Hot and thundery - Tropical moisture feed - Jan 4 to 14 2015

[I_Love_Storms]

Bom don't want to go all in this early on most models have massive totals though

[Didjman]

My Arthritic back has been "forecasting" this for a couple of days.
A painfull if usefull forecasting tool.
Peter

[StratoBendigo]

Even Access-G has got into the action with a deep low bombing over Eastern Bass Strait. My confidence that we will get big rains is increasing.

As for historical parallels in the 1980s, Mid-January 1984 and New Year's Day 1988 are in the ballpark.

[dazrain]

The last time all models were going for 50mm+ scores was the great floods of 2011.
Also, the monsoon is currently very widespread from WA across NT and north QLD - this gives a good margin of error for our system and it's tropical drawing source

[I_Love_Storms]

Hmm it is looking good all models seem to be coverging and agreeing on a big system(s). Expecting anywhere from 50-200mm here. Need to quickly clean the gutters!

[johnno]

StratoBendigo I was thinking more March 1983 at the back of the 1982/83 El Nino very similar set up if the models are correct.

In recent times it also looks like a similar set up to January 2007, January 2011 systems and late Feb/early March system of 2012 when Essendon FC went to Wangaratta by bus and roads were flooded.

Speaking of Jan 07, Jan 11, Jan 15? Have we started a 4 year cycle thing in Jan here? We shall see!

[stevco123]

OK, GFS is getting ridiculous now. 175-200mm. Really?

If it doesn't do its usual downgrade 12 hours before the event, then WOW!!

But ofcourse looking at the bom forecast, one would think that it's just another "maybe" event with 5mm max.

[Onetahuti]

The Bureau's official WATL forecast (a model bias corrected average forecast).

GFS and EC are unchanged this morning.

I had looked at the chart they published last night (widespread 50 mm plus falls throughout Victoria) earlier this morning but this one is a substantial upgrade on it. If this one was to come off there will be major flooding throughout Melbourne and other Victorian areas. My water tanks will more than just overflow.

[Gordon]

Looking at GFS especially, starting to become a case of, be careful what you wish for .

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah...would be an exciting weather event but very frustrating and upsetting as well for a lot of people if the flooding occurred, which it definitely would if there was a widespread 200mm. Feb 4 2011 I think some places in the south east of Melb had 150mm in the night? You'd hope the rainfall would be spread over the 4 days rather than a lot of it hitting in one go

[stevco123]

Yeah...would be an exciting weather event but very frustrating and upsetting as well for a lot of people if the flooding occurred, which it definitely would if there was a widespread 200mm. Feb 4 2011 I think some places in the south east of Melb had 150mm in the night? You'd hope the rainfall would be spread over the 4 days rather than a lot of it hitting in one go

Looking back at my weather station records for that period:
February 4th 2011 - 109.0mm
February 5th 2011 - 49.3mm

Total 9am-9am rain 149.8mm for 5th Feb, most falling between 7pm and 10pm and then again 2am to 6am.

100mm in 4 hours.

Total February rain = 242.8mm

I will never forget the amount of water on the night of 4 Feb between 7pm and 9pm.

Onetahuti (and others around the Dandenong area), you may be interested to look at http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... 204/mdaily" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Onetahuti]

Looking back at my weather station records for that period:
February 4th 2011 - 109.0mm
February 5th 2011 - 49.3mm

Total 9am-9am rain 149.8mm for 5th Feb.

100mm in 4 hours.

Total February rain = 242.8mm

I will never forget the amount of water on the night of 4 Feb between 7pm and 9pm.

Onetahuti (and others around the Dandenong area), you may be interested to look at http://www.wunderground.com/personal-we ... 204/mdaily" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I remember that night well, do have the obs for that day somewhere but not sure, knew that they were around the 150 mms in the 24 hours. Earlier in the week I was watering from the water tank by bucket, went off and forgot that I had not turned the tap off, came back to a near empty tank, three days later it was overflowing and the backyard was a lake.
The road crossing the creek from us was under more water than I think I had ever seen before.

[stevco123]

And the downgrade has begun on GFS (as usual). Now forecasting 50-75 mm over a week.

Here's hope it is just a temporary downgrade.

[I_Love_Storms]

It's always going to jump around this far out. ACCESS and GFS have pushed it a bit further east for now. Whatever happens it looks like there is going to be an extremely large and significant rain event affecting Vic, just depends on what parts.

[I_Love_Storms]

Hmm latest GFS throwing it further east...

[stevco123]

I knew this would happen. Lucky I don't get too excited too early.

We can only hope it comes back onboard

[droughtbreaker]

Well, many of us said they expected it to jump around a lot from run to run and model to model and that's exactly what we are seeing.

It's still basically 4+ days out from the main system so still a lot of uncertainty. GFS is often very jittery with these sort of systems. It's 200mm (never going to happen widespread) one run and then 25mm the next and it moves the lows and troughs around like crazy. I still reckon EC is the most reliable model so we will see what it says.

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest BOM forecast is good, rain forecast from Wednesday to Sunday, rain at times from Friday to Sunday with 70% chance of rain each day.

[stevco123]

Latest BOM forecast is good, rain forecast from Wednesday to Sunday, rain at times from Friday to Sunday with 70% chance of rain each day.

The only negative is that there is still 30% chance it won't rain :0

[johnno]

And latest EC throws it slightly further west