The Australian Weather Forum

Shocked to see EC abandon ship with this morning's run, now only giving us 3.8mm on Sunday.
GFS still going for 10-25mm, so still hopeful there.
EC seems more interested in Boxing Day with 25mm for us (but then it was interested in this Sunday up until today).
I wonder if I'll live long enough to see the models hold firm with their forecasts 10 days out, probably not.

Shocked to see EC abandon ship with this morning's run, now only giving us 3.8mm on Sunday.

Been the story since mid year. Classic drought signature.. rain disappears as you get closer. The rain we've got has tended to be surprise rain.

EC is the outlier at this stage, with GFS and ACCESS much wetter, so kinda hopeful that the EC model will upgrade. Still pretty confident of 10-20mm here.

Bit worried about the temps and wind. Saturday is going to be scorching and Sunday's front is getting pushed back and wil be hot and windy early. Reminds me of the set up early last year (on the Sunday when we got the Warrandyte and Kilmore fires). Bit over the dry and heat which has become so common in Vic The last time we had a cool summer was 2001/2002..

Humidity seems to be increasing over Australia. It will mix up and decrease during the day, but it's not single numbers anymore. This can help to reduce the fire risk and perhaps even some showers (No lightening please)

36 here now, correctly predicted by y weather station, despite the 34 forecast by BoM.

I'm now predicting 40 tomorrow and 41 Saturday based on that.

I suppose it doesn't matter whether it's 35 or 40. Hot is hot...

Yep I agree
40 for next 2 days fr Sure

Does anyone have a good link for an index of the dryness /evaporation
Currently over Vic
Going camping over the Jan period in Otways and need to be up to date
I know it's bloody dry just about everywhere but would like keep tabs

Currently a 10 degree difference between Geelong & Laverton.

Going to sweat it out riding home in this 37 degree heat. At least there's no northerly head wind to worry about.

The forecast maximum temperatures in Launceston over the next three days are 33,32 and 32. If this happens it would be one of the rare occasions that we will have had three consecutive days of 32 and above. It reached 29 degrees in Launceston today.

Stinker of a day. Over the heat already... Feels and looks more like the last week of Jan than mid Dec.

Two more scorchers to come. Hoping a bit of cloud and wafting sea breezes might take the edge off Fri/Sat for us in FC, but inland will fry.

Lots of spots looking at runs at records - e.g., Adelaide headed for 6 40C days for December (old record in 4). North Tas forecast to have record runs and chatter that Sat night could well be record hot for Melbourne

Going camping over the Jan period in Otways and need to be up to date

It's record dry down there. That won't change materially (unless they get some freak rain). Friend in Geelong has only see 50mm since start of August. He reckons the trees are suffering and they're really concerned about fires. The rain maps at http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... k&area=nat" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; are updated daily.

Thanks ver much Hillybilly

Wilko, my parents also live close to that area, and they've mentioned it's definitely one of the drier years they've experienced in a while, alas they said they're also concerned about fires this year, more grass than forest given their position. However, the Otways are always a high risk over Summer due to the vegetation growth in the actual national parks ... it's that thick some years the CFA and DELWP have trouble getting in. Given what my parents have said, and David of course, Otways would be very dry already.

Models are wavering a little with the rainfall with the upcoming system as has been mentioned. I honestly think GFS and ACCESS will downgrade a bit further before Sunday, and will meet EC somewhere in the middle. Change timing is the key as to if we see a scorcher Sunday or escape most of the heat. Models are struggling at determining the exact timing - was later, then went in earlier, now seems to be early-to-mid afternoon for Central parts. Will have to wait and see as we get closer.

What is certain is that fire danger is likely to be quite high on Saturday (and tomorrow). I notice an "extreme" rating for the Southwest Saturday with "severe" generally elsewhere, but wouldn't be surprised to see "extreme" upgraded to other districts given the wind conditions. A TFB issued already for Saturday across the entire state and across the Southwest, Wimmera, North Central and Central districts for tomorrow. Sunday may see further TFB's.

Looking a little further out, the heat really doesn't go that far, not flushed out at all. Warming back up for Christmas Eve with temps likely in the 30's, and then appears to be a change day on Christmas Day. ACCESS has another relatively hot to very hot day before a late change, but GFS moves things through quicker.

My two cents worth

I just see it as a bloody hot couple of days. Typical summer weather and typical dry weather.

This is normal. It's an El nino year too so it exacerbates the whole situation

EC upped rain for Sunday which is a "relief". Not big falls, but enough to settle the dust - seems to be 5-15mm across central areas, and 10mm in FC. Other models are similar.

Also, progs have quite a few showers (I'm guess high based) tomorrow. Humidity stays moderate for which will take the edge of things.

Looks very promising for a major storm outbreak next weeks with showers/storms starting around Tuesday and peaking on xmas day. EC has falls to 50mm... would be a very welcome xmas present

This is normal. It's an El nino year too so it exacerbates the whole situation

Sadly no. The record dry affecting western parts has gone on for years (many spots back to 1997). The heat is also abnormal.... just too many records being broken.

Haven't been paying much attention, so excuse my ignorance, but I find it annoying that Total Fire Bans are no longer listed in the warning section of Victoria on the BoM site.

Perhaps someone can give a yell out to them. I might send feedback to them.

27 degrees at the moment. I think now that today COULD end up hotter than tomorrow due to less cloud

hillybilly » Fri Dec 18, 2015 7:06 am wrote:

hillybilly wrote:EC upped rain for Sunday which is a "relief". Not big falls, but enough to settle the dust - seems to be 5-15mm across central areas, and 10mm in FC. Other models are similar.

Also, progs have quite a few showers (I'm guess high based) tomorrow. Humidity stays moderate for which will take the edge of things.

Looks very promising for a major storm outbreak next weeks with showers/storms starting around Tuesday and peaking on xmas day. EC has falls to 50mm... would be a very welcome xmas present

Hope your right, we all desperately need something. I've never done so much garden watering in my life, and it's proving quite a challenge with two properties to manage.

A storm outbreak certainly would be a very welcome Christmas pressie, and surely between my trips to Wandong, Burnside Heights & Cowes that day I'll get to at least see something.

Still under south easterly influenced winds here. Surprised it hasnt swung North already.

I noticed the wind direction on the bike this morning too. Thought for sure I would of been riding in with a northerly tail wind behind me.

Going to be a real stinker today. Was just outside to check the mail, very steamy already.

Strong Northerlies here gusting to 20 knots and 33.6c. Even Stronger Northerlies at Melbourne AP and 35 there.
Interesting to see southerly winds in Geelong and only 24c - weak trough gone through there perhaps?

Strong Northerlies here gusting to 20 knots and 33.6c. Even Stronger Northerlies at Melbourne AP and 35 there.
Interesting to see southerly winds in Geelong and only 24c - weak trough gone through there perhaps?

I can't quite work out what's going on either. We are in south easterlies here according to the local Laverton station.