Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

[Gordon]

Yes, a very rapid update of the forecast by BOM as they looked out the window !

[Nick Sykes]

Mean looking black core NE of Stawell.

Watching with interest from Canberra.

[Wilko]

What's up guys
Are the conditions conductive for CBD area ?

[Gordon]

What's up guys
?

Lots of big storm clouds that weren't forecast by anybody or anything. Summer 2014/15 is not going to go down as the golden age of Victorian forecasting...

Pelting big drops here now after a rainless 4.30 pm forecast.

[Geoff]

Yes, a very rapid update of the forecast by BOM as they looked out the window !

As I understand it, they haven't got any windows in the building !
I remember back in the UK, our local Met Office building also didn't have any windows, they had to go up onto the roof to see what the weather was doing - just bizarre!
Just came back up the hill - 34C in Ferntree Gully, 25C in Olinda, a much bigger drop than the usual 5-6C.

[Jake Smethurst]

The BoM certainly have windows! The forecasters just have to turn around in their seats and they'll be looking out over the bay.

The thunderstorms were forecast at one point, I don't know why they didn't keep at least "the chance of" in the forecasts. Anyway, that Stawell storm looked very intense on radar, as did the Colac one earlier.

Melbourne is most definitely in with the chance of storms, particularly if one can move over the area from the west.

[hillybilly]

Sweaty 27.7C here today. Foggy start and sunny humid end. Thinking the southeasterly will act as a storm shield here, but happy to be proved wrong. Quite surprised to see intense storms, but not surprised there is convection. Scorcher out west with decent humidity providing the fuel.

Progs continue to be humid and unstable. Next decent chance is Wednesday, though expect convection every day on the ranges.

[Didjman]

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.ht ... art=&stop=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Impressive!
Peter

[Supercellimpact]

That storm line is about to hit here, hoping for some decent rain.

[typhoon29]

is weatherzone's radar kaput?

[James]

looks like nothing for melbourne, going to pass to the north

[Rhino]

Just got that line of storms through here, incredible lightning rates, most being cg's and plenty of flang's but only around 5mm in the gauge. Will take that small amount just to see the lightning alone, best in years and just wish it was during the night ......but plenty of .

Rhino.

[Didjman]

Going up to top of Pretty Sally for pics! will sit in car and let trigger do its stuff outside
Peter

[Wilko]

What's with the radar
Is it filling in just west of Melb or is that interference ?
The Satelite shows in last frame certainly showed something major I think

[StratoBendigo]

One seriously angry storm in Bendigo atm. Probably the most electrically active storm I've ever witnessed. Quite a high cloud base (& thus huge CG bolts!) and so far several mm. Looked amazing 30min ago when sunset lit it up with an orange glow underneath!

[stevco123]

Rapid development to the west, north, east and south but not in melbourne. Grrrrr

Although that one near geelong looks like it is interference.it is suspiciously a perfect long rectangle.

[Dane]

Looks like some severe radar interference at the moment. Not making it easy

[StratoBendigo]

Ended up with only 8mm from last evening's nuclear bomb of a storm. Some areas did OK such as Strathfieldsaye with 11mm and Redesdale with 29mm.

Swan Hill still have no electricity and Powercor don't expect to fix it until 3pm this afternoon. I can imagine lots of fridges and freezers will need clearing out....

[hillybilly]

Foggy with a bit of drizzle last night in Ferny Creek with 0.4mm in the gauge. Another humid one today (and indeed every day for the next week) with warm/hot conditions in the north/east and cooler in the south/west. Expecting the northeast to light up on the radar next few days with a trough hardly moving.

No real end to this pattern before Monday or thereabouts next week. Next couple of days the trough lingers northeast of Melbourne then slowly drifts west. Aloft there is a weak upper trough providing instability. Weekend looks hot pretty much throughout.

Models are jumpy on rainfall totals for central areas and not really lining up.

[Wilko]

This weather is so frustrating lately
Persistent easterly dips not strong enough to bring much rain but persistence to wreck the surf week after week after week
SE winds and quite humid but only the occasional storm argh !
I really complain about the weather but hanging out MAJOR weather system