More heat and possible records: January 19-27

[occluded]

Max of 40.6C on the PWS here today, thankfully the forecast of 'Humid and hot' didn't eventuate with DP's around 13C for much of the day which meant the evaporative cooling did quite well today.

Forecast for Friday has nudged up each day - now 45C forecast.

Horrendous temperatures in SA, been looking at Meteye all day in fear.

[Sean]

Fell just short of 40c.

nice stats everyone.... incredible observation day.

I think that 49.5c will be max for the day for the AWS's but .... correct if I'm wrong...there are also the non Auto sites (S.A has about a dozen of them) that report for the 9am max. 50c could still have been passed but I guess we have to wait for those sites to report in the next 12 to 18 hours.

EC just did an upgrade on it's 900 hPa wind speeds from 11am to 2pm in central areas tomorrow, especially south of the divide into Melbourne. EC, Access C and R 00Z runs all have possible gusts 70km/h + in the late morning to early afternoon off the dividing range. IMO, based on the data I'm looking at, central district should be upgraded to an extreme fire danger rating.

EC temps also bounced up again. 44C western burbs, 42-44C for eastern burbs. Probably about 40C here which will be second only to Black Saturday.

Mean winds stay moderate - mainly 20-30km/hr - thankfully. Gusts are a bit of a worry. These tend to be bad in the area north and northwest of Melbourne and Gippsland. Gippsland is looking at possible January records tomorrow alongside northcentral.

EC got showery days for Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in the next week. Looks best in the east. Probably our best chance for a bit of a drink in five weeks.

What are 'showers'?

[jimmyay]

It must have been carnage for the animal life, birds, bats in Adelaide and surrounds after today. So sad.

[Tassiedave]

Does people putting pictures of car thermometer readings on social media and then presuming its the actual temperature annoy anyone else?

[stevco123]

Does people putting pictures of car thermometer readings on social media and then presuming its the actual temperature annoy anyone else?

Biggest pet hate ever in terms of weather related. Closely followed second is media jumping on 'heatwaves' when the temperature dares you reach 35 on one day only.

[93ben]

Does people putting pictures of car thermometer readings on social media and then presuming its the actual temperature annoy anyone else?

Thing is my car gives the right temp after its been driving for a bit. If people take the photo before they drive then the temp is inaccurate. The car will always be hotter than the temp when its been idle for all that time.

[Sean]

Feeling pretty cool down this way atm. Nice breeze

Tmr is going to be one of those days where the 'feel' at 9am is going to dictate how the day unfolds weather-wise.

If we reach 35-36 between 9-10:30am, 45c is a real possibility. Whereas if it's not 40 by 1pm, then Melbourne's Jan record probably is safe.

Am ready for a surprise either way given today's sneaky 40 (tho Jas called that one), so perhaps not a surprise among ppl on here


Part of me wants to reclaim our damn record! The Heat is cooking my brain

[QldTwister]

WOW amazing day in SA just INSANE so many records and SO MANY places in the the 46-49c unherad off like 10 years ago just amazing heat

Today was great, hit 40c here spent hours at the beach and did a solid 10k walk light to mod E SE winds not a cloud LOVING this heat.

The evenings with the wind just prefect back to around 30c atm so nice out there, outside right now

Tomorrow wow if only change was 3 hours later we break so many records

Watch the murray espec Mildura but maybe more so Swan hill all time records could fall there and SW NSw could get 50c sliight chance if no cloud and not to windy Pooncarie ivanhoe those kinda places.

What a summer we are having, this really will become the norm i feel, wet stormy Nov Dec then hot dry mostly ] SE winds with odd mid 40s day in S vic mamy more in N Vic Jan and Feb aprat from odd tropical intrusion

Prob be last massive record samshing heat wave of summer but much more heat and dry yet to come

Stay cool for 6 or so hours tomorrow will be all over in 24 hours

[QldTwister]

Ps Def wana break record but dont think we will in Melb, Avalon maybe crack 47c ad outer N and NE burs 45c maybe just maybe 46c

[Wilko]

Max 40.3 at 4pm
Strange day as it felt quite humid which is unusual given the high max temp
Being relatively close to the bay the onshore winds have really ramped up the Humidity for the last 2 weeks which has been quite uncomfortable in our house with the Evap cooling.
We are very fortunate though compared to the toasty temps north of divide
Will be permanent scarring by the time this sequence ends

Now lookout gang ..the Gates of the “furnace” are officially open for Southern Vic
The Northery heat bomb on the way !
Cape Otway
28c at 12 midnight Winds NE at 20km/h
Cape Otway
35c at 12 midnight Winds NORTH at 50km/h

I don’t think the timing of the change will matter all that much cause by 1pm
It will probably be close to 46c

[Wilko]

The trend continues with the forecasts continuing to underestimate.these max temps
The same thing happened in the Northern Hemisphere last year
Aireys Inlet foreacast for 2am was 28c reality 33c
Ouch

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Viewbank 34.1 @ 4.20am

[tonycynic]

Down to 26 here. Going to be a hot day laying artificial grass on a black rubber base for a hockey field. Melting shoes yesterday. Early start, early finish. Bring on the change.

[Adam38]

35c here at 5:30am... incredible and a little concerning.

[Rhys_34]

35c here at 5:30am... incredible and a little concerning.

Yes we are tracking 4-5C above what Black Saturday was at the same time of day but as the day goes on it will become obvious this is nothing like Blck saturday conditions in terms of wind and also around 1-2C cooler for an absolute maximum today...

[JasmineStorm]

sat on 30c here most of the night, now around 29c. Some ripper temp spikes during the night across the state

Change timing on the Melbourne CBD according to the latest model runs 12Z

Access R - 3.30 to 4pm
Access C - 3pm to 3.30pm
GFS - 2.30 to 3pm
EC - 2pm to 2.30pm

[stevco123]

Black Saturday was 19 or 20 degrees at 6.30am, 40 at 10am. That was for Dandenong, when i lived there. This is something else today. Winds not that strong, but strong enough to cause problems with bushfires today

[hillybilly]

sat on 30c here most of the night, now around 29c. Some ripper temp spikes during the night across the state

Change timing on the Melbourne CBD according to the latest model runs 12Z

Access R - 3.30 to 4pm
Access C - 3pm to 3.30pm
GFS - 2.30 to 3pm
EC - 2pm to 2.30pm

Placement of the wind change looks consistent with EC. That model looks to have sped up the change by 30 to 60 minutes. It picked the Friday change three weeks ago to within minutes so I’d lean towards it (perhaps wishful thinking).

Min of 28C here. DP has risen all night which is most odd (and good) with a stinker ahead. DP is now 16C. Wind have backed off the last hour, which is typical here. It is usually most windy up here just before sunrise on these days. Was uncomfortably windy around 5am.

Going by EC wind change hits Cape Otway about 7am, bottom of the bay just before noon and city about 2pm, give or take. No real change in the temperatures.

[hillybilly]

Today’s front is running earlier than Black Saturday. That’s why it’s so much hotter earlier. Doesn’t mean anything for the final number. The 850Ts peak around 27 to 28C over Melbourne, which usually translates to 42-45C. The higher humidity and bit of cloud will take the edge off the worst, but still leaves us with a horribly hot day.

[Onetahuti]

Black Saturday was 19 or 20 degrees at 6.30am, 40 at 10am. That was for Dandenong, when i lived there. This is something else today. Winds not that strong, but strong enough to cause problems with bushfires today

Low overnight of 24.1°C @ 12:10AM which would have felt mild if outside, 31.5°C @ 6:00AM, strongest wind 31km/h @ 6:12AM, currently 33.5°C.
Early visit to see 'the better half' at nursing home, may linger and enjoy the a/c at their expense, otherwise indoors till the change arrives, happy to accept the EC version hb.