Victoria - Tropical rain event - February 2nd-8th 2011

[Karl Lijnders]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

DAY 2 THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 12:36 pm Thursday, 3 February 2011,
Valid from midnight tonight until midnight on Friday, 4 February 2011.
A tropical atmosphere will extend southwards on Friday and a low pressure trough will develop over western Victoria. Flash flooding is possible over most of the State although large hail and damaging winds can't be discounted.

[James]

thats more like it!!! - although i thought today was supposed to be good for storms as well

least its cooler, good chance to open the house up and do the vacuuming!

[Karl Lijnders]

Your speaking my language James. Last evening was atrocious! So much tension in the atmosphere and I am talking about the weather lol!

I guess with the flow re-organising itself that things are looking much better tomorrow as the cold surge of air comes up from the south and provides us with better steering from the NNW. The steering today looks to ESE for the Melbourne area, even if the chance area was dragged south.

Next 2 days look very productive. We don't need 5 days of teaming rain to get floods anymore and that is the scary parts so we will be ramping up our commentary from tomorrow to bring some insight into the movements of the system.

[Harley34]

Loving that 2nd BOM chart Karl has posted up for Friday. Looks to me like Melbourne has it's shot tomorrow. Today is totally understandable, as the instability is currently N of the Ranges. Tomorrow should be sweet, and although a SC of 2 is not out of the question, i would be happy for a few cells to pass my area with some nice lightning and good rainfall totals. Been rather dry here lately and the game of patience has been stretched a little, especially in terms of thunderstorms, so that graph has in some way made me confident again.

[schitzengiggles]

Yep. Last night was flipping irritating alright. So many juicy looking clouds about, but too scared to drop their bundles.

In other news, Karl, check the view from the Cemetary in Lilydale - if you've not done so already. It's just down the road from Violi hill and it has a much better view IMO.

[Karl Lijnders]

Know it well and may check it out tomorrow afternoon

It appears we will have a few chasing and let me say it is nice to be back in Melbourne for some stormy stuff!

Expecting rainfall of locally 50mm+ tomorrow particularly in the E and N suburbs as storms stack up a bit with the friction of the rolling hills.

[Karl Lijnders]

IDV35800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Note: This Flood Watch is a heads-up for possible future flooding and is NOT a
Flood Warning (see note below)

Flood Watch for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins
Issued at 1:26 pm EDT on Thursday 3 February 2011
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Regional Office

A low pressure trough will be almost stationary over Victoria until Saturday
when a cold front will move across the state. On Sunday a ridge of high
pressure will become established over Victoria.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with locally heavy falls have been
forecast for the remainder of Thursday through to Friday. Scattered showers
will continue on Saturday and increase to areas of rain during the afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will persist until late Saturday afternoon.

Isolated rainfall totals of 50 mm are possible on Friday. Widespread rainfall
totals of 30 to 50 mm with higher isolated totals on the ranges have been
forecast for Saturday.

The forecast rainfall may cause renewed stream rises and possible areas of
flooding in the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins during Saturday and
into Sunday.

Catchment specific Flood Warnings are current for the Loddon and Avoca Rivers.
The forecast rainfall may lead to increases in water level in the lower Avoca
marshes as well as in the Kerang lakes, Loddon River and creeks around and
downstream of Kerang.

The Bureau is monitoring the situation and will issue/update catchment specific
warnings when required.

[Karl Lijnders]

IDV35700
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Note: This Flood Watch is a heads-up for possible future flooding and is NOT a
Flood Warning (see note below)

Flood Watch for the Goulburn and Broken Basins
Issued at 1:26 pm EDT on Thursday 3 February 2011
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Regional Office

A low pressure trough will be almost stationary over Victoria until Saturday
when a cold front will move across the state. On Sunday a ridge of high
pressure will become established over Victoria.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with locally heavy falls have been
forecast for the remainder of Thursday through to Friday. Scattered showers
will continue on Saturday and increase to areas of rain during the afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will persist until late Saturday afternoon.

Isolated rainfall totals of 50 mm are possible on Friday. Wideapread rainfall
totals of 30 to 50 mm with isolated totals of greater than 100 mm on the ranges
have been forecast for Saturday.

The forecast rainfall is expected to cause significant stream rises and
possible areas of flooding developing in the Goulburn and Broken basins during
Saturday and into Sunday.

The Bureau is monitoring the situation and will issue catchment specific
warnings when required.

[Karl Lijnders]

IDV35600
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Note: This Flood Watch is a heads-up for possible future flooding and is
NOT a Flood Warning (see note below)

Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa,
Ovens and King Catchments)
Issued at 1:25 pm EDT on Thursday 3 February 2011
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Regional Office

A low pressure trough will be almost stationary over Victoria until Saturday
when a cold front will move across the state. On Sunday a ridge of high
pressure will become established over Victoria.

Isolated rainfall totals of up to 100mm are forecast for the North East
catchments during Friday. Further widespread rain with heavy falls are also
forecast during Saturday with totals of 80 to 120 mm expected. Higher rainfall
totals are possible on the ranges.

The forecast rainfall is expected to cause significant stream rises in the
North East catchments which may lead to areas of flooding developing across the
coming weekend.

The Bureau is monitoring the situation and will issue catchment specific
warnings if and when required.

[chillout]

latest access puts melb right in the firing line sat.

[David]

Yep ACCESS 3day going for some 100mm+ falls from tomorrow morning till Saturday with much of Melbourne included.
All models except GFS going for heavy rain, I wouldn't be surprised to see GFS increase rainfall for central Victoria in the next run.

[Supercellimpact]

Cells starting to fire up just north of the border then hopefully drift down here.

[Meso]

Has anyone been outside today? Been working out there all day and I've never sweated so much. The humidity is horrific!

[stratospear]

Today looks and feels just like Singapore. Seriously.

[rikjpool]

wow, that cell West of Echuca went from nothing to red core in 1 frame! Pulsy!!!

[Supercellimpact]

Yep the kerang cell looks to be coming here

[Petros]

Sun has burnt through here, 30C and rising with 45% RH, Cj billowing up in one clump to our NW. Hoping for a storm this evening.

[James]

wonder if those storms toward horsham will come anywhere near melb?

[AUS_Twisted]

The cells yesterday afternoon (not the 3 just before sunset) went up and down like a yoyo, went up the road on a eastlink overpass lookout and from nice building CU just starting to form anvils at home they shutdown before I could get there in 5 minutes.

[Meso]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING, LARGE HAILSTONES and DESTRUCTIVE WIND
For people in parts of the
Mallee and
Northern Country s.

Issued at 3:02 pm Thursday, 3 February 2011.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding,
large hailstones and destructive winds in the warning area over the next several
hours. Locations which may be affected include Swan Hill, Robinvale, Kerang and
Rochester.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 6:05 pm.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Might be time for a drive