Karl Lijnders wrote:Saturday: Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms over western and central areas will become more extensive and heavy during the afternoon with local flooding developing later. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the east and northeast will tend to rain during the late afternoon with locally heavy falls and flash flooding developing during the evening or overnight. NNE winds over much of the state shifting SW/S over the western districts later. Mild and humid in C and E areas but becoming colder in the far west later.
Sunday: Heavy rain areas and local thunderstorms over C and E VIC will gradually ease from the NW during the day. Local flooding likely to continue. Showers over the remainder of W VIC with afternoon thunderstorms and hail likely. Becoming colder from the west with WNW winds developing throughout although NNE winds prevailing in the far east.
Monday: Showers, more isolated in the north will become more extensive during the afternoon over S VIC and tend to rain periods about S Gippsland and E Central areas later. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms over N VIC with possible hail. Snowfalls lowering to 1100m later. Cold with NW/W winds shifting SW later from the west.
Tuesday: Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms with hail in S and Mountain VIC will ease to showers from the west. Snow about Alpine areas. SW/S winds strong at first tending more SW later. Becoming fine over the NW with only isolated afternoon showers over the N plains. Cold throughout.
Geez Karl, good effort and (most of all) really hope you are right!!!!!
Twister - shared your concern over how moisture can advect in time for this system, but in hindsight we've had a persistant steady easterly wind here from dawn to dusk so this side of the state is at least clear of the sm air.
3 day BOM (AccessR - how come nobody seems to refer to it now that the system is on the doorstep?) shows this for Sunday...
A big weekend ahead and the SES will be busy in a few areas I reckon!
[edit] - (and maybe a bit too early to say this), but Karl has consistently stuck with this forecast over the past 3 days at least - despite the vacillating models. For me, I just love the way that GFS can predict a situation 8 days out, discount it later, then come back on track. Has happened for 3 major events this winter/spring. Not saying that we should bank on model progs out in "fairy land" - but it is well worth the effort to watch the actual system unfold. And in most events progged 6+ days lately, the "smoke/fire" theory isnt far wrong imo.
. Only hope if that amount falls it does happen over the 2 days and not like the floods in Sep when I got 92mm in 15 hours. Can't wait to see the horses in the Cox plate breastroking their way up the straight. Anyway things could still change yet, although we're gunna get rain which ever way you look at it, and it is looking increasing like it's going to dump big time. POO STINK... 
There is absolutely no connection between the weather today and tomorrow and the setup on Saturday, it is moving in from the west, there is no actual buildup of moisture over the state ahead of it, the moisture build up is over the top end and is getting dragged down by the system itself.
