Hot and thundery - Tropical moisture feed - Jan 4 to 14 2015

[stevco123]

Bureau at it again like the old days. .

Forecast of rain yet radar shows zilch. A 3 year old could make a more accurate forecast. So annoying.

They could at least add the word developing, or possible.

My forecast is now for a dry day today and tomorrow with light rain early Sunday morning. 2-6mm.

[dazrain]

Bureau at it again like the old days. .

Forecast of rain yet radar shows zilch. A 3 year old could make a more accurate forecast. So annoying.

They could at least add the word developing, or possible.

My forecast is now for a dry day today and tomorrow with light rain early Sunday morning. 2-6mm.

maybe a 3 year old is in charge, it is the holiday season

[Australis(Shell3155)]

got no idea.. Im ready for it tho.. disappointing for those that are in the need. but that's weather for ya..
Waiting for you guys to get out of bed for some info.. radar looks very dismal..

Blackie try again for those Photo's. been a while since I uploaded any either and I have forgotten how shrink and do them.
45mm in an hour. hope it didnt wash the new drive way away..

[Skywalker]

About to hit the road for my morning ride, that in itself should say it all. According to all the predictions this week I shouldn't even be considering it.

[dazrain]

Just drove from Brighton to Southbank for work. Steady drizzle the whole way in.

BTW I noticed about 5 little white mushrooms/fungi growing in our lawn late yesterday! Bizarre for January.

[Macedonian]

How aggravating. 0.4mm here overnight. The way they carried on on the weather report on TV last night I expected to be floating this morning.
I'm so over overdramatised reporting on television. There was someone saying that the state was going to flood and then someone from some CFA or something saying that the forecast rain won't really help the bushfire season.
Doom and gloom prophesising about an event that hadn't even yet happened.

[stevco123]

Heavy drizzle here.

Interesting how the wind is a strong southerly but radar showing rain coming in from North.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Mizzle here.. - More Mist than Drizzle..

[Macedonian]

I wasn't talking about what people had already had Hillybilly. I was talking about what was forecast for overnight and today and how they went about it on the telly last night.

[Lara_Hunter]

Drizzle from Lara to Tullamarine on the commute to work. Drizzle now lightened right off but the last 20 minutes has seen the radar build to our north west. Not ideal as I have some critical works to get done today and the boys wont be getting out of the sheds. Im expecting a wet day

[droughtbreaker]

Media are so reactive these days. BOM made a huge mistake yesterday by explicitly including severe thunderstorms in the official forecasts rather than the usual severe thunderstorm warnings if things started to develop.

It's weird because these days BOM generally take the ultra conservative line, often forecasting 'possible shower' right up to a day or two out from a progged rain event. This is why I was a bit taken aback when I saw the 'large hail, heavy rain, damaging wind' line appearing in the official Melbourne and central district forecasts. The media has gone into its standard frenzy of hyperbole, mock concern and hyperventilating newsreaders etc. and in the end (as we all know can happen) we were stuck under tropical murk and we got nothing dramatic at all in central areas. Sadly, at the end of the day it's the BOM who will cop it but the media always gets off scot free for its role in the drama.

Anyway, still under the tropical murk with a bit of drizzle around, although a heavy shower is threatening on radar.

The system is a complex one, and the model flip flopping and rearranging continues as a result. Rain still forecast for every day but now the heavy burst seems to be coming on Monday/Tuesday as a tropical inland low 'bombs' in the Tasman and becomes an ECL.

[stevco123]

Looking at the satellite, it could in fact possibly be sunny later

Now there's an epic fail on the BoM part if that were to happen.

[Macedonian]

That's exactly what I was talking about Andrew.
The way so called news is reported these days.
That guy that was getting all doomy about bushfires and saying the rain would only be a temporary reprieve and that in Victoria it would be hot and dry by the end of January and February!
Well derrr!!!

[stevco123]

That's exactly what I was talking about Andrew.
The way so called news is reported these days.
That guy that was getting all doomy about bushfires and saying the rain would only be a temporary reprieve and that in Victoria it would be hot and dry by the end of January and February!
Well derrr!!!

And he's got a crystal ball has he.

Every year since I can remember they have been going on about how this year will be worse than last year for bushfires. The way they portray it there will be BUSHfires in the CBD

[Gordon]

12 mm here to add to the 3.5 mm yesterday.

A few heavy showers this morning - one thing I'm noticing with this system is how much it 'wants' to rain. Cells pop up out of nowhere and when they do, rainfall rates are right up there. If we get a half decent trigger I can imagine the deluge.

[Cloudburst]

Overcast here this morning, need some clearance to see any rain today I would think. The thing about these long drawn out set ups is often you will get your downpour in the last minute and it could all come in a short period. Models suggesting best rain could be Monday and Tuesday now.

[I_Love_Storms]

Light to moderate drizzle on the way in this morning, then turned to a burst of moderate to heavy rain. Enough to get gutters flowing well. I will say it now, if you get stuck under a decent cell today you will likely be flooded, the airmass is saturated to the max and if these cells can hold coming in from the NW the suburbs will get smashed. Upper trough well back as indicated in Weatherzone chart:



Edit: Those cells aren't doing too much but if they can amplify later we may be in luck...have seen it previously on days like this where they just hang around then amplify as heating increases (minimal increases today), trough gets closer

[StratoBendigo]

Looking at the satellite, it could in fact possibly be sunny later
Now there's an epic fail on the BoM part if that were to happen.

That might not be a bad thing - adding a bit of solar heat to the mix this afternoon. Some very moisture laden tropical air is up around Broken Hill and heading our way and the breeze is Northerly here this morning, so still reasonably hopeful.

It seems the whole thing has been delayed in its arrival - forecast models repeatedly pushing it later and later than anticipated. No wonder we're all going balmy.

18Z GFS not bad for Northern Vic. Still gunning for about 65mm in Bendigo. Melbourne in a bit of a hole.

[Rhino]

Yep suns out here....just to add more fire to the bubbling cauldron . Will happen quickly when it develops later, just relax, it's still developing.

Rhino.

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah would absolutely love the sun to come out, temps would spike to about 25c, would be on this afternoon for storms if this was the case