The Australian Weather Forum

No worries Dean.

By the way BOM get your act together and start putting out some warnings like Flood watches etc some people will take this weekend as a long weekend and there be some that will go away Tomorrow for camping etc or other holidays it will be those people who may not end up seeing the warnings if you put them up to late ie Tomorrow, NSW BOM did it this morning for areas of their state what are you guys excatly waiting for

johnno wrote:No worries Dean.

By the way BOM get your act together and start putting out some warnings like Flood watches etc some people will take this weekend as a long weekend and there be some that will go away Tomorrow for camping etc or other holidays it will be those people who may not end up seeing the warnings if you put them up to late ie Tomorrow, NSW BOM did it this morning for areas of their state what are you guys excatly waiting for

Couldn't agree more.they are so frustrating at times

ROFL John & Steve.
I do agree, but I think they are waiting for the final EC run of today before firing out the warnings.
A very complex system which needs to be as accurately forecast as possible. I did hope for warnings by 1600, but as long as the media are informed by first light tomorrow then it should be all good.

Have to agree with you there, Johnno. Must remember to brush off the rain gauge I have up in Eildon (still haven't set it up since we moved), will be good to get an idea of totals up there this weekend, I'll be there from tomorrow afternoon through to Sunday (provided I can make it back home lol!).

Welcome Soxy, are you an Eildon local or part timer like a few of us here?

Some feeling makes me wonder that the low will position itself right over me -.- anyway heaps of rain for the state!!! BTW what sort of totals do you think i'm in for? Thankss

Starting to feel less confident of big falls for around here. Will be very happy with another 30mm in this one. Will wait and see what EC says tonight before I write it off.

30-40mm for us here Stefan but thats my conservative estimate

The lastest stormcast has Instability of li -4 and cape of 500 does think there will be storms in northern Vic?

Flood watches are starting to roll out finally. Here I was thinking BoM were going to ignore it completely!

Karl.. How much are you expecting, ? - divided x 2 equals my totals,
and whether to empty tanks fully or only down to 1/4.

HB you emptying yours.?

Any ideas if there would be similar flooding around Molesworth and Yea similar to sept 5th?

Just for everyone, flood warnings and watches are being posted in the relevant warning thread. Thanks heaps.

I will have my forecasts out for the system later tonight.

Well anything is possible!! Who expected the Twister east of here Sept 4?? We all were thinking floods - as per my local "flood chase" at around 1700.
Peter

Spoke too soon. EC for here upgrades from 36mm to 69mm for Sat-Sun with most (42mm) of it falling Sunday. Great times!

johnno wrote:30-40mm for us here Stefan but thats my conservative estimate

Great That would bump our average over 100mm MTD!!!! thanks

I'm guessing EC has shifted the Covergance heavy band where the surface trough meets the Upper trough and a low forms that was aound Ballarat this morning bit more East?

Heres lastest 00z NOGAPS for Saturday

NOGAPS 10am Saturday >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NOGAPS 4pm Saturday >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NOGAPS 10pm Saturday >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


EDIT: Latest EC has 80mm around Central ranges places such as Kilmore has around 80mm for the weekend if this is the case expect the odd falls of 100mm+ in the Central ranges this weekend

EC has gone nuts: 75mm predicted here for the weekend...

Check out the explosive development in Western SA!!!

Still looks the goods, all going to plan nicely. Expect a big injection of moisture overnight ahead of the system, and will start to take shape tomorrow night into saturday. Some places will get a pounding, going to be another big boost to the catchments. Next week people cant say they are 51% empty anymore, and soon enough, they will be full again much to the disgust of the government.

I dont think thbis is going to be the biggest either for the year, not by any stretch. Until we get some decent heat and humidity, which wont be anytime soon, we wont see the biblical stuff. But it will come, and it will be big.

Expecting 30-50mm here for the sequence, triple that where it matters on the ranges and catchments..

So here we go....

Friday, cloud will increase from the west and north during the morning and areas of light rain will develop over W and NW VIC during the late afternoon. Over the remainder of the state, partly cloudy skies with freshening NNE winds. The chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over C and E areas during the late afternoon and evening. Mild to warm and becoming humid.

Saturday: Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms over western and central areas will become more extensive and heavy during the afternoon with local flooding developing later. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the east and northeast will tend to rain during the late afternoon with locally heavy falls and flash flooding developing during the evening or overnight. NNE winds over much of the state shifting SW/S over the western districts later. Mild and humid in C and E areas but becoming colder in the far west later.

Sunday: Heavy rain areas and local thunderstorms over C and E VIC will gradually ease from the NW during the day. Local flooding likely to continue. Showers over the remainder of W VIC with afternoon thunderstorms and hail likely. Becoming colder from the west with WNW winds developing throughout although NNE winds prevailing in the far east.

Monday: Showers, more isolated in the north will become more extensive during the afternoon over S VIC and tend to rain periods about S Gippsland and E Central areas later. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms over N VIC with possible hail. Snowfalls lowering to 1100m later. Cold with NW/W winds shifting SW later from the west.

Tuesday: Rain areas and isolated thunderstorms with hail in S and Mountain VIC will ease to showers from the west. Snow about Alpine areas. SW/S winds strong at first tending more SW later. Becoming fine over the NW with only isolated afternoon showers over the N plains. Cold throughout.

I am expecting 20 to 50mm's here in the 96 hours to 9am Tuesday. i will be happy with anything above 25mm's in this period. Only need 37mm's to reach the yearly average, so may get there in a few days.

check this out for an awesome satpic!! As mentioned above - western SA!!
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.h ... &stop=#nav" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Peter