fine over central and eastern parts. A warm day with light to moderate northerly winds.

Monday

Generally cloudy with isolated showers over western districts, possibly thundery and tending scattered in the southwest, and mainly during the afternoon and evening. Fine over central and eastern parts. Warm with light northerly winds, moderate in the west.

Tuesday

Generally cloudy with isolated showers over western districts, tending scattered in the southwest during the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the west and during the afternoon and evening. Mainly light to moderate north to northwesterly winds.

Wednesday

Generally cloudy with isolated showers, tending scattered at times near the ranges, and mainly during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible, contracting to the far east by the late afternoon. Mainly light and variable winds.

[Twister]

Still 22c here with light Ne winds and its Midnight unreal stuff warm night ahead, should be another warm one tomorrow, with a few drops about but most of it south of Ouyen i reckon.

lots of showers on Adel radar but they aren't going anywhere and not much in them.

22/8c light Ne wind at 12am in mid April Impressive