What are chances of "super cell" storms this season?
If we get storms as early as September, I can assume we could be in for a bit of heavier activity through Dec/Jan and maybe later on in March again?
Cheers.
Hi DM,
I think we can look forward to enhanced storm activity this spring, perhaps commencing through the latter half of September as temps finally begin to warm a bit and the westerly belt ends up moving south a little more allowing troughs and moisture to build up over the inland.
I think there is a good chance of exceeding rainfall this year in the spring and summer months with heavy thunderstorms. Once the monsoon kicks in over the north it could spark something along the lines of the past few years for us.
So something to look forward too. Predicting supercells as such is a little more tricky so it will come down to following us on the forum through discussion and watching the forecasts as for looking out for the next possible event.
Congratulations Ben!! Nice work. Will find out more about this Victorian Storm Chasers!!!
Cloud thickening now. Sun was nice today! A little rain likely over peak hour.
Nothings changed, still looking good. Should see a decent system Thursday and Friday with some big falls on the ranges, another one early next week, and then a trend of bigger systems to follow.
Still struggling to get any semblance of Spring happening, its trying its best but the westerly belt and LWt is just too strong for the time being.
As soon as we get some heat, which is building in the interior, we will open the gate for some heat lows and mositure to feed south.
Yeah the bigger systems dependent upon moisture, but looking like a series of cold fronts for the week and into next week.
Hopefully some good falls across the state again this week but nothing to flood towns etc... So we will watch that.
Quite windy out there at the moment, looking like we could get a little bit of rain but not a whole lot, perhaps enough to wet the ground. Have to wait till Wed/Thurs.
Yep should certainly be an interesting period of weather, and what fascinates me is the continued developments in model prognostics of cut-off low pressure systems. Models continue to form them through the extended period, and I suspect cut-offs will have a large role this Spring, or at least an obvious role.
Tonight's weakening cold front will slip southeast so that's why we are seeing some patchy light rain and isolated showers through parts of the south and even north. Most of it should clear overnight or early morning. Tomorrow is an 'inbetween' front day with generally fresh to strong northwesterly winds that will become gusty ahead of the next front that will reach the west at night. Expecting a bit of instability ahead of it so isolated showers again a feature during the afternoon/evening which will tend scattered near the ranges and in the southwest. Brief risk of thunder too. This front itself should bring better showery conditions for the entire state on Thursday and some rain areas. Hail and thunder as well. Watch for stream rises in the northeast and southwest. And watch for very strong winds on Friday as the low to the south passes on by.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
And that warmer air has arrived this morning. Quite a mild night - one of the warmer ones since Autumn. Northerly winds were up all night.
A bit of rain in the NE and North Central this morning but only around 1-3mm.
Still looking windy and westerly and this could impede high rainfall but ensure rain on most days. Might have to take the rain areas off the forecast come later in the week and bring it back to just a few showers. Could still be some reasonable convection around though on Fri/Sun.
Some thundery showers moving through SA at the moment, will reach the west this afternoon and Central areas tonight. Could be a spark or two in the west with middle level instability and evelated temps.
Could see some very high temps across NSW today. We were close to getting 25C weather here today!
Certainly spring Like conditions today. Very windy last night up to 25 knots on my weather station in the early hours.
The wind kept the temperature high. My minimun was 13.2c the warmest night of the winter, warmest night since May 9 at my place.
Looking forward to some colder comditions over the next couple of days - dont like warm weather in winter.
In fact I wish our winters were about 5 degrees cooler - that would make things interesting
Dane wrote:Certainly spring Like conditions today. Very windy last night up to 25 knots on my weather station in the early hours.
The wind kept the temperature high. My minimun was 13.2c the warmest night of the winter, warmest night since May 9 at my place.
Looking forward to some colder comditions over the next couple of days - dont like warm weather in winter.
In fact I wish our winters were about 5 degrees cooler - that would make things interesting
It would be more like Vancouver or London with an average temp of 8 rather than 13 and we'd more often see rain mixed with sleet than actual snow unless during one of our cold outbreaks
Speaking of cold outbreaks if it doesn't come off early september ala 1995 then i think it's curtains this winter starting now. Snow down to 800m however forecasted on sunday which indicates a max of 13. BOM going for 14
hey all, im FINALLY moving into my new house on mt macedon, can anyone give me good news re. the weather tomorrow? The man with the van is coming from 1pm, i hope its not going to be too wet.
Does that 800m snow for sunday include my area? Or just the eastern ranges? I know its getting late in the season but i think anything is possible at Mt Macedon! definitely through september, up to the equinox or a bit beyond. Winter keeps its grip nice and tight up there.
Looking forward to reporting from MM instead of here on the farm in Macedon.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
Yes, 14.9c here as well, really mild for August but totally ruined by a howling wind all day which made it feel cooler, still we're gradually inching closer to spring.
Wind wasn't as bad as I thought it was going to be, for at home anyway, so temperatures managed to reach to a lovely mild 16.3 degrees, which is what it's currently sitting at.
Will be updating the forecasts this evening; at around 7pm. Stay tuned, including for the audio briefing.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
I see Melbourne's temperature topped 20 today, ending the 90 day streak of <20°C temperatures. I remember Johnno had a list of longest streaks below 20°C temps a couple of years ago, would this year be high up on that list?
Beautiful day here today, very very gusty through the day though. First day that I've really felt the heat of the sun.
