Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Anthony Violi]

They will also flatten out Peter, that will be our thundery rain tomorrow...the only chance is more to kick off ahead of the trough.

Still looks thundery outside and unstable through the mids so we still could get showers or rain overnight, mainly to the north of here, we are almost just on the edge for the moment until tomorrow when we should be the focus a bit more..

[Didjman]

They will also flatten out Peter, that will be our thundery rain tomorrow...

Damn! Always when I am at work:D
Peter

[schitzengiggles]

I had a few sodas under the belt and was up pretty late last night. That one that woke you up at 2 formed an hour earlier and quietly meandered around for atleast 3 hours. Would have been a ripper to go see it. She was drifting slowly S/SE over your place, then went BANG and turned due East.

[schitzengiggles]

Don't discredit fresh cells on outflow in these conditions Anthony.

[droughtbreaker]

Well, EC has 129mm here for the week and GFS has around 200mm. The first total is not out of the question but I can't see the latter total coming off.

This cloud, darkness and gloom in the middle of summer is driving me mad. Sure we need the rain after two and a half weeks of nothing (until last night), but the extreme wetness, mist, dank atmosphere and thick cloud is going to be depressing.

[Didjman]

That one that woke you up at 2.... She was drifting slowly S/SE over your place, then went BANG and turned due East.

I thought so, but with the total low cloud cover, all lightning was "sheet", and no structure visible. Storm Movement could be only discerned by the thunder.
Peter

[Didjman]

Don't discredit fresh cells on outflow in these conditions.

Was wondering about that myself. If its unstable enough, temps aren't so relevant. This morning's storm here occurred in temp of 16C.
Also, look at the radar from Heathcote to the south(its now moved west)!
Peter

[Anthony Violi]

Don't discredit fresh cells on outflow in these conditions Anthony.

Yep i didnt, i mentioned it in my first sentence..our only chance is further storms to kick off ahead of the trough.

[Didjman]

Anyone noticed the radar between Broadford/Flowerdale??
Peter

[Petros]

Thickly overcast and only a very light easterly all day, great waterskiing conditions had here (geez I'm sick of driving boats! - but the fun the kids all have....).

The sun broke through for several lengthy periods this arvo and we got to 30C (I ask you to believe)..., then at 5:30, "that" smell arrived and the cloud base lowered to our east - thick mizzle has set in for an hour now and is not recorded on the radar. Easterly rain event is on our doorstep! 22C and 82% RH (why isnt it showing "Hi"?).

Access3 flipped from no rain to handy stuff overnight tonight for us!!! - so I'm getting more confident that we may accumulate 35mm during next week in N Gippsland.

[Supercellimpact]

Just seen the Benella cell through a break in the cloud ( now it's colapsed) but it's acually a large cell but anvil is very small and fibris now. EC gone for 100+ wouldn't suprise me if we did get it with the dewpoints forecast. Also it shall be funny to see what GFS o6z tantrum has tonight lol.

[Petros]

We need to spare a thought to our SE Qld compatriarts... this model run shows the SECOND day in a row under purple rain. There will be some sad news comming from this and we are all going to contribute through supermarket prices (at the very least) to the eventual outcome.....

I personally think that Brisbane will cop the aftermath of a southern cyclone landing (aka Bunderberg) during this La Nina cyclone system - yet to come. Poor buggers - hope I'm wrong.

And for here, that easterly mizzle has well and truly set in, 15.mm so far of imaginary rain (this stuff is invisible on the radar) - if we got 5mm or so of this the top soil layer will be wetted perfectly to accept any of the 30+mm hopefully on offer this coming week.

[I_Love_Storms]

EC/Norwegian has 300mm for Brisbane over next 48 hours! Exciting weather but the ramifications for residents and businesses may be shocking.

[jmw2207]

6 Mm today.....let the week begin. Kick back and enjoy

[daviescr]

Thanks to Rhino, been keeping occupied with all the awful TV on this time of year -

Looks like a Regional Express flight from Mel to Albury is having fun and games with that storm up there:

[Blackee]

Brilliant coverage and discussion today folks!!

Nothing got off the ground up at Eildon today. A number of decent towers developed before dying off. Wind was from the SE but not cool as usual. Very tropical!!
Slightly disappointed given the development at 0800hrs and issue of STW.

This week is going to be like chook lotto (in terms of putting an accurate figure on forecast precip.) I agree with DJ, am expecting plenty of 100mm falls by this time next week. The odd 200mm is not out of the question.

[Anthony Violi]

Nah Chris thats Skaifey flying that plane..

Yeah Maleny in the Sunshine Coast hinterland is up to 200mm since 9am....i hate to say it but Wivenhoe and Somerset Dams might be in a bit of strife..

That moisture is being funnelled this way too for the next 48 hours or so into the stalled upper trough, so our totals will be decent as well.

then we get the low from the Northern Territory on Thursday and friday and the real fun starts.

What is interesting is that EC was the last model to jump aboard that scenario, but tonight went all in with it, and the totals may increase too dependant on position.

[Blackee]

Ok, here we go folks!!

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the Wimmera, Mallee and South West forecast districts
Issued at 3:36 pm EDT on Sunday 9 January 2011.

Weather Situation
A broad trough is forecast to to strengthen over western Victoria and South Australia tomorrow.
Rain and thunderstorms which may lead to local flash flooding is forecast for parts of the Wimmera, Mallee and South West forecast districts from early Monday.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EDT Sunday.

[I_Love_Storms]

Rain from the east falling here nothing better!

[daviescr]

Absolutely stunning sunset going off right now