Victoria: Cold fronts & cut-off low - 17-20th Dec (Obs)

[Karl Lijnders]

I think the rain will total towards 30mm by this time tomorrow. Will see the heavier rain move in tomorrow more than tonight.

Not quite missing me Michelle. Huge shower roaring through just to my west.

[I_Love_Storms]

The warm bay is going to really liven things up over the coming hours. This is going to be fun

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Hilly mentioned 30 to 50
sitting 36.5mm and still coming down.
117mm MTD.
making me sleepy this rain. or is it this flu that has hung around for 6 weeks.
totals by the morning will be interesting.

[droughtbreaker]

BTW I for one never wish for summer weather... it almost always comes and often with a bang. I recall December 2008 was a shocker - cold wet and windy and 6 weeks later... Sure that was a freak year but it does show how fast things can change.

The odd thing about that summer is if you took away the freak heatwave we had in January and then the Black Saturday all time record breaker it remained unexceptional for temperatures right through to the end. Those two heat events were pretty much all there was of much note for that summer.

The difference this year lies in central Australia and the fact that the heat buildup is much less extensive and less intense also. It is getting periodically flushed out by cooler air and dissipated by cloud and rain through inland AUS before it rebuilds. In 2008/2009 and last year, the heat bank was there through central AUS the whole time and never eased back, it was super intense as well and basically record breaking. Anyone could see that as soon as there was a decent period of NW winds we would be blasted by record heat. This year (so far) we are not even getting hot in deep and strong NW air streams ahead of strong fronts.

Anyway, back to this system. We are getting a few brief showers back but the main feature is still the cloud, gloom and cold as well as high moisture in the atmosphere creating a cold and dank English summer feel to things. To tell you the truth it is really depressing for this time of year and I could do with a week of drier, hotter and sunnier weather.

[Ausmammal]

Thanks Shelly.

12.95mm since midnight.
30.48mm since Friday 1pmish.
I've had 3.56 mm in the past hour and still raining heavily.

[Rhino]

Around 4mm today here, probably 5 heavy showers all day and a bit of hail early arvo. More annoyance rain here but nice to get the ground wet again and dampen the topsoil. Looks like a damp period coming to central parts and Gippsland before a great leadup to xmas temp wise.

Rhino.

[Petros]

Radar shows showers near King Isl starting to tend a northerly direction. Here starts the wrap-around.

12.5mm for this thread so far, fully overcast with a lull in the recent light rain - no complaints - enough to keep us green into Christmas.

Still dead calm,...... this time last night I thought we'd be experiencing 25+ Knt SW'lies. I've got a lot to learn.

[edit] - dead calm here, our local BOM forecast was for up to 15kT SW'lies by now. I reckon the low is going to bomb a little higher in latitude than the models progged. 4.5mm in gauge atm(12.5mm for this thread), lite drizzle in calm conditions, baro has woken up to bounce to 993 from its 992 hPa that it was stuck at all day.

[chillout]

best showers from the sth west for a long time here. Heavy & long lasting. A tick over 9mm for the day and looking likely for more.

[Flangfest]

Absolutely belting down here for the last 10 minutes. Keep it coming!! And no Karl I am not going outside to check the gauge.

Edit -easing now..

[Karl Lijnders]

I can see it from here!! Nice to hear.

Looks like my turn here is starting soon.

[Petros]

This rain is going to produce fantastic back yard conditions for the Christmas day parties around Melb going by the above couple of posts......... esp after a day or two at 24C and sunshine. No rain and calm here atm. Cant believe this thread isnt full of wind reports - thats the way I expected it to unfold by the model progs at least!!!!!!!!!!

Can someone else also run the 24 Hr IR satloop....... am I wrong in thinking the centre of the low will be near Melb in an hour or so? Its supposed to be over N Tassie to move into Bass Straight before dipping to the SE during tomorrow morning. Not saying the models are wrong, just going by the IR evidence.

[I_Love_Storms]

This is latest synoptic at 9pm.

[tizza]

The rain has been torrential here for almost 30mins now. There's going to be flash flooding for sure. Are there any flash flood warning up yet? They need to issue one for the inner east immediately. The radar is not reflecting how heavy this is.

[I_Love_Storms]

The rain has been torrential here for almost 30mins now. There's going to be flash flooding for sure. Are there any flash flood warning up yet? They need to issue one for the inner east immediately. The radar is not reflecting how heavy this is.

I think it is now I think the bureau have been very average today. Obviously a severe cell hit Mt Evelyn earlier and caused flash flooding and at least one massive gum tree to fall over a road, however there was no warning whatsoever.

Edit: I think there may be a surface low around the vicinity of the CBD. Interestingly we had Northerlies here before and now Scoresby showing up as easterlies? Can anyone confirm? Heavy rain on and off here the last 10 mins.

[Lily]

Is it raining? Not a drop falling here

[tizza]

Is it raining? Not a drop falling here

LOL, I'm under a bay stream, it's backed off a little for now but it's reorganising itself again.

Oh and it's slowly sliding your way

[Anthony Violi]

Sitting on 999.7 YTD, just about to crack the magical 1000 YTD!!

Had 15.8mm today, and plenty more coming up, very convective set up and just saw lightning to the SW. Could see another 20mm overnight easily out here.

[I_Love_Storms]

WOW the radar has gone beserk!

[David]

Briefly black on radar of Moorabbin AP, haven't heard any rumbles here since the storm about 1PM.

Edit: LOL just heard a deep rumble then

[phunkster]

I'm about 2km E of Moorabbin AP, became quite torrential and have had a couple of rumbles in the last 10 minutes, fantastic weather!