Victoria: Showers and thunderstorms - October 6th-7th 2010

[rikjpool]

Hmm, this looks promising!
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast ... urn false;

[stevco123]

I regrettably agree subarctic.i think that's it for today unless that change can throw out something

[typhoon29]

a humid spring day here. The line of storms developed on cue around 11am, was great to observe driving from Beaufort towards Ballarat on the Western Highway. Had a couple of brief but heavy showers and a thunderstorm. Only 4mm here. My partner said she had hail at her work out at Delacombe (approx 3cm). At the moment low fast moving scuddy stratus rubbish is obscuring the hidding monster Cbs zooming in from the NNW. Some deep rumbles. Cells seem to become less lightning intense. I reckon they'll collapse into heavy rain.

Still could get a thunderstorm along the leading edge tonight with the SW change.

[phunkster]

Might just be me but over the last 30 mins it seems to be heading more in an ESE direction than SE, the eternal optimist in me says there might still be something on the way

[Harley34]

Looks like it's powering up near Sheoks. I still think it will hit the CBD with strong force. Even the BOM has a a severe thunderstorm warning to hit Western Suburbs and then the CBD and inner suburbs after that. IMO 10-15 mm possibly.

[Karl Lijnders]

Looks like according to radar that the N suburbs will struggle but I can make out extensive convection across the ranges north of the wind change. The wind change is pushing up quite severe looking storms in the sunlight to the west and northwest. I would think we are still in with a show. Geelong should get 20mm more which is fantastic and eating into averages!

10mm here now. So that is a good effort.

Hail is a risk with the line storms to the west.

[Leasy]

Not sure if my rain gauge is not measuring correctly, but I have only had 3.2mm for the day - 1.1mm of those happened just now. Thought for sure there would be more rain than this. Any ideas?

[Karl Lijnders]

Rain bounced around the place Elise so it could be right. I think you have just been unlucky.

Storms really making a march to the east now. Fresh cell further north from the convection I can see further to the north of the severe line of weather. This is looking very nasty!

[norfolk]

Looks like Geelong is getting smashed now. Come on.....come here now!!!

[Leasy]

Rain bounced around the place Elise so it could be right. I think you have just been unlucky.

Storms really making a march to the east now. Fresh cell further north from the convection I can see further to the north of the severe line of weather. This is looking very nasty!

Damn, I know at work we had heaps of rain, but I'm about 25km north of work so I suppose that sounds right! It's better than nothing I suppose - thanks for letting me know though, thought my rain gauge was faulty or something!

[Karl Lijnders]

Not faulty. Just bad luck

Convection to our NW is rapidly organising. Keep an eye on it!!

Looking very picturesque to the SW with storms encroaching Geelong.

[I_Love_Storms]

I'll vouch for that Karl. Looking out NW past the city the sky is full of very high bubbly Cb - maybe turning into an anvil. Edit: That Cb/anvil is going through the roof now!!! Tremendous slot of clear air in front of it as well. Wow black cores now near Avalon, watch out bayside suburbs!

[johnno]

My weatherstation is flashing so will be interesting to see if we get storms here later. Should backbuild I'm hopeing anyway.

The storm Geelong/Avalon way looks dangerous.

[Karl Lijnders]

I think things are going to get a bit wild on radar shortly as new storms develop on the N boundary of the Ballarat cells closer into NW Melbourne in the next hour. Convection NNW of here also developing, towards Lancefield/Romsey/Kyenton.

Impressive sky to the SW. Really looking rather savage.

[Nick Sykes]

Clear air here and a nice view of the development on the northern end of the line, looks good with lots of fresh development

[Twister]

Had some solid thunderstorms this morning as the trough moved overhead was GREAT to hear thunder and some nice bolts as well as some short bursts of Very heavy rain with Huge drops.

The storms were small but very Heavy dumping 12mm at the air port 3mm here and nothing in town

Forecast came off as forecast great to see and was happy to get some action this morning some big falls about and still a lot going on through central and E parts of the state

Hoping for a big week next week

Today was the first rain in over 3 weeks

[I_Love_Storms]

I think things are going to get a bit wild on radar shortly as new storms develop on the N boundary of the Ballarat cells closer into NW Melbourne in the next hour. Convection NNW of here also developing, towards Lancefield/Romsey/Kyenton.

Impressive sky to the SW. Really looking rather savage.

Yes. We are in for a ripper.

[Anthony Violi]

Could be on the cards to get smashed in a couple of hours. It could go either way way but not overly fussed about heating, atmosphere is very unstable regardless, the only difference is the severity. Will keep a close eye on it before i decide whether to stay up and watch or go to bed.

We need some fine weather out here, as my front yard is slush. To all those people complaining you live in the wrong postcode. We need a break here, finally got it last few days and now its raining again. Soil moisture is preposterously high, yesterday i noticed the paddocks in Coldstream still had residual water from the floods.

[johnno]

Massive towers to my WNW.. Its on tonight guys like donkey kong! Don't give up

[Karl Lijnders]

And right on schedule things start to get nasty to the NW. Could be a very big line of thunderstorms. Should slide over us for around 1-2hrs.

Geelong having around 10-20mm out of the line so far. SW winds into Avalon.