The Australian Weather Forum

A very Merry Christmas to all our members, and here's hoping Santa delivers twice as much rain as forecast for Boxing Day (except over Onetahuti's house).

As expected, a big downgrade for this system.

And now several forecast models are all excited about another system on New Years Day. But alas that will also downgrade massively as next week progresses. What are the chances I'm wrong? (btw, EC has 40mm and Access-G reckons even more)

Geoff » Thu Dec 24, 2015 8:07 pm wrote:

Geoff wrote:A very Merry Christmas to all our members, and here's hoping Santa delivers twice as much rain as forecast for Boxing Day (except over Onetahuti's house).

Hi note the down grade in total for boxing day, maybe we will be able to be outside after all.

Returned the good lady to The nursing home, did not make it by midnight but her slippers were still intact.

Merry Christmas everyone, may your day be peaceful and blessed.

Merry Christmas, Santa arrived pretty late/early at this home. Have a Wonderful day to all.. !

Lost power over night at some stage, as when it returned the TV came on, "Fright"

Very big wind gusts have lead to closing a few Windows,
Not sure if today is the day for these winds, Christmas cheers and hot winds not a good recipe.

Keep Alert...

Happy Christmas all. Looks like a warm one, and drier and windier. Take care... particularly western areas look rather unpleasant for dust and fires.

Progs look good for tonight/tomorrow. For central areas across the models very consistent with falls in the 15 to 40mm range. Better towards the northeast, and less in the west (which is pretty typical for summer).

ACCESS - 20-40mm
ACCESS-APS2 (the new ACCESS) - 20 to 60mm
ACCESS-C - 20 to 70mm (has very heavy falls just north of Melbourne)
ACCESS-R - 20 to 40mm
EC - 20 to 30mm
GFS 15-30mm
UKMO 15-25mm
JMA 15-25mm

Looking for 25mm here. Any more would be a bonus. This one won't break the "drought" but fingers crossed for follow-up within a week from that tropical low which is headed south, but not clear where.

Thanks hillybilly and thanks for all your insights this year!

Merry Christmas everyone.

Nasty north wind battering us again, hope the loonies out there are having a day off today.
I'm out to do more watering, just got to get the garden through today, then no more for a while (hopefully!).

Thanks HB nice summary I think 25-30mm in rowville, I reckon Ferny creek will get 40mm. Could be some way better totals to North east. Timing is key, if the rain can come through a bit later when there is more heat in the atmosphere it will amplify lifting and rain totals.

Gordon » Fri Dec 25, 2015 7:45 am wrote:

Gordon wrote:Thanks hillybilly and thanks for all your insights this year!

Merry Christmas everyone.

Ditto Thanks HB!

Fire in the Otways down near Wye River is looking pretty nasty. Unfortunately I doubt the rain will come in time to douse it out before it hits the coast. Smoke is showing up on Melb radar too.

A grass fire near Sunbury is also of concern.

Hot one here, though humidity staying ok and winds seem to have dropped. Not looking good out west. That Otways Fire looks to be onto the coast. The big concern will be when the change hits it as it's not far from Lorne and the wind change will push it that way. Winds look to change before the rain.

Fire out near Subury also not good... Though grass fire rather the forest fire.

Hanging out for the change...

Hi guys
Merry Xmas from Fiji
Predictable 32c and Humid here
When we get back from Fiji we are straight off to wye river for our annual camping holiday. Really concerned about the fires. We have limited internet access and would appreciate any updates.
Cheers, Mike

[quote=We have limited internet access and would appreciate any updates.
Cheers, Mike[/quote][/quote]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-25/t ... ad/7054028" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

An out-of-control bushfire burning along the Great Ocean Road has prompted the evacuation of holidaymakers and residents from towns between Lorne and Apollo Bay

Peter

Thanks doesn't look good

Almost calm here now. Progs done a good job of picking the breeze dropping out east of the city. Temp maxed out at 29C which isn't too bad. DP stayed near 10C.

ACCESS-R and GFS upping totals. GFS has 40mm here in six hours tomorrow morning with 25 to 40mm in central areas. Hopefully those fires get a good dose.

Thinking am tomorrow could be wild. Heavy rain, strong winds and a big temperature drop. That could bring down a lot of branches etc.

Doesn't sound good on the coast. Evacuations in Lorne now ahead of the change. The fire looks to have burnt to the coast looking at radar and photos online. The fires gone from about 300 hectares to 1400 hectares today

Merry Christmas to all, lets hope the wind change has a lot of rain and puts ther fires out.

Thanks to all figthing the fires, christmas in Australia I expect a flood somewhere too.

Reading 50 to 60 homes lost in the area,
Paid in full for Australia Day week @ Wye caravan park..
The fright for those ppl is saddening..

**** i can see flames from a fire in the bangholme/ dandenong south area****

Can't pinpoint exactly where from my vantage point here in cranbourne west but has grown a bit last few minutes.

CFA website shows it as a bushfire.

Just warning anyone near there.


EDIT>> looks all ok for now.

Rain just started here. Now just want it to fall heavy for as long as possible. Got fog and gusty winds.

Pouring rain currently between Melbourne and Geelong - radar is underestimating the intensity. Should be here in about 90 minutes.

Lots of rain in the fire zone, but the damage will be done. Those little towns south of Lorne are impossible to defend against a big fire.

BTW wettest day for 2015 at Olympic Park (Melbourne) was July 13 with 28.4mm. Be interesting if we can pass that.

Wind change through here at 4am. They don't come much more dramatic as overnight wind changes.


Here's the latest radar for future reference.

I think I may just score the double today, great rain in the morning and clearing enough by lunchtime to allow the family to be outside for the afternoon.