Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Petros]

That's not all that rare a warning. I have seen it pop up several times in the past few years and before then as well. We don't seem to get downy mildew warnings any more which used to be very common, brown rot seems to have replaced it.

Anyway, everything will rot after this week. I'm expecting cool climate gardens to suffer severely. Roses will be decimated along with any plant in the rose family, including stone fruit trees and apples/pears.

... and tomatoes (going by my should-be-ripe-by-now green offerings).

[Blackee]

That's not all that rare a warning.

No you are right Andrew. I plead guilty!
I will only use the word rare when a Road Weather Alert is issued!

[Harley92]

I'm thinking about heading out for a chase on Wednesday.

Shoot me a message if you are interested in tagging along.

Wow! This event shaping up to be huge. I am anticipating around 150 mm for my neck of the woods.

In terms of coming along for a chase, yes I may be in schitzengiggles..

I will let you know by Mon-Tues. I will message you.

[Rhino]

By the end of this week we may need a Jock Itch Alert issued.

Rhino.

[I_Love_Storms]

Wes that SWW shows things are changing dramatically by the hour with this system. Very big and complex system. Guess we just sit back and enjoy and let the weather do its thing, but this system is getting bigger and the models are upgrading every run.

[Supercellimpact]

I think by Saturday there will be floods, something big is coming which is obivious, GFS is not to be laughed at it may be right after all, it's had these runs for about 3 days a that's rare. Anyway I reckon 125mm for here.

[chillout]

seen this before time and again, gfs on steroids. go for a fifth of the progs and still be lucky to get that. I'll go for 50mm for the week, melb inner north suburbs.

[Lily]

LOL Rhino

Petros, you must know me well enough by now to know that in my opinion you can never have too many smilies

Flood Relief Appeal has just reached over $9M

[droughtbreaker]

Looking back through the records, February 1973 would have to be one of the biggest summer rain events which might serve as a benchmark for this upcoming event.

Between the 5th and 6th of February 1973 there were widespread 150-200mm falls between Ballarat and Geelong and widespread 100-200mm falls throughout other central areas. Some places on the eastern highlands and alps had 150-200mm falls on just one day and 250-500mm falls for the month were widespread through the NE ranges.

Having found that I am now confident that places around Melbourne can see 200mm+ over 5 or 6 days.

EDIT: Found another one, 28th and 29th January 1963. 100-150mm falls widespread through central with many Melbourne suburbs achieving it in just one day.

[I_Love_Storms]

seen this before time and again, gfs on steroids. go for a fifth of the progs and still be lucky to get that. I'll go for 50mm for the week, melb inner north suburbs.

I think normally that would be the norm, but IMHO 50mm may fall in the space of a couple of hours at some stage in the next few days. Models still have time to downgrade but the event is just on our doorstep now and all the ingredients are here for a truly enormous event.

I expect around 100-200mm here for the week.

[Blackee]

GFS has had a very good few weeks in regards to projecting heavy falls for QLD.
They do forecast convective/tropical systems well.
Please don't discount anything at this stage. Alert but not alarmed.
Whilst we sit in awe of the pretty colours that GFS has consistently thrown at us this weekend, it wont be "pretty" and "exciting" if it comes off!

[Rhino]

Even EC has around 170mm for Ballarat for the week and if that model does'nt do very well in convective setups well 200mm might be more on the cards. As I said before these totals seem unbelieveable but we're not in normal times either at the moment, this might be a type of system that 4 years ago we would get 70-80mm of rain. Well times that by at least 2 and you might be close to what we might get this coming week due to the strong La Nina and other factors that AV has pointed out.
Yeah Wes GFS can get a bad wrap at times, as with all models, but it does well generally in these setups. Will wait till the mornings run to gather more info.

Rhino.

[stratospear]

Albury has really copped it this evening: 32mm since 5pm. I note also a dew point hovering around 21 degC... Watch out for some heavy downpours in the early morning for Central Vic.

[Blackee]

Nice little storm just thru Ballarat, with convective showers west of CBD.

[nafets]

WOW! I have never seen the GFS go in for that much rain in Victoria, its crazy!! Heading up to Yarrawonga for a few nights on thursday, hows the weather outlook going for up there? Will the rain be spread out over the corse of the week here or will there be a main day with a burst of rain?

Thanks, Stefan

[Supercellimpact]

I think I'll wake up to steady rain on the roof or a rumble in the night.

EDIT: Totals in the north east are already going up with multiple places above 20mm.

[eegs]

Might have to save a few pennies for next weeks flood relief. Might be a few folks in Swan Hill and Mildura that are remembering the 1956 big event (bidgee and Murray already chokers) and may need some help.

[johnno]

I'm preety sure EC/Norwedigan site didn't have that much for Albury Tonight may of only been few mm's

[schitzengiggles]

I'm getting a laugh out of the GFS bashing. It's pretty funny..
It's been frighteningly accurate this season, so far.

The tendency has been to go early, and refine until 48 hours out, then wobble like a kid without training wheels for the first time, before recovering and being bang on again in the morning.

[Harley92]

Down at a beach house in Portsea, small cell near by with 7 cc's reported so far..not bad I'll say.