Victoria: Rain event - 16th-20th Dec 2011

[Supercellimpact]

Look like a stock standard rain event now with widespread falls of 20mm or less but as usually locations under storms will get more like 30mm - 40mm. For Here bom has between 5-15mm so downgrade and as previously said models have lost interest. Maybe they will bounce back, who knows, but with our luck with the last 2 systems I going to go for 7mm.

[Rhino]

Certainly not going to be unhappy if we miss the really big falls although I think most models are struggling with it at the moment, GFS having numerous falls of 100mm+around SA VIC TAS and massive falls over NW NSW so I'd imagine the models hav'nt bullseyed a certain area just yet but that will come. You can't have numerous 100mm+ falls surrounding VIC and say we're not in with a big chance of getting 50-75mm+ IMO whether it's storms/rain or both. But really hating the possibility of getting big falls and don't want them personally.

Rhino.

[adon]

Well lucky we went hard for harvest and got finished yesterday as really in crop conditions are showing anything over a few mm in the southern mallee would sprout grain as there is already the odd one coming through. As far as most are concerned in the mallee now it can do what it likes by the weekend as we are 90% finished around here so seems the summer is a good time to build up soil moisture for the next years crop. I also bought sheep so having critters to mow the feed down and make money from them is good!

Still think that this is changing to a fro a bit so anything is welcome and will be a good way to water in my favorite pub re-opening in town and I now officially live within stumbling distance!!!!!

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest EC looks pretty good. About 45mm for Rowville in latest run. Sorry that was this morning. Interesting divergence from other areas though?

[johnno]

As I speak I think this looks like a stock standard December event nothing extraordinary about it apart from the fact we may see bit more moisture than normal with it due to a moderate La Nina but the dynamics off it doesn't look anything extraordinary at this moment

[HarleyB]

At this stage, I am feeling very, very unenthusiastic about this system. Only looks to be 5-25mm throughout the state, as Johnno said, the dynamics don't feel quite right for this one. Also all the models have jumped off this one, aside from GFS.

For my area, it looks like 10-15mm at this stage. Similar totals look to be in order for Melbourne.

I will make a definitive prediction Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

[sparra]

Well lucky we went hard for harvest and got finished yesterday as really in crop conditions are showing anything over a few mm in the southern mallee would sprout grain as there is already the odd one coming through. As far as most are concerned in the mallee now it can do what it likes by the weekend as we are 90% finished around here so seems the summer is a good time to build up soil moisture for the next years crop. I also bought sheep so having critters to mow the feed down and make money from them is good!

Still think that this is changing to a fro a bit so anything is welcome and will be a good way to water in my favorite pub re-opening in town and I now officially live within stumbling distance!!!!!

Well try spare a thought for those of us a little further south whose harvest starts a little later mate....
We haven't had more than 10 points on our ripe crops so they are all still looking fine and could cope with a normal December rain event....always expect an inch over December anyway..;....so hope you are right johnno

[Rhino]

Still thinking GFS is more right than wrong atm and models are all over the shop but this could go either way as it stands and hoping it goes the way of less rainfall honestly and not writing it off yet by any means. BOM town forecasts don't read right either. Renmark and Keith/Mt Gambier all going for rain at times sat and sun morning but only showers for Mildura and Nhill on those days, even though EC giving Midura 36mm sat/sun, so uncertainty reigns supreme I'd say. EC still pumping out solid falls and with the convective nature of the system could quite easily add another half onto those figures again, EC giving me around 30mm so could easily be 45mm IMO.

Rhino.

[Supercellimpact]

EC has about 35mm for here, so if you add in some convective rainfall/storms we could be looking at 50mm.

[nafets]

Where did that rain come from last night? Woke me up as it was quite squally. We ended up with here a nice 4.5mm!

[Supercellimpact]

GFS wants to give 50-75mm for my area.

[Meso]

But no storms!

[Supercellimpact]

But no storms!

Embedded storms maybe, and storms should be firing up on the ranges on Friday like the previous system.

[Meso]

That sounds about as exciting as a kick in the nuts.

[Rhino]

Well OCF forecasting around 30mm here and I know that we won't be getting that from the "shower or two" forecast by the BOM so will see which way BOM go with this as the week evolves. GFS still forecasting pockets of 50-100mm around the state with most areas forecast to get at least 25mm at the moment.

Rhino.

[dry]

That sounds about as exciting as a kick in the nuts.

A kick in the nuts could be exciting for the person doing the kicking! Seriously, I could think of far less exciting weather forecasts. Western suburbs got a mention in BOMs Sunday forecast - never seen that before.

[Meso]

That sounds about as exciting as a kick in the nuts.

A kick in the nuts could be exciting for the person doing the kicking! Seriously, I could think of far less exciting weather forecasts. Western suburbs got a mention in BOMs Sunday forecast - never seen that before.

Meh, we've had enough embedded storms and rainy weekends the last few months. I'm hanging out for old school clear air type stuff, even though I know current patterns aren't that conjusive to it, it would be nice.

GFS is back on board in the latest run with a bit of instability anyway. This thing could go either way at this stage and won't become very clear until late week.

[johnno]

Latest 00z UKMET has the low further North than EC and GFS and tracks the low towards Victoria slowly between Saturday and Monday.. UK has generally held the low further North bit similar to ACCESS

UK for Saturday morning 11am.... http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UK for Sunday morning 11am..... http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UK for Monday morning 11am.... http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AUS_Twisted]

Meh, we've had enough embedded storms and rainy weekends the last few months. I'm hanging out for old school clear air type stuff, even though I know current patterns aren't that conjusive to it, it would be nice.

GFS is back on board in the latest run with a bit of instability anyway. This thing could go either way at this stage and won't become very clear until late week.

Yeah unfortunately we rarely get any clear air stuff down here, I've been down the bay so so many times for lightning but often is the case there is low junk in the way like there was early Sunday morning.

[Duckey]

Yep unfortunately just can't get excited about this one, certainly won't get the ripper lightning active storms we had this weekend just past. Model have seriously downgraded in the past 48hrs and at this stage is just looking like a showery weekend, nothing to get excited about. However am VERY happy to be proved wrong!