VIC: Cold outbreak with showers/hail 15-17 October'10

[Australis(Shell3155)]

2mm here and a very gentle start.
Didn't empty too much out of tanks for just in case, happy to run around in the rain emptying water as they fill.

[Karl Lijnders]

Heavy rain hitting Ben Nevis currently. 15mm there in the last half hour so that rain will be with Melbourne drivers from about 7-9am.

Light rain continuing here, starting to increase a little.

Good to see the rain over the NE get into all water catchments.

BTW watch for super low pressure this morning, it is falling through the floor, currently at 993hPa.

Rain still light but heavy rain now moving into Sheoaks and WNW wind shift so it is getting closer.

[stevco123]

well...i wake up and what do I see? most of metro melbourne is right in the bloody hole where there is no rain.how does that happen.grrrrr. Surely we can't miss out for a second time in 3 days...

My gauge has got 2m m though.so it has been raining.

[mick]

Wake up rain abt 4 am here.

[Karl Lijnders]

To end all whinging about us being in a radar hole or missing out or.... the rain sitting back in the W districts and just moving into Geelong now which is up to 13mm quite quickly. The NE was always going to get the piggy back rainfall that bypassed us hence the 100mm totals possible there.

C areas looking good for a drenching. Up to 40mm in the Grampians and that is heading this way.

Patience.

[Karl Lijnders]

24mm in the last hour at Rutherglen, and it is those locally heavy rainfalls that will cause the flash flooding and river rises over the NE today.

Rain filling in now.

Pressure falling through the floor too, now at 993hPa and falling fast. Might be below 990hPa by 9am!!

[Alexia]

Rain woke me 0345hrs up to 10 mm now. See Hume Dam at 83.33% so they are letting water out down 2% on yesterday.

[Karl Lijnders]

Just did my first inspection of the sky and the rainfall over C areas is falling from essentially high and mid level cloud. Got to get that rainfall coming from lower based cloud which is what is moving in ever so slowly from the west and north.

The rain over the NE of the state is has piggy backed us which models had indicated.

UK/US have 25-50mm in the rainband this morning. Norweigen on drugs suggesting heavy rain and 0mm here this morning so write that stupdity off.

Showery activity behind the rain should nett 20-30mm for the E suburbs on top of this rainfall this morning.

It will be green by November and under water by December this state!

[Karl Lijnders]

A further 11mm in the last half hour at Rutherglen pushes them to 38mm for the last few hours under a thundery mass now working it's way into Alpine VIC. Should see some flooding there locally from that alone.

15mm in Geelong with SW winds now pushing into Pt Wilson and Avalon with gusts near 40 knots.

Rain will increase once the winds shift Wly and lower cloud moves in.

4.6mm here and light rain continuing.

[stevco123]

What time is the actual change due through at this stage?
I usedto be able to see it on the BOM website where it told you what time on one of the wind forecasts, but I have lost the link.

[Karl Lijnders]

Change is moving through the W suburbs now and another wave of SW winds will hit around the middle of the day before strengthening once the rainband breaks to showers.

Coldest air tomorrow morning as DJ points out.

[droughtbreaker]

17mm here overnight at around 2am. It was hard to sleep through it as it was a very loud roar for the best part of an hour.

[Macedonian]

Mt Macedon is up to 22mm since 9am, still light rain here, all the standing water and little lakes are coming back!
still just a tad under 13C here now, very warn for this time of the morning and so early in the season. hard to believe that there is evn a chance of low snow atm, feels like a rainy summer morning (well, for this area!) here.

[Timster]

Woken up several times with the rain on the roof, and this morning shows me 22mm overnight (since about 3:30am)
Still raining nicely!

[tizza]

woken to 3mm, patiently waiting the SW change. It's right on my doorstep, with was appears to be quite a decent guster by it's obscured by trees, buildings and low cloud here.

[nafets]

Thick, moderate - heavy rain starting now. 4.2mm so far.

[tizza]

Ok I could just make out some structure to it before it hit. Many layers with a touch of greenage. It's been dead calm. It's been dead calm for about an hour and it's just hit with very heavy rain/hail(small) and it is now absolutely BELTING down, almost whiteout conditions. Will see very quick flash flooding an absolute HELL with morning traffic as the streets begin to literally flood as I type

[tizza]

Street is now a river, take it easy out there on the roads kidz! more mixed hail, temp is dropping but baro just went down to 992.9, I expect it to continue it's way down during the morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see it go below 990. The wind isn't too bad yet! Stay safe out there.

[AUSSKY]

26.2mm in Trentham so far, pressure 992.7hpa & starting to rise, pouring in Abbotsford with some small hail mixed in!!! Traffic outside has almost come to a complete standstill....

[Ken]

Latest run of hourly OCF suggests 2m temp descending through just over 8C by 3pm this arvo at Tullamarine and winds turning SW there around 10am. Meanwhile, below is one of the many snow forecast algorithms based on models. This particular one is based on US/GFS data and shows probabilities of snow down to 500m for 5am AEDT Sat morning:




The leading edge of the front was showing up well on the wind gust speed plot from ACCESS-C (capital city domain with 5km resolution) for 8am AEDT this morning: