Victoria: Unstable period and cold outbreak - 7th - 12th Jan

[johnno]

EC has 20c Tops from this mornings run.. While GFS this Afternoon is no better if anything mabye even slightly cooler. Yep A shower or two 25c in Fresh Southerly winds yep that makes real sense

[Supercellimpact]

Johnno why is that so funny ?

[johnno]

Cos you don't get a strong high in the Bight with 850 temps around 2-3c next Wednesday night Thursday morning with cloud & Scattered showers and a fresh to strong SSW airstream & 25c in Melbourne hasn't ever happen and won't

[Supercellimpact]

Oh ok

[adon]

Heading off for a "buck's" weekend fishing near Robinvale.......sounds like we are gonna get wet. Oh well pack the yabby nets!

[Anthony Violi]

Still persisting with 25...Johnno remember this the CBDesert...might be 18 in the burbs where the real temps are, the city is corrupted as we know, i reckon a total fire ban should be issued there.

Im liking the look of whats coming, very active period by the looks, 28 day rainfall shows rain on every day bar 2, and now feb is forecasting a decile 7, instead of a ludicrous decile 1.

Locally, looks like the models are starting to warm to the 25mm+ statewide scenario, recognizing the cold air interaction with the warm humid air being dragged down ahead of the system. Should be a decent band of rain and embedded thunderstorms.

Wednesdays system shows a nice intense shortwave that should give us a nice coldsnap with plenty of showers.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, a nice looking system for tomorrow night and Sunday with heaps of moisture and a nice temp gradient coming through, it's looking good for 10-25mm statewide. After that it looks like quite a few showery days on the cards. The bay is now 22.5C with a very sharp rise after that heatwave. This will ensure there is a lot of energy available for central VIC once the cold pool comes in with Wednesday looking very active on and south of the ranges. Cool to mild temps should prevail for most of the southern half of the state with at least a couple of days likely under 20C in Melbourne suburbs and maximums as low as mid teens on the central ranges on Wednesday.

CBD will struggle to ever get a day under 20C in summer again, unless there is a major outbreak of Antarctic air it just doesn't happen anymore, the CBD is basically a massive heater these days.

[johnno]

UK has 10-25mm for us, EC now has gone from 3mm few days ago to 30mm for the system GFS has 25mm+ as well.

[stevco123]

It's my birthday this sunday and all I want is a private show from my true love. So come on weather...please give me a beautiful light and sound show with a months rain in an hour.

[crikey]

Whoa! Really excited about this event. The national loop radar is looking fantastic tonight where you can clearly see the wrap into the intensifying low.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national ... loop.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The characteristic comma formation from the wrapping cloud and good organization. The BOM 4 day synoptic predicting the pressure of that low will drop to a whopping 967 hpascals .. at 10am sunday morning n/west of tasmania. The western quadrant of 'tassie' will be diabolical on sunday! ( weather watch)
WATL wind forecast is indicating we will experience the outer periphery of this low with a wind change and front( north south alignment) in the west of the state on Saturday at 4pm.( prime storm time l believe)around the Dunolly longitude at 4pm. At that time WATL wind indicating a trough to the east at the same time.
Also indicating some strong westerlies in the western quadrant of the state on sunday 4pm
but especially and more so for the southern coastal parts also at 4pm. So hold on to your hats southerners!! ( 60km/hr wind.. plus gusts)

As the low is strong and has full rotation there should be a steady supply of rain bands emanating from its clockwise rotation. Sunday looking the best for maximum effect.
The eastern quadrant seems to have the best of the troughy area, whereas Western quadrant seem to have the best effect from rainbands and cyclonic low from the spiralling intensifying low
BOM forecast explorer is not prepared to go above 50mm rain max( possible higher totals)in a few isolated areas mainly in the middle quadrant of VIC.
I will be very surprised if this cyclonic mid latitude low doesn't do some serious damage somewhere.
A center of 967hpascals is not an ordinary low. It is a very dangerous low. Glad it is predicted to keep out at sea and moving away. Phew!
I still can't believe that.. 967 hpascals!!!
The nasty tail all ready well defined in the bight and things are only beginning. I believe when they have tails like that , then they mean business..
Going to be a GREAT weather watch.

[Meso]

Struggling to get excited about the wknd, looks like more of a rain event then anything. Storms sadly lacking. Haven't done much analysis, so my question is, what's the missing ingredient for good storms? Usually when we get a trough this time of year with heat it means storms, yet the instability isn't there.

[Anthony Violi]

Instability is fine meso, too much moisture through the mid layers so storms cant fire in clear air, and if the do they explode over a whole state they flatten out anyway and ruin the next day...just have to take what we can get, i think we will actually see a good deal of storms in the rain band with this one. And possibly beginning as a decent storm event tomorrow arvo through the western half.

[crikey]

Stevco123
I found this for you. from BSCH . GFS model scenario.
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast. ... #stormcast" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Barom pressure of 1000hpascals and some decent rainfall hitting on Melbourne Sunday morning 10am.according to this model'

Good chance your wish may come true

A nice picture of low wrapping and intensifying on national radar tonight ( friday).

[stevco123]

Thanks crikey, I always like reading your detailed posts. I still think the timing of any rain and duration is up in the air. It could start as early as tomorrow afternoon and not stop until sunday night. Or it could be a lot shorter duration.

[Didjman]

My God!! Just noticed how fast the cirrus is moving from the west!!!!!!!!!!! Batten down the hatches folks - some SERIOUS wind ahead!
Peter

[typhoon29]

muggy and overcast, slight NE wind. A few spits from the thickening StratusCu (More Strata than Cu mind you). Looking forward till this afternoon when it should get more interesting. I hope we get a full game of cricket in today.

[Pane]

G'day

Well if Vic is going to get the wind we just had here at cadell in sa, then look out. Got real nasty for about 2hours now it's starting to back off with the rain passing.

Have fun

Cheers

[crikey]

A number of weather stations in the wimmera and malleee are reporting very strong winds ahead of the change. , as winds changing from north to northwesterly
Hopetoun airport
3pm 54km/hr winds with 64 km'hr gusts at 3pm as wind is shifting toward the N/ west
3.30pm gust of 80km/hr
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60801 ... 4838.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Horsham airport
3pm obs' 52km/hr winds with gust recorded at 74 km/hr!!

Mid level alto stratus now changing to flat grey cloud to the west

[Lily]

I'm taking some of the young cricket lads in to see the Big Bash game tonight at the MCG, starting to wonder how much cricket we're going to see???

[crikey]

Some amazing dew point statistics in SA today as the change is progressing over there.
For example Kadina in the Yorke peninsula had a dew point of 9.6 deg c at 6.30am and has steadily increased with a northerly persisting during the day and is now a whopping 21.2 deg C at 3pm still with despite a still present northerly flow of wind. Some decent wind there today
29 deg c was the highest temp at kadina with a northerly wind flow. ( must be the cloud cover?)
The cooler westerly wind change has still not arrived in Adelaide yet.
currently at port Lincoln at the line of thunderstorms firing up there. That change is not likely to reach many parts of vic well into the night or tomorow depending where you are
The s/west Vic looks to get that change first by the looks of radar .
Should fire up some great storms with dew points like that.
The dew points in the western quadrant are starting to climb very fast!
Nhill aerodrome had a dew point of 3.8 deg c at 2.30pm and now at 17.1 deg c at 4pm!!
That is an increase of 12.9 deg c dew point in one and a half hours. Ooohly doolie!~!
There must be some decent moisture moving in with the n/west cloud band!
You would think that those stats look good for tonight and tomorrow?