Vic - More rain likely March 7th - 10th

[Petros]

A quick scan of the (non) censensus of the models seems to me that Twister is right, chance of decent rain again midweek for Vic's NW and N central areas. What an amazing sequence for these aforementioned areas for near 6 months now!

Gippsland will have to dig deep to conjure up 5mm from this change, but I still feel sure that an event will put us on the map this month, possibly April. There just hasnt been any cut-off lows! - not whingeing, all green (now drying) with heaps of water in Lake Glenmaggie for our farms.

[Karl Lijnders]

The rain looks to be substantial enough in the west to renew some riverine flooding mainly in the west. But only minor flooding likely.

I must say Melbourne looks to be getting average rainfall for the month already taken care of by the end of the week so that is good news.

UHI (Urban Heat Island) in effect now tonight, currently 22C in Melbourne and 15C out in the outer suburbs!!

[stratospear]

Some divergence in forecasts atm for this week. GFS and BOM are suggesting 25mm for here, but EC is the big outlier with 75mm!

It's not really that humid right now.

[Supercellimpact]

Tommorow you will feel the humidity as the trough gets to western Vic. Yeah surprised at EC, but it could be on to something, you never know.

[johnno]

A quick scan of the (non) censensus of the models seems to me that Twister is right, chance of decent rain again midweek for Vic's NW and N central areas. What an amazing sequence for these aforementioned areas for near 6 months now!

Gippsland will have to dig deep to conjure up 5mm from this change, but I still feel sure that an event will put us on the map this month, possibly April. There just hasnt been any cut-off lows! - not whingeing, all green (now drying) with heaps of water in Lake Glenmaggie for our farms.

I disagree I would say at least 15mm for you Petros could be as high as 30mm

[johnno]

Latest UK starting to come more inline with EC

[Karl Lijnders]

Anticipating around 30-50mm widespread throughout Western and Central areas for this one.

Weekend also shaping up as being unsettled IMO with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on probably Sat/Sun/Mon

[WaterBaby]

BOM's just come out with this.... makes me very nervous.

IDV35800

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Victoria

Note: This Flood Watch is a heads-up for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning (see note below)

Flood Watch for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins

Issued at 4:24 pm EDT on Monday 7 March 2011

A low pressure trough will reach western Victoria late Tuesday, and will drift slowly eastwards across the State during Wednesday and Thursday.

Areas of rain with local heavy falls and isolated thunderstorms have been forecast for the North West starting from Tuesday afternoon. The heavy rain and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through to Thursday morning. Widespread rainfall totals of up to 70mm with possible higher isolated totals have been forecast for the North West.

The forecast rainfall is expected to cause some stream rises in the North West catchments with the possibility of minor flooding developing over the next several days.

The Bureau is monitoring the situation and will issue catchment specific warnings if and when required.

In the interests of community safety the SES suggests following precautions:

Don't walk, ride or drive through floodwater,
Don't allow children to play in floodwater,
Stay away from waterways and stormwater drains, and
Keep well clear of fallen power lines
Current Emergency Information is available at http://www.ses.vic.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

Current Road and Traffic Information is available at the VicRoads website: http://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/trafficalerts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Weather Forecast:

For the latest weather forecast see http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Next Issue:

The next Flood Watch will be issued around noon Tuesday 8 March 2011.

Flood Warnings, Flood Watches, River Height and Rainfall information are available on the Bureau of Meteorology web site at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Flood Warnings and Flood Watches for Victorian Catchments are available on: Telephone Weather Service No. 1300 659217.

[Meso]

It's only a minor flood warning, I reckon they are overplaying the thunderstorm potential too. But then again it seems they class any "heavy shower" as a storm lol. I really dunno what to expect over the next few days in terms of mm. Doesn't seem as clear cut as a lot of the other systems we've had. That being said, I will have a ping at between 20-40mm here between tomorrow and Thursday.

More interested about the long wknd showing some early potential for storms. Not gonna get too excited yet tho, but a long wknd of chasing would be a great way to finish the season!

[WaterBaby]

I know it won't be anything like Jan, but they only gave us a minor flood warning then too. LOL.
20mms will flood me out of my home again for a week. Better start packing.

[adon]

Well if we got 70mm out of this at home we would have significant areas of surface water again and this would most likley stay around for months. It has been trying to soak away since the big rain and there is still many areas where roads are under water and paddocks are still lakes. 50mm was about the upper limit for us I reckon so will be hopeing they are overcooking it!

[johnno]

Yeah 40-50mm I think at this stage your area Anthony but lets hope I have overcooked it too!

[Petros]

Models still all over the place but some consensus shows the Wimmera to be the focus again as previously posted.

Here in Gippsland we have 20 - 23mm predicted from AccessR/EC, AccessG at 16mm and a miserly < 5mm from GFS/CMC, and more promisingly, Johnno at 15-30 mm!

[Meso]

20mms will flood me out of my home again for a week. Better start packing.

WB, doesn't seem right that you need to move out of home every time more than just 20mm of rain is expected. Do you have a heap of water still lying around or something?

[WaterBaby]

Meso we do have lots of water lying around still... some from September. LOL
But we have a shallow creek that runs across the 3 roads out of here, and if they start taking on water then we are isolated for a good 4 days at the least. With 2 very young toddlers, I'm not willing to be isolated, most likely without power and struggling to get medical assistance should we require it (touch wood we never do), so I get out before we get flooded in.
We move house in about 6-7 weeks, so I was kinda hoping we'd stay dry until then where we won't have anywhere NEAR as much of a problem.

It is a little exciting though after seeing everything so dry for so long! I LOVE watching what the power of water does to everything ( but I can say that because I don't rely on farming for an income).

[stratospear]

EC has moderated a little forecasting 56mm for here. GFS has a high variation in totals across the state which I'm not really buying.

[Karl Lijnders]

System still looks on track.

Cloudy weather will spread eastwards across the state, but remaining dry in the east tomorrow. Light rain in the SW with some local thunder will extend to C areas by lunch time tomorrow before turning to rain areas and thunderstorms throughout.

Anticipating around 30-50mm across most of western and central VIC. Scattered falls of 50-100mm along the divide and west.

Not too good for the east initially but as we go into an Ely flow across the weekend, it could provide the east more showery weather!!

[Twister]

It doesn't look that great atm but it will dump some impressive falls over the next few days.
Already 20mm+ falls in SA still ages to go over there and here

But just looking at it today it dont look that great at all, the key to this is the very slow movement and the very moist air been advected down

Should be a wet few days from late tomorrow

Man wasnt today magic hit up the beach in the late arvo was so good

[Karl Lijnders]

Rainfall is a bi patchy across the state presently as the trigger/trough sits back in SA. The moisture feed is increasing from the NW and this will see lower based clouds form and heavier rain across the state in about 6-12hrs time. Will be some better accummulations come this time tomorrow.

It is a slow cooker system, so it won't be a rapid increase in rainfall and colour on the radar.

Watch the weekend for stormy potential!!

[Jake Smethurst]

A little bit of a downgrade in some of the models this morning, however still a reasonable event in regards to what we would have seen over previous years. Expecting 15-25mm for my area here in the Southwest.

Some light rain areas moving through the north now, expect this to gradually increase and become more heavier this afternoon from the west. There is also the potential for isolated thunderstorm activity in the west, particularly southwest this afternoon.