Victoria: Rain event - 16th-20th Dec 2011

[Jake Smethurst]

Yes Lily can hear thunder again, just about to go outside again and check it out.

Jake, what do u think the severe potential is for Melbourne now? I'm expecting some short heavy bursts but nothing spectacular but thinking there must be a chance of damaging winds for coastal areas around the bay ie st kilda beach

Yes in regards for Melbourne biggest threat will be flash flooding, but damaging winds as you say is also a potential on top of the fresh to strong northerly flow we already have.

[Rivergirl]

Yes looking like Melbourne and SE suburbs may cop the red/orange part. I can see black cores coming and going in the radar

[Rivergirl]

VIC Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Large Hail, Flash Flooding, Damaging Winds
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For people in the Central and parts of the Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:47 pm Sunday, 18 December 2011.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. Locations which may be affected include Ballarat, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Geelong and Melbourne.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances

[stratospear]

We've had two brief heavy rain showers this evening. Lots of rapid development to our West, but still hit and miss at this stage (it's not filling in).

Stawell has had 74mm today - nasty.

[Lily]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/flash- ... 6225187071" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UPDATE 9pm: MELBOURNE residents are being urged to brace for storms after fierce weather battered the state's west today.

State Emergency Service spokesman Lachlan Quick said the storm front was expected to arrive in Melbourne before midnight and the challenge for the SES was to work out when and where it will hit.

He said volunteers were on standby to respond to call outs in the Melbourne metropolitan region with the possibility of weather intensifying over the south-eastern suburbs.

He urged Melburnians to keep a close eye on local conditions.

Earlier, weather bureau duty forecaster Scott Williams the thunderstorms could dump up to 20mm of rain over metropolitan Melbourne.

“The storm system should weaken as it moves east,” Mr Williams said.

Stawell copped 60mm of rain between 5pm to 7pm from a thunderstorm cell now hovering over Ballarat.

Emergency workers are attempting to rescue people trapped in their home by floodwaters in Concongella, just outside of Stawell.

Floodwaters are receding in Mildura after the town received more than double its average monthly rainfall this morning, with 59mm of rain before 9am causing flash flooding.

Emergency volunteers have so far responded to more than 200 calls for assistance in the state’s west, with the majority in Mildura.

Whole streets were closed off due to the flooding, homes were inundated and two ceilings collapsed.

There have been reports of knee-height flooding in some areas, with homes being sandbagged.

Mr Williams said intense storms were also lashing the Grampians.

He said Mt William had received 65mm since 9am.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued severe thunderstorm warnings for the Central and parts of the Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

"Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours," it said.

"Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. Locations which may be affected include Ballarat, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Geelong and Melbourne. "

The SES advised people to keep clear of fallen power lines, not to walk, ride or drive through flood waters, and switch off electrical appliances.

Flood warnings for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins are also current.

[typhoon29]

we have been side swiped by storms at the moment. Awesome sound and light show. One of the best flangs I have seen in ages, purple in colour strobed about 5 times, unreal. As to rain, ha what is that?? 5mm so far.........

[Bellarine]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - MELBOURNE AREA

for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in parts of the
Western Local Warning Area.
Issued at 9:15 pm Sunday, 18 December 2011.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 9:15 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Ballan and Daylesford. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. They are forecast to affect Bacchus Marsh, the area north of Bacchus Marsh and the area south of Bacchus Marsh by 9:45 pm and Laverton, Melton and Werribee by 10:15 pm.
Very heavy rainfall, flash flooding are likely. There is also a risk of large hail and damaging winds
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances
The next warning is due to be issued by 10:15 pm.
A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Central and parts of the Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera districts.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

[Lily]

Thanks to the BoM http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV36830.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Initial Moderate Flood Warning for the Wimmera River

Issued at 9:10 pm EDT on Sunday 18 December 2011

In the 24 hours to 9 AM Sunday, rainfall totals of up to 45mm were recorded in the Wimmera catchment. Since 9AM, further totals of up to 74mm have been recorded mainly in the upper Wimmera catchment. Rain is still falling in the upper catchment.

Significant stream rises are currently being observed in the upper reaches of the Wimmera river and its tributaries.

Upstream of Horsham

The Wimmera River at Glenorchy is expected to exceed the minor flood level (4.0 metres) early Monday morning. Early indications are that a peak around the moderate flood level (4.75 metres) can be expected later Monday.

Horsham and Quantong Bridge

A forecast peak for Horsham will be provided once upstream gauges have peaked.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV65756.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Central and parts of the Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 8:47 pm Sunday, 18 December 2011.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. Locations which may be affected include Ballarat, Bendigo, Seymour, Maryborough, Geelong and Melbourne.

[Rhino]

Bloody pouring here at the moment, hardly any lightning though, and heavy enough to wake my 3 year old up damnit.

Rhino.

[Dc449]

Keeping an eye on the cell NW of Melb. Hope it comes SE and stays strong!!!

[I_Love_Storms]

Not sure why they mntion se subs in particular? But will see. Think the northern subs may be most at risk at this time if that red line keeps strong

[TheFishmanAU]

Not sure why they mntion se subs in particular? But will see. Think the northern subs may be most at risk at this time if that red line keeps strong

Please, it will shut me up for until the next one.

[nafets]

Really really really hoping the cell north of Ballan hits here, although it will pass way to the north, as its moving more to the east than south east!

[BigBen]

Looks like it's smashing Daylesford, with Blackwood and Bacchus Marsh about to cop it.

The line looks amazing on radar, the shield is going to have to be super good to deflect this baby.

[droughtbreaker]

A bit scary to see that bow on the radar just as it approaches here. Rumbling away in the distance now.

[dagget]

Plenty of action to my north and west, almost continual flashes but no thunder as yet, just checked the radar and figured we are in for it in about 15 mins.

[Rhino]

No wonder the Wimmera river going into moderate flood, that area west and NW of Avoca must have had 110-120mm of rain the last 48 hrs, amazing stuff. Been a memorable system for alot of western and northern areas and still not over. Could get decent totals in metro area overnight too.

Rhino.

[Jake Smethurst]

Nice light and sound show from the cell that just broke in half and went by.

Quite a nasty frontal edge on the larger complex west of Macedon at the moment. Might be in for some really heavy rain soon Andrew!! It's moving more east than southeast. Few strong gusts on it as well looking at doppler. Some interesting wind signatures at Ballan too.

Managed 5mm so far for the event!! A lot less than the 30mm I was expecting!! Haha. Haven't been wrong about rainfall for here in a while too! Warrnambool about 40 mins west of here got 20mm or so.

[I_Love_Storms]

A bit scary to see that bow on the radar just as it approaches here. Rumbling away in the distance now.

yeah there seems to be a heap of energy for this time of night. Still in a strengthening phase it seems..

[Blackie]

The line approaching central from the NW is very lightning active...just took a walk to the beach and it's looking great. A few crawlers which stretched a very long distance and some in the far distance CGs . Flashes every 10 seconds or so.