Finally getting around to looking at the current setup properly, I had my English exam today, I feel very confident with it, one down, four to go!
So on to the forecast analysis. As many of you have already discussed, the upcoming period is looking quite unstable but it is looking quite dynamic as well for next week. We will extend the dates of this thread to fit in next week, as there will be two troughs affecting Victoria quite close together.
Firstly, this Saturday. We will be in a warm to hot northerly airstream thanks to a high pressure system over the Tasman Sea, so things are expected to be generally sunny with temperatures generally at around 30 degrees onwards. There may be some small scale Cu develop in the far west of the state later in the day, as there does appear to be some instability around that region, however conditions are too dry for the formation of any thunderstorm activity plus the trigger is too far away and we would be relying on just surface heating, so as I said, not likely,
Sunday becomes quite interesting with a trough of low pressure likely to enter the west of the state during the late morning, through central parts during the mid-afternoon, and into eastern parts generally at night. Now the timing of the trough has been changing a fair bit with each model run, so it still could change, but that's what i expect for now. Nevertheless, conditions are likely to be warm to hot ahead of the wind change, which is most likely going to be fairly shallow, with winds tending more westerly with the change, then southwesterly later on, introducing milder air. Now the conditions in regards to thunderstorm activity on Sunday are looking more traditional to a frontal system, with most variables checking out quite well, and I will look at these again when we get a bit closer. Moisture seems to be the limiting factor initially though, so we could see dry cell cores to start with, with the development in the west, but as things progress eastwards, precipitation cored cells will be a focus.
Activity contracting eastward on Monday with the trough, so eastern districts likely to be favorable for any shower/storm activity. Elsewhere is likely to be generally fine with a more moist warm day returning.
Dynamic weather situation on Tuesday and Wednesday with low confidence in models. Looks at this stage, though will likely change, that a trough will enter the far west late Tuesday causing storms mostly in the western districts. So something to watch for the.
I will be updating the thunderstorm charts from tomorrow night.
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Hopefully something about on Sunday to scratch my itch!
