VIC - trough/cold front, then cold pool - 30/4 - 4/5 2011

[Didjman]

From 35 years of watching synoptic charts, and later on - satpics - any fronts travelling east across the Bight die before getting here. The fronts to watch are those that uncurl like an unwinding spring, and shoot up the west coast of Tassie! I also closely watch models etc, but for winter wx and the REAL cold pools, I have found the above to be the golden rule for Vic.
My 2 cents worth.
Peter

[stevco123]

Agreed Peter. It always gets to me when people say that its going to rain in a few days coz perth got a cold front yesterday for example. Our most intense cold fronts come from the south.

[Petros]

Latest satpic shows how near we are to a major system, great NW cloudband over us, cold pool to our SW. Unfortunately the pool hasnt much northward impetus. Stll the models did a good job sniffing this out a week ago eh?

[johnno]

As I said Yesterday the BOM forecast is to rich and stick to it and going by the radar it looks to be on track that we will see very little out of this

[I_Love_Storms]

Probably don't need too much rain anyway. Looks pretty crap on radar but slow moving which is an advantage. Do expect the intensity to pick up a little as it crosses over the bay, with maybe a few speckled patches of darker blue - LOL. Pretty nice day outside though, airmass feels a little more moist today than the other days where the high totally dominated proceedings.

[droughtbreaker]

I'm a bit perplexed with the BOM on this one. The guy at the BOM this morning on ABC (not going to name names) was adamant that the rain was coming for Melbourne by midday (this was at 11am) and it was a big solid band 'stretching back to Mildura'. Most of us on this forum have become well aware of how these rain bands associated with very weak systems can often break apart before getting to central areas. Why the BOM couldn't see this I have no idea.

Anyway, I still reckon there will be 1-5mm across southern parts of the state tonight with the highest falls on the ranges. The models always had the rain this evening or overnight, there was never any interest in rainfall for central areas during the day.

[stevco123]

Looks to be slowly re building again on radar.

[johnno]

Terrible forecasting by the BOM in its lastest forecasts at 420pm IMO

[Didjman]

My lower back has been suddenly quite stiff since mid morning! Season change very close!
Peter

[Petros]

Baro back to 1018 hPa and we had a calm fine arvo (21C) after a cool heavily overcast morning that seemed to promise earlier-than-progged rain. Another great arvo for a hit of golf.

AccessR/G dont want a bar of it (Johnno I dont understand what you meant with your reference to BOM in previous post?), but CMC is keen on helping us out re the current dryness out this way.....

[droughtbreaker]

I think what John is referring to is the 'areas of rain/rain at times' forecast for Melbourne when really it should be just 'patchy rain', or 'a little rain'. The former implies widespread falls and decent amounts whereas the latter more accurately describes the situation for tonight and tomorrow.

Seriously, some of the forecasting we get from the BOM these days is just diabolical. They are pretty good most of the time but are often severely challenged by relatively simple scenarios.

There is the chance of some more substantial rain over parts of Gippsland overnight and tomorrow as winds swing SE'ly from northerly. There is also the chance of some substantial showery or drizzly weather over west central parts tomorrow, but no widespread rainfall.

[tizza]

It is absolutely chucking it down here!!!!!!!!!

[tizza]

5mm in 5 minutes and still belting, all the gutters around the house are overflowing

[Petros]

Unexpected bonus Tizza!, hope some of it makes it way over here before dawn. Calm and very mild out here atm.

[stevco123]

Just confirming tizzas report, I have had a couple of heavy downpours with gutters overflowing. 8.2 mm so far tonight, so definitely rain at times for us here around this area. And looks like it is back building too.love it when that happens.

501 mm for the year. Well over half way for the average.

[tizza]

6.5mm now, it stopped dead in its tracks. That was a very heavy shower, very tropical in nature too

[stevco123]

Another band coming through soon for my area by the looks of things on the radar. The last band was underestimated by the radar, and I suspect it could well be one of those nights with intermittent heavy showers. Just have to wait and see.

[occluded]

The lightest of light light rain this afternoon, not enough to bother the kids on the trampoline outside.

Gently raining now, enough to wet the ground but little more.

[Dc449]

Absolutely poured a few hours ago for a little while, was good to get some water on the ground.

[Gordon]

Although we had a few drops from midday onward, significant rain only started here around 5 pm; crept up to 8 mm at last count. I agree the radar is underestimating this one, a function of fine droplets but very dense?