Vic - Potential showers/storms - 21st Dec to Boxing Day 2011

[crikey]

According to 4 day BOM synoptic prognosis
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
From wednesday to at least friday. The whole, all of Australia is under an area of low pressure.. Could be up to 3 TS 's in the north by friday.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

THe wind map showing a troughy type outlook from this wednesday to Xmas day for VIC showing the best of the action on Boxing day ( Monday 4.00am )with a strong wind change and front line coming in from the west and moving quickly across VIC as a result of a small low that forms just off S/west VIC in the bass strait. on Xmas day.


However even on Xmas day.. it is showing Northerlies streaming down from the north in the morning from a high to the east in the tasman. bringin in mosture fro TS development in the tasman ( just below a TS/TC? off the Queensland coast.) and meeting an easterly stream from the tasman along the southern coast near Melbourne.
I don't think that scenario would be fine weather for the southern quadrant. ?
Looks troughy in the east and south of the state in the morning . By 4pm a low in the s/west and trough in the east of state
So low pressure einfluence from a low in the western quadrant and a trough in the eastern quadrant
The northerlies ramping up on Xmas morning ahead of a change that is IN SA on XMAS morning. The wind map SA coast ( Adelaide has the action on Xmas morning, potentially getting smashed)) Double low complex on the coast. A low forming just south of the Yorke peninsula.
A very complex and potentially turbulent flow of wind fro Adelaide on Xmas morning. Wonder what Storm cast thinks about Adelaide?

Still 6 day out. I suppose there is hope the high coming from the west may arrive early? Wishful thinking atm.

Because of the 3 significant areas of low pressure cell TC/TS..developing this week.in the north of OZ and their unpredictability. could upset current prognosis?

Personally. I am just astonished at the intensity of the area of low pressure influence over much of Australia that we will be exposed to in the coming week or longer.
Going to be an interesting week.. Any Tropical infeeds from the northern parts of OZ might become a concern..

What are the forecast rainfall totals for this period. Wondering if this could get nasty? Storms /rain?

Infeeds from tasman and n/west WA where there is significant TS development. Moisture potential could be very high

Looking awfully wet somewhere?

[aussiestormfreak]

Ah yes! Those pics I just saw remind me of the 2006 White Christmas... collected roughly 40mm from that event, had no snow but torrents of rain and small hail, a few lightning strikes as well, best Christmas ever weatherwise!!

A humid, stormy Christmas would be heaps better than a warm to hot, dry one

[I_Love_Storms]

GFS still throwing up quite a significant event the last few runs. Good trend I say.

[Supercellimpact]

Looks like a eastern Vic event according to GFS. It's barely got anything progged for here and EC has 8mm so I agree. But Im hoping for a storm but NE Vic(ranges also) looks the hot spot.

[Meso]

GFS starting to calm down now, as well shifting a lot of the instability in to NSW. Lost count of how many times I've seen this happen.

[I_Love_Storms]

I reckon it'll come back. Also think latest ec is flawed. I reckon either 25 or 26 will be a big rain or storm event for some part of the state, just hoping it lines up for central.

[Anthony Violi]

The cyclone in the Tasman is throwing the models a touch. Still looks like a good few days of activity, high moisture again, and the trough is in our preferred position, dipping in from NSW which always provides good activity for us.

Most models also giving the NT a cyclone as well, which may inject even more moisture into the interior, the danger signs are starting to appear again.

[Meso]

I think there will definitely be some decent storms somewhere in the state (east most likely) 23rd through 26th. Losing faith in the widespread event that GFS was keen on a few runs back though, but will gladly be proven wrong.

[crikey]

Wind map forecast has brought the main event forward into Christmas day atm.
It has removed the low in the west of the bass strait and shows a clockwise flow or very small developing and intensifying low in the center of western Vic, Xmas morning 10am and moving quickly to the east of the state by 4pm . Taking only 6hrs to cross the state.
On that scenario would be rain and storm activity for all of the state of Vic at some time on Christmas day.
Poor BOM staff working on XMAS day issuing warnings!
Cool firm southerlies in the west of the state by 4pm Christmas day as a strong elongated high pushes east
The wind map indicates SA's main event also brought forward to now be on Christmas eve, Saturday atm
The South Aust looking wet and stormy on the Saturday
Storm chasing and weather watching on Christmas day in VIC . Ho Ho HO

However still 4-5 days to go. Still time for some more updates
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HarleyB]

There is actually a chance of storms for 6 days starting from tomorrow in Vic. Tomorrow to Friday should see isolated storms on the Eastern ranges and North East, becoming more scattered on Friday. Currently Saturday through Monday is looking very juicy for more widespread and severe activity.

I am in Echuca from Friday night for a week. Will I have more chance of seeing storms there, or is there a better chance in Seymour on this occasion?

[stratospear]

Lots of divergence in the forecast models atm. As usual GFS is going crazy for Southern and Eastern Vic (100mm+ at the Southern end of Port Philip Bay ... pity those who might be camping along the beach these holidays), EC and BOM have the bulk of the rain way out East in Gippsland.

[johnno]

ACCESS has 20-40mm through Central Victoria and Melbourne

[I_Love_Storms]

Starting to get excited. They've been onto this for about 48 hours now, on and off. I am expecting decent instability for Christmas day in a lot of central areas now, cavorting east and south central. Still a fair way off but becoming accustom to gfs runs and got the feeling that decent storms now very possible on Xmas day and boxing day. Update: 18z shows carnage and would be borderline statewide flood emergency. The consistency of these type of outputs is increasing as are the chances the event will be a ripper.

[Meso]

Yeah, it still can't settle on where the bulls-eye is going to be, but something is brewing for sure between xmas eve and boxing day.

[daviescr]

Certainly looking impressive. The Sydney - Hobart race will be interesting to say the least

[Mikew]

Absolutely..may be one of those lows bombing in Eastern bass straight !

[Jake Smethurst]

Certainly does look interesting nonetheless, models having difficulty thanks to the two tropical cyclones expected to form within the Australian region.

But we are certain that isolated showers and thunderstorms will be a feature from today until at least Monday, beginning on the northeast ranges this afternoon. In fact the thunderstorm chart has been just released, see links below. Areas at risk today generally appear to be Echuca stretching southward towards Melbourne then eastward along the northeast ranges. A trough within the vicinity is causing the instability there today, whereas extra lift along the ranges may provide that support to initiate some activity. Shear seems to be a problem today with stationary activity likely, but moisture is rather low as well, nevertheless flash flooding a concern if any activity develops.

Risk increases during Thursday as the trough moves closer and we see a bit more of an increase in moisture for the northeast. Again mostly the eastern ranges at risk for isolated showers/thunderstorms tomorrow during the afternoon with the ranges once again providing extra forcing, and flash flooding a concern again with slow movement in thunderstorms.

Friday becomes a little more interesting, but models generally diverging on where the best activity and where most activity will form. Official AWF forecasts states isolated showers/thunderstorms generally possible anywhere, however the greatest risk will be along any of the ranges where extra forcing is likely. Better moisture on Friday as well through most parts so flash flooding a concern once again and even damaging winds.

On current model guidance, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, shower and thunderstorm activity should be a little more widespread than previous days, and possible generally anywhere. Good through most parts, strong instability, troughs within the region and hot surface temperatures should allow for good development. Flash flooding and damaging winds the biggest concern re: severe phenomena.

And at this stage, Monday looks like some sort of system moving through with milder conditions and reintroducing a much more stable atmosphere for Tuesday. Timing and type of the system is uncertain, perhaps a front or even a cut-off low, in the afternoon in the west, but likely to change with the high variability of models at the moment, so could be another thundery one on Monday as well ahead of the system. Some large falls are being progged with GFS and some other models with this system come Monday, so something to watch very closely.

[Supercellimpact]

GFS slowly bringing the heavy falls further west. Looks like a cut off low ATM and then bombing SE to destroy the Sydney to Hobart race.

[Rhino]

As I mentioned earlier, as far as GFS goes, the most important part of the equation at the moment is it still has decent/big falls forecast around the state which is great, as long as you want that of course. Won't start pinpointing where the larger falls might be until 48 or even 24 hrs before the system develops so don't worry about it forecasting big falls over melbourne one run then over portland the next run just as long as it has them . Looks good for some big storms around the state though.

Rhino.

[tonycynic]

Hoping we get something on the 25th, work has an early finish for me, 3-4pm so should have time to go chasing if anything comes up and there is nothing on the telly so might as well shoot storms.