The Australian Weather Forum

I'm thinking about heading out for a chase on Wednesday.

Shoot me a message if you are interested in tagging along.

Nice Sunset Shot.. !

very nice sunset shot. anyone else got the cicada's going beserk?

Hey all just came back from a trip to Sydney and thought I would have left the humidity there......WRONG! In Ouyen tonight and looks like a little rain has fallen here but home has had around 20mm so far but cleared for now at least. The flight from Melb to Mildura was interesting as the cloud was right up to about 30000ft according to the pilot and was only just clearing Mildura when we landed. Not really bumpy either so maybe got luck.

In a side note Hume and Eildon looked great from the air! The black water in the murray at Mildura did not

It's already going convective coming in from the east. Showers popping up again around here and out west again.

At last light rain started to fall at 2100hrs getting a little more steady now.We do need rain so very welcome. Just 1mm so far.

Thick easterly drizzle has continued here since 6pm, probably 3-4mm, a good start for the week.

REAL rain is looming in from the NE and has now breached the divide and included Omeo, so hopefully only 2 hours away from here if it holds its course.

WHAT AN INTERESTING WEEK AHEAD FOR US VIC's!!! Heavy rain in January - who would have thought! (bar perhaps Lady La Nina ).

BSCH is being a bit buggy but it is still pumping out the ridiculous 200-300mm totals for the next week.

Petros wrote:Thick easterly drizzle has continued here since 6pm, probably 3-4mm, a good start for the week.

REAL rain is looming in from the NE and has now breached the divide and included Omeo, so hopefully only 2 hours away from here if it holds its course.

WHAT AN INTERESTING WEEK AHEAD FOR US VIC's!!! Heavy rain in January - who would have thought! (bar perhaps Lady La Nina ).

I had a fair idea Petros, i have a forecast until 2013 in the forecasting thread..

Latest GFS run does'nt match BOM severe weather warning for western areas tommorow, has around 10mm for that area so no flash flooding in that. So will wait for next run by the looks cause that runs crap. Will stick with BOM's warning for tommorow and expect some heavy falls by tommorow night.

Rhino.

Haha...bloody hell! That is a bit over the top. But I think NW, NE, Nth Central will get the biggest falls following by East Central. Saying that though, a lot of places should get a lot of rain.

8++ inches of rain is progged to fall Just N of Brisbane tonight/Monday - IF some moisture from that system advects into our easterly dip/later cut-off system this week, look out the Lodden R!! (for one).

For us down in Gippy, if we can get 30mm that will be nice and will do thanks.

Hopefully the Thomson Dam will cop it. North Coast of Tassie will be in the firing line too according to GFS. I reckon 120mm here is realistic.

This is the 1 in 100 year type scenario. It is all set up. We are going to have some extremely exciting albeit destructive weather over the next 7 days.

Our last big flood in Launceston was in 1929. It was due to the flooding of the South Esk, North Esk and Meander River basins with falls in excess of 250mm in these catchments. If the models are right we could be in for a repeat!!

A rare warning has been dusted off, thanks to the Bureau!

Brown Rot Advice
for the Northern Country, North Central and North East forecast districts
Issued at 10:13 pm EDT on Sunday 9 January 2011.

Stone fruit growers in the Northern Country and North Central forecast districts and North East forecast district are advised that rainfall and accompanying high humidity during Monday are conducive to a heavy outbreak of brown rot.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Monday.

The invisible misty rain (to Bairnsdale radar) continues unabated here (4mm my guess - not taking a torch out to the gauge) - spouting gurgling along nicely to provide a good nights sleep.

Historical weather system (for our lifetime) is just unfolding - a huge easterly dip system that includes a cut-off somewhere in Vic/SA (emphasis on the somewhere), near record rains in SE QLD where our NE'ly fetch emanates, and the system is progged to be around for 5-6 days - WOW).

... and I go back to work tomorrow and miss it all.

..... and hope that not TOO much rain falls in SE NSW later in the week because I head to Merimbula the week after (greedy B arnt I?).

Lily - let me know if I've blown up the Smilie use guidelines!

That's not all that rare a warning. I have seen it pop up several times in the past few years and before then as well. We don't seem to get downy mildew warnings any more which used to be very common, brown rot seems to have replaced it.

Anyway, everything will rot after this week. I'm expecting cool climate gardens to suffer severely. Roses will be decimated along with any plant in the rose family, including stone fruit trees and apples/pears.

Certainly is unprecidented and never seen GFS pumping out the totals it has been over the last few runs, and whats really scary is the totals have been increasing. Everyone will be thumped but some areas are going to be under water if it all eventuates. Really don't know what to expect, but I know theres going to be alot of the wet stuff around and these amounts are almost unbelievable, but maybe 150mm is on the low side too.

Rhino.

Updated SWW to include Central, Nth Central & Nth Country.

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the South West, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee and Central forecast districts
Issued at 10:24 pm EDT on Sunday 9 January 2011.

Weather Situation
A broad trough of low pressure is forecast to strengthen over western Victoria during Monday.
Rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the Wimmera, Mallee and South West forecast districts and parts of the Northern Country, North Central and Central forecast districts during Monday.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Monday.