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Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2023 8:23 am
by stevco123
hillybilly wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 7:32 am Another really mild one down here with a minimum of 10C. Snows all gone on the mountain 😩Climbed up it yesterday, was crazy windy with graupel blown by 100km/hr winds, but got quite mild in the afternoon. Should get a top up on Tuesday but then mild again on Wednesday and Thursday.

Bit of a contrast with vic which is sat under a high with very dry air allowing chilly nights and mild days.

That said looking at data, expect we are going to see plenty of stations have their warmest July on record. Coldstream, for example is running nearly 2C above its previous record high minimum, while Hobart’s max and min are both running well above the previous warmest month on record.

Todays looks mild most places. Front for Tuesday bringing somewhat cooler air. Pattern repeats Tuesday and Wednesday.


We're only half way through the month effectively, and it's looking a lot cooler than the first half, so all those record breaking stations should come down to average or just above average, BUT not highest in record. Wouldn't surprise me though. The weather has been all over the place the whole of 2023. May was cooler than July currently is it seems

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2023 8:50 am
by Macedonian
Frosty -4° at work in Macedon this morning. It was frosty +2° at home on the mountain.
-4° at Woodend and -4.4° at Trentham.
Proper cold morning for this very mild July.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:11 am
by StratoBendigo
Another ripping frost this morning. Down to -2.5c.

Starting to get proper El-nino vibes now... At least our storages are full!

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2023 11:45 am
by Derwent
Huonville in the Huon Valley is known for it’s frost as per all the apples
Currently nighttime temperatures plus 3.3 degrees over average that is insane and nothing but the same ahead . The same can be said daytime temperatures way above and 15 and 16 looks like finishing the month when it’s should be just short of 12 degrees c
Haven’t seen a decent cold front since April 😱

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2023 3:15 pm
by StratoBendigo
Later this week shows signs of some upper cold pool activity over SE Australia with lowering freeze levels. Nothing to write home about though.

The last few days of July seem to be showing up some juicier stuff on GFS.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2023 8:07 pm
by hillybilly
16c here today under sunny skies. Front tomorrow will bring a few showers and snow later on the mountain. Not heavy but a welcome change.

Progs starting to look a lot like El Niño. Even have the wandering upper low headed for Queensland which often happens during El Niño winters.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2023 8:40 pm
by Derwent
Seemed like October today in Huon Valley Tassie 17c and 60kmr warm winds

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 7:09 am
by hillybilly
Another mild night here, dipping to 9C. A windy front today. Should get a few mms. Similar for vic.

Some signs of a proper front for Saturday. Not a classical system as a cold pool breaks through a belt of high pressure, but at least it’s cold. Guess new thread if it sticks.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 11:33 am
by StratoBendigo
Another freezing -1c morning today. Now cloudy with a weak cold front passing through.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:05 pm
by Macedonian
Spring-like weather here today , sun, cloud, showers, wind and repeat.
Just ducked home for lunch and it was only 5.5° up there. Currently 8° at work in Macedon.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:31 pm
by Derwent
Huonville started out at 12 c this morning currently 8.4 c gusty with showers.
Wind chill around 5c ✔️

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:58 pm
by Macedonian
My max today was 5.6°. Beanie weather.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:27 am
by hillybilly
Front yesterday has more or less ended the mild spell :) 13C yesterday which was the 14th consecutive above average maximum in Hobart. Today is forecast to be 12C so might continue the pattern or might end it. The long term average max is 11.8C. Down here in Howden we were a smidge below average on Saturday so didn’t get that run.

Bit of snow on the mountain this morning.

Perhaps a thread for the weekend. There a shot of cold air, though it looks like going straight north to bring snow to the Tablelands in NSW and perhaps even the granite belt. Nasty little low possible near the southeast Queensland coast. Definitely one to watch.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:52 am
by StratoBendigo
Fourth sub-zero morning in a row here. -2c and deep frost this morning.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 9:34 am
by snowfall
3.8c overnight here. No frost of course but it's still good to be closer to normal.

Just a smidgeon of rain here yesterday, which wasn't quite enough to register in the gauge. It's turning into a dry month, and very El Nino-like, although we're not quite in an El Nino yet.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:13 pm
by Australis(Shell3155)
Very chilli today,
8.5 FTG @ 8pm was 6 @ 6pm
See Bayswater few klm away @4.4.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:23 pm
by Macedonian
snowfall wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2023 9:34 am 3.8c overnight here. No frost of course but it's still good to be closer to normal.

Just a smidgeon of rain here yesterday, which wasn't quite enough to register in the gauge. It's turning into a dry month, and very El Nino-like, although we're not quite in an El Nino yet.
Wow, it was -2° with a huge frost this morning at Macedon when I arrived at work.

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2023 9:45 am
by Macedonian
Wow absolutely feral morning.
I took this pic this morning of Mt Macedon with the huge cap cloud hovering. It doesn't look like it but I could barely stay upright against the howling north wind.
Big difference between here at work 6° and home which has just dropped to 0.9° up there in that cloud mass. Nasty day for sure.
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Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2023 11:49 am
by snowfall
Yeah, ridiculous winds today and overnight, continuing the theme of this winter.

We lost power around sunrise, but thankfully it was restored within a couple of hours. Otherwise, feels like everything is taking a battering. The cold front is not too far away now, although I am not expecting much here. It's fairly brief as it is and we tend to get rain shadowed in strong northerlies. Right now it's actually sunny, but the front should cross early afternoon. Currently 8.7c, so a fairly cold airmass, as Macedonian has noted!

Re: Long mid winter mild spell under westerly flow: July 12-

Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2023 11:57 am
by snowfall
Macedonian wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2023 11:23 pm
snowfall wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2023 9:34 am 3.8c overnight here. No frost of course but it's still good to be closer to normal.

Just a smidgeon of rain here yesterday, which wasn't quite enough to register in the gauge. It's turning into a dry month, and very El Nino-like, although we're not quite in an El Nino yet.
Wow, it was -2° with a huge frost this morning at Macedon when I arrived at work.
Amazing to see the differences. It's pretty common actually. On many occasions, we've had colder temps at altitudes below us and above us, probably due to an inversion for areas below while cold air still settles across tableland areas above. Typically, we'll see maybe only a couple of frosts per winter here.