The Australian Weather Forum

Woken around 5am by lightning and thunder and about 2 minutes of heavy rain. Radar showed an isolated cluster of very small cells drifting past and we got a direct hit. Very unusual, and a continuation of events earlier this year where we were getting rain from all sorts of unusual directions, and gives me hope that we're going to get hit by something big in this upcoming event, even if the models are backing off.
Warm sun out now, things are going to go off today!

You can still see those thundery showers from overnight on the radar, slowly clearing eastwards. Very lucky Geoff! Managed to see some cumulus this morning, looked quite unstable as I was heading into work.

Today does look quite good for further shower and thunderstorm activity, especially if you are over the eastern half of Victoria. Unstable, good moisture profile, lovely upper temperatures and very warm surface heating should allow for a redevelopment this afternoon. A few severe storms possible too! As David mentioned, the further west you go the less likely you are to see any activity, however I wouldn't rule out the western districts entirely. A trough moving into that region later today may just be enough to get the odd storm or two going.

As for tomorrow, the trough looks to be in Melbourne around 11am, and development will be anywhere east of that trough. Looking particularly nasty for storms tomorrow, likely to see quite a few warnings issued. If there are to be any storms in Melbourne, they'll have to be in the morning hours.

Does appear that models have downgraded quite a bit. They remain very unstable though, and it seems we (Victoria) are just on the cusp of the instability for the most part. If only it would shift a little bit further south.

Well, some promising cloud formed over here and it looked and smelt very stormy, but its now passed and we have hot sun out again and mostly clear skies...will anything form yet or was that it?, the humidity and heat is definetly there!

Same here James. The temp dropped 2ºC before that to 33 now it's back up to 35. Hum 31% and DP is 16ºC.

With these set ups, storms usually form just East of me. So I'm not holding my breath.

Had maybe a minutes worth of moderate rain 30 minutes ago, hardly dampened the concrete.

All of a sudden it's a "nothing to see her" scenario for this week.

Baa humbug

Yes, massive downgrades all round, but with this set up I wouldn't rule anything out yet, could still be a big event, all in the lap of the gods.
0.4mm in the city at 4.30pm, where did that come from???

EC has a little bit through wed and Thursday here up to 20mm I think still could do well just need to see how it shapes up over next few days prob be hit or miss hardly anything or quite a lots with some storms

Weather fail again!

The forcefield has evaporated the storms again and pushed them northeast again! $ydney has stolen our storms yet again!

It was way too dry today for all central areas. There was a lot of low level moisture near the coast and bays, but dried right out through the middle layers as the day progressed. A few decent Cu congestus went up around 2pm but fell apart rapidly, and the rest was all just high based fluff, at least from my vantage point.

Very hot one across the state today as well. Western districts and lower lying areas north of the ranges all in the mid 30s to 40C.

Tomorrow looks hot again, only a little milder than yesterday for us here, and again starting off rather humid but drying out as the day goes on. Storms should be more widespread for eastern VIC than today, but most central areas will see another baking summer day.

At this stage Wednesday/Thursday are looking good for more widespread showers/rain, but again it is a little up in the air with respect to where the inland low ends up. We need it to pass south through the state rather than stay north. NSW and SE QLD set to get soaked but we remain on the edge, and it is very frustrating with summer now here and things rapidly drying out.

TheFishmanAU » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:21 pm wrote:

TheFishmanAU wrote:Weather fail again!

The forcefield has evaporated the storms again and pushed them northeast again! $ydney has stolen our storms yet again!

In all honesty, if you are someone who is passionate about thunderstorms and gets bored and frustrated when they don't occur, Melbourne and Victoria in general is probably not the best place to be living.

Temperate areas, and especially those with maritime climate (like most of VIC), are some of the least thunderstorm prone areas in the world (other than the temperate oceans and Antarctic/Arctic areas.) Sometimes we get outbreaks of tropical origin air masses and see a whole heap of storms over a period of several days and some can get quite severe. This is the exception though, not the rule.

Some people should try living in Melbourne's western suburbs. It is the meteorological boredom zone of Melbourne. You guys living out the eastern side have no idea just how good you have it.

Lots of wind out here this morning. Not really expecting much to happen here today.

Skywalker wrote:Some people should try living in Melbourne's western suburbs. It is the meteorological boredom zone of Melbourne. You guys living out the eastern side have no idea just how good you have it.
Lots of wind out here this morning. Not really expecting much to happen here today.

I think us easterners are well aware of how much more "weather" we get over this side of town Skywalker, it baffles me how a weather addict can put up with living over the west side of town, it would drive me nuts!

Quite bizarre last night, another tiny thunderstorm around 5am, that is two nights in a row. Very blustery wind here too that picked up overnight.
I think we'll be unlucky not to get a shower or two today as they're already approaching from the N/W.

It does look like we will have plenty of chances at least as the high stays just to the south of us and the inland is dominated by low pressure. A number of potential troughs and lows for the next 10 days.

A few 'mini' showers passing through here. The last one was reasonably heavy, but at only around 30-60 seconds each it's not even enough to wet the ground.

A bit of early development would be nice, before the trough comes through. Even if it's just 5mm or so I would be happy. Odds are stacked against it though for my area and westwards.

We don't get too many storms here in the Central North of Tassie but we had a couple of good ones this morning. 8.2 mm in the gauge and still very unsettled. It didn't get below 15 degrees last night which is quite unusual.

Geoff » Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:19 am wrote:

Geoff wrote: I think us easterners are well aware of how much more "weather" we get over this side of town Skywalker, it baffles me how a weather addict can put up with living over the west side of town, it would drive me nuts!

I think you should give it a try sometime Geoff.
I guess that's the price one pays when you end up marrying someone from this side of Melbourne. I'm still working on moving from here trust me.

Now back to the topic at hand, certainly was a warm ride into work this morning. Had that wind behind me so that was certainly a positive. Some showers starting to push through here as I type.

Add thunder to that.

Skywalker wrote: Now back to the topic at hand, certainly was a warm ride into work this morning. Had that wind behind me so that was certainly a positive. Some showers starting to push through here as I type.

And the 'price' we pay is riding into headwinds on days like this Got some very light showers on the ride in this morning, then some big fat drops just as I arrived at work.

Nope, today is one of those lucky days as the wind will be switching around to the south by the time I finish work. Tail wind coming home as well.

The last of the showers seems to be pushing through here now, so I'd say that's it for us.

Nice Cb going up north and North East of the CBD. Storms in the north east of the state look wild, 3cm hail reported in Albury according to Bom.

What a disappointment big noise and lightning and 1mm rain in gauge total 3.5mm so far.