The Australian Weather Forum

Latest EC run showing good Cyclogenesis and has moved the core compared to yesterday directly 200 km north into Bass strait for 13112016 00z. Spirit of Tassie will need to stock up on the sick bags for the Sunday night voyage.

bom forecast still isnt very exciting, latest stormcast again has it all even further north where as before it was a bulls eye for melbourne in the early hours

judging by the silence it doesnt look like there is much interest.

James wrote:bom forecast still isnt very exciting, latest stormcast again has it all even further north where as before it was a bulls eye for melbourne in the early hours

judging by the silence it doesnt look like there is much interest.

Is definitely still looking unstable on GFS latest for Saturday morning


https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-37.92;144. ... 2/00&w=off

wow that one looks good, i guess it depends which model/site you look at!

Cams all charged:) Even held off working Saturday.
Peter

Things sparking up in NW

Check the adelaide radar, got sent a pic, massive hailstones, look like golfballs to me.

mick wrote:Check the adelaide radar, got sent a pic, massive hailstones, look like golfballs to me.
kjhb.JPG

lovely bunch of Super Cells in that lot..... a couple of those to the north of Adelaide ATM might be tornadic.

Great
It's been a while since I have had a Tornado at my place
Might have to chain the dog up

EC has 46mm here over the weekend

Savage looking storms near mildura according to radar. Going to be a fun night. Hopefully new permanent outdoor IP camera gets some footage.

sky was screaming instability over tullamarine at 5pm! WOW at Satpic!
Bring it on!

http://reg.bom.gov.au/products/IDV65756.shtml

STW for western vic. Next update by 8:20pm

Great timing, running an artificial grass sale at work tomorrow. (Green street, Doveton if anyone needs any)

Rumbles here

Must of been a nice warm updraft on this cell

But will it decay by the time it hits the metro areas?

New update of Severe thunderstorm warning - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV65756.shtml

500 km front of sparks on the WZ tracker now. Only 1 model accurately predicted the intensity of the cells we are seeing....and that was Canadian model (CMC). Check out what CMC just modelled for around 3 to 6am tomorrow morning. If that comes off it will be KA BOOM in central and northern Vic.... hard to tell if it will ....interesting set up though

30mm at Mildura, with most in 15 minutes. Looks like a nice rainy night ahead. Shame they best will probably be in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Mallee, South West, Northern Country, Wimmera and parts of the North Central Forecast Districts.
Issued at 9:21 pm Friday, 11 November 2016.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce destructive winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton and Maryborough.
Strongest wind gust recorded in Victoria so far has been 96 km/h at Mildura Airport at 8.51pm.
Destructive winds have been recorded in South Australia earlier this evening.
Mildura Airport received 29mm of rain in 15 minutes up to 9pm.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks.
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* If you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* Listen to the radio for storm updates
* Switch off your computer and electrical appliances
The next warning is due to be issued by 12:25 am Saturday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.