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Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:43 am
by Harley34
stevco123 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:07 am
Is it too early to call it a massive failure?
Jesus, you really are some kind of weather pessimist at the moment. First band before delivered a little, but be patient for bands of rain/storms to push down from north of the ranges and above the border. Afternoon heating should add extra too and maybe the sun might just come out...
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:48 am
by stevco123
Harley34 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:43 am
stevco123 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:07 am
Is it too early to call it a massive failure?
Jesus, you really are some kind of weather pessimist at the moment. First band before delivered a little, but be patient for bands of rain/storms to push down from north of the ranges and above the border. Afternoon heating should add extra too and maybe the sun might just come out...
Sounds just like yesterday.
and look how much we got yesterday. Oh that's right. ZERO.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:52 am
by droughtbreaker
Macedonian wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:09 am
And just like Jan 2016 i have largely missed out up here. Mt Macedon has only scraped about 10mm from the event so far
One of the lowest totals in the area. This is not the direction that favours my mountain.
Shame about the fizzer storms for all you stormchasers. Its unfortunate that you all arent chasers of hot, dry interminably boring weather with meagre rainfall, you would be spoilt for choice in Victoria.
C'mon. Seriously.
We had just over 1000mm here last year and 1245mm at the Mount Macedon MW station. We got through the entire summer without any severe heatwaves really to speak of in the midst of the hottest summer on record through most of eastern Australia. Let's not forget, practically all of NSW and significant parts of QLD got absolutely nuked last month whilst we had an average month.
The heat and dry has caught up with us this month but I'd hardly call that interminable.
Also as we all know too well by now, you can't declare fizzers before a weather system has actually passed through, If by tomorrow afternoon we still have missed out on decent falls then that's fair enough but the main part of the system is forecast to pass through today, and the models have pretty much said the same thing in the lead up to this event.
People get too emotionally involved on here and forget that the weather is a result of nature, i.e. the laws of physics apply and just wishing and hoping that we all get the weather that we want all the time is not going to change a thing.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:53 am
by Harley34
If the Eastern suburbs can score an inch today, that's great. I'm hoping everybody too can score that 2.54 cms...
We should all be grateful for this event because the last couple of weeks were drier than stale bread and now I'm relieved to see widespread rainfall and even if last night's approaching cell faded before the metro, others and I still managed to see something and I'm happy with that...
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:56 am
by droughtbreaker
March is basically the driest month of the year for most of Victoria anyway so when these sort of systems come around it's actually a bit of an exception to the usual pattern. We could have had another massive high come in for another two or three weeks quite easily. It's happened before at this time of year.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:57 am
by Harley34
droughtbreaker wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:52 am
Macedonian wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:09 am
And just like Jan 2016 i have largely missed out up here. Mt Macedon has only scraped about 10mm from the event so far
One of the lowest totals in the area. This is not the direction that favours my mountain.
Shame about the fizzer storms for all you stormchasers. Its unfortunate that you all arent chasers of hot, dry interminably boring weather with meagre rainfall, you would be spoilt for choice in Victoria.
C'mon. Seriously.
Let's not forget, practically all of NSW and significant parts of QLD got absolutely nuked last month whilst we had an average month.
you can't declare fizzers before a weather system has actually passed through,
People get too emotionally involved on here and forget that the weather is a result of nature.
True stuff...
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:01 am
by stevco123
Hear hear to the above.
And looks like it's back to cooler weather after this (apart from Sunday) with low 20s for the next 7 days at least.
Looking forward to the start of autumn which coincidentally starts today
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:03 am
by Geoff
It's all going pretty much as I expected so far. Rain bands coming down from the north giving many of those on and north of the ranges some good falls, whilst those of us south of the divide have to make do with the leftover dregs. Now comes the interesting bit, with the trough over in the west edging closer today, bringing the cooler air into the mix, I expect rainfall to increase markedly, probably late afternoon through tonight, mostly for southern areas.
Seems to be too much general cloud cover for much in the way of storm activity, but some embedded storms are possible later, and any blue sky that does occur could lead to big storms with flash flooding likely.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:49 am
by flatcam
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:52 am
by Hawker
Not even 5mm here for a place on the northern slopes, but usually these systems
with a easterly, north easterly wind aren't good producers for us.
There will probably be a late "hurrah" and push it to 10mms,
and if we are really lucky maybe a storm.
hooroo Chris
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:55 am
by Macedonian
droughtbreaker wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:52 am
Macedonian wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 7:09 am
And just like Jan 2016 i have largely missed out up here. Mt Macedon has only scraped about 10mm from the event so far
One of the lowest totals in the area. This is not the direction that favours my mountain.
Shame about the fizzer storms for all you stormchasers. Its unfortunate that you all arent chasers of hot, dry interminably boring weather with meagre rainfall, you would be spoilt for choice in Victoria.
C'mon. Seriously.
We had just over 1000mm here last year and 1245mm at the Mount Macedon MW station. We got through the entire summer without any severe heatwaves really to speak of in the midst of the hottest summer on record through most of eastern Australia. Let's not forget, practically all of NSW and significant parts of QLD got absolutely nuked last month whilst we had an average month.
The heat and dry has caught up with us this month but I'd hardly call that interminable.
Also as we all know too well by now, you can't declare fizzers before a weather system has actually passed through, If by tomorrow afternoon we still have missed out on decent falls then that's fair enough but the main part of the system is forecast to pass through today, and the models have pretty much said the same thing in the lead up to this event.
People get too emotionally involved on here and forget that the weather is a result of nature, i.e. the laws of physics apply and just wishing and hoping that we all get the weather that we want all the time is not going to change a thing.
I did refer to the event that largely missed us in Jan 2016. Mt Macedon isnt favoured by these events.
Thanks for the lecture anyhow Droughtbreaker. Ill make sure i check with you before i post my opinion again.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:16 am
by Blackie
stevco123 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:07 am
Is it too early to call it a massive failure?
You're kidding, right? There have been significant storms and rain around the state since yesterday. Look!
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/
Please, ease back on the ridiculous statements like the above. It's no fun to read and doesn't really add to a constructive conversation.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:21 am
by snowfall
Hi everyone
Another newbie here - really enjoying reading all the information and analysis being posted. Just to report from Gisborne South, we struck it fairly lucky yesterday (which is not always the case) with an event total so far of 23.6 mm, mostly from two heavy downpours, one yesterday morning and then again in the late afternoon. Currently in thick fog!
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:23 am
by Sean
I think he's referring to Melbourne which is where everyone lives. Melbourne was forecasted to get some good falls, which are non existent so far
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:34 am
by Rivergirl
Welcome snowfall
Glad you are enjoying the posts. 23.6mm is really good. It would be dry out your way.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:35 am
by Skywalker
A massive welcome snowfall! Another one from the west & my favourite part too.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:40 am
by mick
Dudded! BOM done us over again.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:52 am
by StratoBendigo
BOM seem to be talking up this afternoon's weather. I'll believe it when I see it.
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:13 am
by Wilko
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:52 am
BOM seem to be talking up this afternoon's weather. I'll believe it when I see it.
25 years of amateur weather watching tells me it will
Hose down this arvo
Seems to be building nicely to our North
Dunno about storms though with all this low level cloud
Might be more embedded
Winds are interesting at the moment as they have all directions covered around Melbourne
Re: Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:21 am
by stevco123
Got a quick 2 minute shower about 5 mins agom it really came down. So don't give hopes up yet.
And yes i was referring to the melbourne metro area for a failure so far. According to the bom we were supposed to have 10 to 20mm by now.
No one's fault ofcourse. Thats just what the weather does
