Victoria: Troughy Period - 13th-16th November 2011

[droughtbreaker]

The first decent cell on radar has developed near Heathcote and attempting to extend along a line to Echuca. Interesting given that much of the discussion has been focused on the SW and far west of the state due to apparent higher moisture levels there. IMO moisture levels are fine in central and eastern areas and if anything even a touch higher than in the far west and SW. It's even looking fairly unstable here with a bit of mammatus and some lower level convective cloud developing under a deck of altostratus.

DPs around the Mallee atm are between 2C and 7C so I would think that moisture might be a limiting factor there if anywhere. Higher temps in that region could spark of some high level, low precipitation storms. I reckon there should be some decent showers with the odd storm around central areas this evening and we may see scattered 5-10mm falls.

[Didjman]

the Heathcote cell is sparking on the radio. Have camera rdy - should go over just north of here.
Peter

[Jake Smethurst]

Latest visual showing some nice clearance in the western districts currently which should allow for surface temps to crank up. Some nice convection already in the northwest and developing over eastern and southeast South Australia. Also on the eastern ranges thanks to convergence and high moisture.

[johnno]

Little cells also developing over the outer N suburbs of Melbourne.. If only this high and middle level junk would rack off. The instability is there most areas of the state at the moment.

[heatherjoan]

Looks like something firing up near Buchan in the East

[Didjman]

firing up to my nth. cell gone up ne of Avenel. the line is slowly building sth toward me. Radio static increasing. Also stuff seems to be building sth of Heathcote.
Peter

[occluded]

Well blow me down if it didn't just drop down here for a good five minutes. Two cracks of thunder and the boy and I took shelter in the cubby house.

Not bad for an event where I was expecting 2/5's of sod all

A handy 3mm out of that lot.

[Duckey]

Thunder here in Croydon North and spitting - unexpected!!

[TheFishmanAU]

Just had a couple stray bits of thunder. That was a bonus.

[Jake Smethurst]

Conditions a fair bit more unstable than previously thought. Latest thunderstorm chart and discussion here: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... mchart.htm. I have changed a few things around thanks to the latest data showing some differences.

25/15 here.

[crikey]

In Maldon at the moment and have had flat untextured cloud ( although quite high up)usually associated with rain for the past few hours. Showers on and off and probably had a couple of mm.
Just looking at Horsham obs. It has not got past 23 deg c there as yet ( and the forecast was 29 deg c)and a N/west wind change brought them gusts up to 59km/hr for a while and has since settled. The Rh and dew point has been going up and down all day in Horsham in relation to direction of wind. To our west according to radar wind obs.there is a predominant warmer n/west flow coming into the state from the n/west. There appears to be a lot of air mixing here at maldon. One minute it is warm and feels humid then a bit of s/westerly and feels cool. I was wondering if the change has come early but l don't think so as the deepest part of the trough is still in SA at Adelaide longitude at 1005 hpascals a little deeper than the forecast synoptic suggested. The deepest part of trough may not arrive until later tonight? Not a lot of cloud in that vicinity at the moment as you might expect at the deepest part of trough? . And is a dry 21% on the trough line in Adelaide atm. Seems like this is a pre -trough band of moisture?? In theory the best part is yet to come but would be happier with more evidence of cloud on the national loop along the trough? Is this current activity a little mid-level /upper atmosphere action?
Such a large variety of dew points and RH values across the state even within forecast districts. East and west gippsland looks great with some high dew points
Just have a look at the range of RH and dp within a district. Pockets of dry and moist air across the board.
Example Bendigo 43%RH and mangalore 71%
In Horsham the RH has increased by 20% but then dropped equally as quick 20%
By the way , many thanks for your kind comments .. I had enforced rest yesterday 'arvo' and got bored and decided to play with paint software.. Just get worried when l start posting my doodling artwork. LOL. Weather watching is more interesting

[Twister]

Nice cell went up under the high cloud crap, got a few deep rumbles and the rain shafts looked good but slid just to my north so sad times.

Going up a bit out east but not much here should see shower or storm late evening though

[johnno]

Gippsland doing well with quite a few decent storms about

[Jake Smethurst]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the North Central and parts of the Central, Mallee, Northern Country, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 3:29 pm Sunday, 13 November 2011.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Shepparton, Seymour, Mildura, Ouyen, Rainbow and Walpeup.
Very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hail are also possible with thunderstorms in the Northern Country, North Central, North East, parts of the Central and West and South Gippsland districts.

[crikey]

The trough has dipped to 1003hpascals in Whyalla ( 5 points lower than forecast)and fields of cumulus developing in the clearer air that storm chasers love.l believe.. Wonder how that will translate into Vic as air mass travails eastish? THe trough position hasn't really budged it has deepened a little?.
1005hpascals in thes/west around Portland region
Here is the 1km sat pic link of cumulus developing in the deeper parts of trough
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.h ... &stop=#nav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and here is Flinders ranges web cams.. eastern SA ( hammond) showing a ground view of fields of cumulus.
http://www.wartli.drivehq.com/HWL3w.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
They look very young at this stage. Wonder how long they take to reach tower status or storm status ..if they are going to do that ?

[aussiestormfreak]

Still waiting for a thunderstorm here in the Belgrave area, radar only showing a bit of annoying light rain here atm... hoping some convective action might eventuate as the second trough approaches from the west, even if all we get is just an after-dark lightning display like last Tuesday's

[crikey]

Another severe weather warning weather warning update released 5pm
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV65756.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the East Gippsland and parts of the Mallee, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 5:01 pm Sunday, 13 November 2011.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Wangaratta, Sale, Bairnsdale, Maffra, Orbost and Falls Creek.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in the Central, Northern Country and North Central districts and the warning for these districts is CANCELLED.

Very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are also possible with thunderstorms in the East Gippsland district and parts of the North East and South and West Gippsland districts.

[Supercellimpact]

That long thin rainband in central Vic has gotten heavyier as it's gone along and it had a yellow blob for 2 frames.

[Supercellimpact]

Lighting Seen north of bendigo !! Also storms developing in nw Vic and western Vic. Can see convection to the north.

[crikey]

Is that a line of storms developing from Birchip to Bendigo.? New strikes on the tracker. Have heard some thunder here in Maldon.
Will be interesting when the trough comes through tonight. A nice line of cumulus on that trough line to our west approaching border with the wind change
snapped this at 7.30pm
http://api.ning.com/files/jY33n3rESQK2v ... tralia.JPG" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;