Another rain bearing low: 20th - 23rd Oct

[Wilko]

Tassie in firing line too !

[stevco123]

It's in times like these the BoM really gets to me. Every amateur meteorologist can see that a potential catastrophe is looming early next week, yet the BoM is too worried about how people refer to them.

Pull your head in BoM... go back to 6 hourly forecasts for a starters, and start being more active, at least in times of crisis like we are now.

In positive news, nice and sunny day today. Gives a good vibe

[jimmyay]

I heard on the radio this morning it had all been downgraded and people were breathing a sigh of relief!

[QldTwister]

Yeah not looking to bad next few days just hit and miss showers and storms with more widespread rain coming early to mid next week

Weather so nice loving the sunshine atm so good

What is amazing is the very active pattern just showers rain thunderstorms every day next 7 to 10 days across Vic NSW Qld

[StratoBendigo]

I heard on the radio this morning it had all been downgraded and people were breathing a sigh of relief!

40-90mm for here in the latest models. And all in the wrong places for higher totals.

[Petros]

....and 2 models predict circa 70mm here by next Thursday. No one around Nth Gippy is keen for that, especially with Lake Glenmaggie 95% full.

[hillybilly]

I heard on the radio this morning it had all been downgraded and people were breathing a sigh of relief!

Almost every model has 100-200mm across the northeast for the week. The models don’t capture the peak falls, so would usually expect spot falls to double that.

Heavy falls through eastern Tasmania. 100-200mm northeast and up to 150mm southeast. Am expecting about 100mm at home. We are not prone to flooding so no concerns where we are.

System is really two parts and potentially three. First low coming south tonight gets captured as a trough in the westerlies.

Second low forms on the front coming up into the back of trough one, and then stays over southeast Australia for best part of a week with lots of warm air advection and record or near record precipitable water waves.

Watch out for a possible third system forming late in the period. Too far out to be confident.

I’m up in Albury for a couple of days and very humid here and warm. Rivers are completely full to the tops of the banks and usually over the banks still.

[Didjman]

The ants have been building mounds for 2 days here. What does that tell you???

[dazrain]

....and 2 models predict circa 70mm here by next Thursday. No one around Nth Gippy is keen for that, especially with Lake Glenmaggie 95% full.

Have they done or are they doing any releases from Glenmaggie now to help prevent flooding next week?

[Australis(Shell3155)]

WZ = 90% 20-40mm Scoresby..

May put my seedlings under cover..
I knew yesterdays kinda clear skies was to good to be true.

[QldTwister]

Warm and humid out there and hottest day since April i think 24c so nice and about time def feel the humidity mid to high teen Dps all over the state

Shame not a sunny day would be lots of thunderstorms today if it was sunny like yesterday

Active week of weather ahead and lots of rain from Sunday going to be very wet again on and north of ranges so active so wet just amazing

[StratoBendigo]

10mm in a short sharp downpour this afternoon here.

[Gordon]

We've had a good run here so far with storms staying west of us (just).

Geez it wants to rain though - one cell popped up out of nowhere and it bucketed down for a few minutes.

[Dane]

Had a shower here between 4.15pm and 4.30pm. 2.6mm's with that.

[Lucia]

Not a drop, even though strongly suggested it would rain by the bureau, spent all day out in garden, very humid though.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Not quiet a drop at lunch time
Nothing yet. !

[Gordon]

5mm in 4 minutes! Up to 8mm for today.

[Blackee]

Yeah Twister dps noticeably high coinciding with this warmth today sitting around 17c presently.

We scored a ripper cell mid arvo dropped 23mm in less than an hour and caused some minor flash flooding on the property.

Radar gaps not really filling in too much for
Melb area presently - a relief for west melb residents

[Dane]

Had some heavy showers in the last hour and a couple of rumbles as well.
Now up to 15mm's since 9am today.

[Sean]

Geez, that storm near Lethbridge is intense.

Only a light drizzle here today so far, but there's stuff building on the radar now.

A few strikes would be nice on a Friday.