Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[ShaneEEEE]

I am looking at the instability forecasts for tomorrow and I can't ignore the fact that there is instability progged for NW Vic. In order for it to do anything though we need heat and moisture, so I am going to drive up past Bendigo tomorrow and hope something comes up. Bottom line is, if I don't go out and something happens I will kick myself...so a day out of the house isn't such a bad idea anyway!

Saturday might be a flood chase lol

[Harley34]

Latest Stormcast run indicates a cape of 1600 just near Aubury/Wodonga, along with a Lifted Index of -4 for Saturday afternoon. At the moment, the best chasing area would be NE VIC without a doubt, however most of VIC should see isolated activity. To be honest, i'm not fussed if storm development flops, as we are only nearing November, and that my area and other surrounding areas should receive at least a total close to 50mm+ for the event. Feeling rather mild outside, clear skies. Looking forward to tomorrow's temperature in the high 20's, although with cloud developing (slight possibility of convective cloud with the nearing of the trough), i doubt Melbourne will see anything past 28-29 tops.

[ShaneEEEE]

Yeah, the only real chance of isolated storms for this event is tomorrow. There will probably be storms embedded in the rain on saturday, but for isolated storms tomorrow is the day.

At the moment my Target is NW of Bendigo, probably around Wycheproof (never been there so I can tick that off my list). I will of course check the runs in the morning and re-asses from there, and check cloud cover etc.

[Blackee]

This is more like it!!

[Blackee]

Majority of the state now influenced by a NE wind. DP's remaining around the 8-11c mark.
Still not sure about cracking the 30c mark (for metro areas.) If it were to happen, it will be lateish (around 1700hrs).

[Anthony Violi]

Yep GFS has finally come around, much better set up and expect some very god totals.. Will be one of these systems where If you don't get much 50kms up the road will be underwater..all up to luck now as to where the low develops..

[Blackee]

Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central, West and South Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts
Issued at 4:28 am EDT on Friday 29 October 2010.

Sheep Graziers are warned that cold temperatures, heavy rain and fresh southwesterly winds are expected over the weekend. Areas likely to be affected include all districts except for East Gippsland. There is a high risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EDT Friday.

[Meso]

Taking the camera and laptop to work just in case something pops up when i knock off.

[Karl Lijnders]

Yes things are now started to settle on the regions likely to be hardest hit and they include the W ranges, C ranges, Melbourne Metro Area, E ranges and NE districts. Elsewhere steady falls of up to 50mm are also likely.

Chance of thunderstorms about the state, particularly the NE and N Country this afternoon and slight chance of them along the initial bands of rain extending from the trough and cold front over SA presently. A partly cloudy start for the majority of the state, but ultimately sunnier as you go east. NNE winds will freshen and tend more N in the west during the morning. Cloud will thicken with a little rain developing over W districts this afternoon with the chance of a thunderstorm, meanwhile isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly over the E ranges with some risk extending back along the ranges towards Macedon later today dependent upon cloud and temp rise. Rain will increase tonight in W districts and the patchy rain will extend to Melbourne by midnight. Showers and storms over the NE will gradually ease and clear.

Saturday will see rain areas and isolated thunderstorms spread to affect all areas bar the far E of the state by the close of day. Local thunderstorms are possible in the far east in clearer skies. Rain areas over W and C areas will become locally heavy with the trough and cold front amplifying and turning into a low pressure system over N Central VIC. Local flooding is possible by Saturday night over parts of W and C VIC particularly the ranges. Rain will tend to showers and isolated storms over the NW later in the evening and showers and storms in the far east will tend to areas of rain. Warm in the east, colder in the west and central areas by close of day as winds shift onshore SW/S.

Sunday the heavy areas of rain and local flooding will be located over southern and eastern VIC as a full wrap around band of rain continues to move clockwise around a low situated somewhere off the C coastline. As the low moves further away from the VIC coast, the rain intensity will ease and break to showers by the end of the day. Showers over N districts will continue also with the risk of afternoon thunderstorms in the N and W during the afternoon. Colder in the west again with strong SSW winds extending to the far east later. Snowfalls will develop on the Alpine range overnight.

Monday 'showers over southern and mountain areas will increase to areas of rain during the late afternoon and evening as a short wave of cold air is pushed over the state by onshore SW winds. Isolated showers over N VIC will become scattered later with the risk of afternoon hail and thunder with snowfalls lowering to 1300m by the close of day. Strong and gusty WNW winds will shift SW later and become general.

Tuesday, areas of rain in S Gippsland and E Central areas will gradually tend to showers with moderate falls. Showers over the northern plains will become more isolated from the NW during the morning and generally clear. Scattered showers in the remainder of the south will continue with local hail and thunder contracting to Gippsland by afternoon. Snowfalls to 1100m will return to the Alpine peaks during the afternoon and become more isolated. Cold throughout.
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Next comprehensive update at 9am with running updates every 3hrs. Hopefully these will become much more accurate as we get a better handle on low pressure movement and model prognosis.

Antipating around 50-80mm here now under the US scenario but still got some work to do to convince me of 100mm falls in Melbourne. It all comes down to position. 50mm widespread will alone cause issues for our catchments here in metro Melbourne. The Yarra is of a very big concern to me.

[Twister]

Yes what a system we have on our hands bring it on.

Looks like the Rain band will Stall in W Vic tonight then slowly move into Central areas and stall for longer in central areas on Saturday this stalling is the key to heavy falls were ever it stalls for the longest the heaviest rain will occur.

SW, Central, NE, NC, and right along the divide get ready for 50-100mm huge falls should occur in these regions as you will get the best of the rain band and the wrap around

17/7 with NE wind atm dont expect to see rain here for at least 12-15 hours

Rain band in SA standing up very nicely with some good falls in W SA, they have had 15-30mm and still raining so great signs for us
Rain band will Slowly move this way it will take all day but thats ok longer it takes more moisture to be pulled down into it
Huge weekend ahead sure many of us will be on here all weekend exciting times watch SA radar today will be good viewing.

Dont like storm chances today so many things have to be over come for them to occur as some have already mentioned just a huge rain event once again

[Karl Lijnders]

DJ is right to keep up to date with warnings and use them as gospel in the course of preparations in emergency situations. We will update those warnings on here in the flood warnings thread and supplement the forecasts with our own and commentary of course. Sometimes the ameteurs can get it right before the officials do....

Cloudband looking a treat with plenty of cold rising nicely in behind.

[rikjpool]

Shane, send me a PM With your mobile, or someone with SHanes mobile number please send it to me, I have the all clear after work to head out. So im all prepped and ready to go as soon as 5pm hits.

[Karl Lijnders]

Update 9am:

Rain areas are approaching Adelaide along a strong cold front and troughline. There is the odd isolated thunderstorm embedded in the rain with locally heavy falls. Falls of 10-30mm have been recorded over a widespread area overnight with further rain continuing to fall over the region. 30mm overnight @ Nullabor and up to 27mm so far at Minnipa with rain continuing to fall there. Cold air is evident behind the rainband over C SA and further offshore.

Fine and partly cloud skies greets VIC this morning with the far west likely to see increasing cloud and some patchy rain this afternoon, likely from 3pm onwards in the far SW and 5pm along the W border. Isolated showers and thunderstorms a chance over the NE and C ranges this afternoon after 3pm.

For latest warnings visit http://www.bom.gov.au

[AUSSKY]

From our AUSSKY Central Ranges Weather Discussion (Clyve Herbert)

VICTORIAN CENTRAL RANGES WEATHER UPDATE
29th October - 3rd November 2010
OVERVIEW: A milder humid northerly airstream establishes across the Central Ranges Victoria Friday ahead of a deepening trough approaching from South Australia. Through Friday cloud will thicken gradually then showers later and a chance of thunder, showers tending to rain periods overnight into Saturday with some heavy falls likely. The surface trough will linger across Victoria through Saturday and Sunday with an upper low mixing in from the west later Saturday, a surface low is anticipated to form across Victoria Saturday and Sunday. Rain and showers persisting Sunday then tapering off to scattered showers Monday and Tuesday.  A colder phase commencing through Sunday to at least next Wednesday, a high pressure system settles the weather down from next Wednesday with chilly nights and sunny days. Cold southerly winds from Sunday to Wednesday. The next trough in the sequence appears later next week or next weekend with more showers.

DAILY WEATHER EXPECTATIONS
FRIDAY 29/10/10: Freshening northerly winds and increasing cloud, a few showers later and a risk of thunder, patchy hill mist developing, showers tending to rain or drizzle overnight and a risk of heavy falls. MIN TEMPS 8 to 12°C MAX TEMPS 17 to 19°C

SATURDAY 30/10/10. RISK OF SIGNIFICANT STREAM RISES LATER OR OVERNIGHT: Cloudy with rain and drizzle at times, some heavy falls likely, chance of thunder, areas of hill fog, northeast winds becoming lighter, chance of squalls with thunder. MIN TEMPS 9 to 12°C MAX TEMPS 12 to 14°C

SUNDAY 31/10/10.   FARMERS COLD WEATHER ALERT: Cloudy with showers tending to rain or drizzle mainly morning, areas of hill mist, winds shifting southerly and strengthening through the day, becoming colder, showers continuing overnight and a chance of hail. MIN TEMPS 6 to 9°C MAX TEMPS 9c to 12°C

MONDAY 1/11/10. FARMERS COLD WEATHER ALERT: Areas of low cloud/mist with showers in the morning, cold and occasionally gusty south winds, chance of hail, chance of sleet over the higher parts, risk of thunder. a few sunny breaks through the day mainly northern areas. MIN TEMPS 3 to 5°C MAX TEMPS 8 to 10°C

[Blackee]

Temps are quickly on the increase, probably 60-90 minutes ahead of forecast.
This improves the chances of reaching 30 today.

[Ken]

Another thing to watch is that the forecast temperature trend is similar to the cold outbreak a couple of weeks ago except not as cold i.e. EC currently suggests an overall downward trend all the way from this arvo (Fri) until early Mon morning with around 10C forecast for Tullamarine by 5pm Sun arvo. Its ensemble suggests a couple of small "hiccups" in this trend Sat morning and Sunday. In this case, the max temps this weekend could be reached earlier in the day rather than later, so the official forecast max's for Sat/Sun in Melbourne (19C and 17C respectively) may not be representative of the cold temperatures for most of the remainder of each day.

[rikjpool]

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We need to incorporate a "like" button in this forum. Haha

Thanks for the info Ken.

Sitting just shy of 20 here atm. No cloud in the sky, all burnt up from this morning. Looking forward to what the day brings.

[Harley34]

When the BOM thunderstorm forecast becomes available, can somebody post it up? Will be interesting to see what the BOM have decided as in where, if any, of the convective areas are.

24 degrees and still rising

[Supercellimpact]

Don't think there's going to be any convection today guys here it's 20 and dp is 11.6 and falling.

[Tempest]

According to my brother's online WS in Narre Warren Sth, temp there is currently 26.9 DP 15.0