Victoria: Rain/Storm event: 29th Nov - 5th Dec (Obs)

[johnno]

Cells in Western Victoria are tracking SW!

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, 1st Jan overnight into the 2nd January, the flow was NW though and we got caught in a stream of storms for hours. I think I copped about 8 or 9 individual cells that night from memory some with 2cm hail.

I'm not sure if I'm in the firing line for today though, The southerlies have really penetrated here and look to be stuck here for the remainder of the day. It is just a mild to warm day and no development whatsoever atm, just the remains of those storms still hanging around.

[Supercellimpact]

So what direction will the storms go tommorrow?? And area of prefrence anyone?

[johnno]

NE to SW Tomorrow

[Supercellimpact]

Nice convection north of these storms. And good they will coming from the north, just the way I like it.

[johnno]

Massive storm going up SE of Jakes area and NW of Cape Otway... It Looks lost that storm

[Jake Smethurst]

Yeah John. I think it's moving north to northwest perhaps. It has got closer, that I do know, very strange. I cannot remember a time when a thunderstorm has moved SE to NW near us. Today is one of those days!! I have seen one CG, plenty of thunder, and towers building on the southern side of the actual Cb. And whats that cloud (cant remember the name) that sits on top of the anvil, it like covers it like a cap ?? Thats there, and lovely mammatus here too.

Also got towers now going up to my far west and north too. Area around here will be filled up I would say later.

Interesting movement today!! All directions.

[johnno]

Looking good your way Jake.

I must say I am abit worried about those Storms heading towards Avoca and NW catchments.. Last thing they need is localised heavy rainfall from these storms ahead of the big rain event mid week which will bring another 3-4 inches that way not good for those rivers up there I can feel another major flood happening that way

[Jake Smethurst]

Warning area extended over my place ...

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in the South West and parts of the Central, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera s.

Issued at 2:53 pm Sunday, 5 December 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Stawell, Hamilton, Warrnambool, Ballarat, Portland, Ararat, Bendigo, Daylesford, Maryborough, Castlemaine and Kyneton.

Flash flooding and hail to 2cm has been reported near Daylesford at around 1pm.

[Jake Smethurst]

Might be tracking NNE according to latest radar returns. Interesting though!!

[Supercellimpact]

Why the is bendigo still listed it is dead for here , nothing but cirus cloud and a moderate southely breeze.

[Anthony Violi]

The storms out at Daylesford and beyond are almost ready for a directional change, not far from u-turning and heading Sw from the Nw, as the others are doing further west.

i must say that CApe Otway cell is very unusual, in that its 20.1 degrees at Cape Otway, must be decent convergence there to trigger that off as it isnt heating.

[Jake Smethurst]

It could be heating Anthony. Its 32 here and we are not that far from it. Not sure though, looks like it was a pulse really, seems to be dieing.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, the cool temps there are only right on the coast. As soon as you get anywhere inland it is hot. Here in central districts and Gippsland as well, the cool air is extending well inland right up to the ranges. Just the particular setup we have today which is a little strange and complex.

[Anthony Violi]

Look at the visual, not a cloud in sight! If it was heating they would be everywhere? Dont you think?

[schitzengiggles]

Given this event has died down now I'll post a few pics. Click for larger images.

My view of the Elmore-Heathcote cell from Mt Tarrengower.



I believe this is the outflow that the storm formed on, inbetween Moama & Mathoura NSW.
I've tricked this one up to bring out the detail as my camera failed to capture it properly.


This is the fresh convection in cell that spawned the squalls and tracked SE from Deni at around 6pm Friday night. This popped up North of the outflow boundary and was obscured by a rain shadow. I caught in my rear view mirror and turned around to watch it real quick. It's the one Brad chased to Strathmerton and apparently it tried to drop funnels.


This is the northern side of the squall line west of Mulwala on Friday night.


Southern side of the same line.

[I_Love_Storms]

It would be so weird to be in the middle of those two storms between Beaufort and Hamilton!

[schitzengiggles]

You see the convection to the N/NE ILS?

[Rhino]

Yeah typical that as soon as we have storms moving towards me in a NNW flow a SW flow develops and pushes them away from me, stupid storms , did a small chase towards Newstead but nothing major happening. Amazing that after this week of massive storms and huge convection I have 7mm in my rain gauge. Weird steering flows only made this week even more frustrating but we certainly don't need any more rain on what we should get this week so may have dodged a bullet.

Rhino.

[Supercellimpact]

3 big towers to the north of bendigo, don't know if they will develop further.