Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Ausmammal]

Yes Ausmammal, thats the airmass change and will finally rid us of the humidity. Drizzle will develop in the onshore flow, note also its been dead calm since the rain stopped. But thats a good sign the change of airmass isnt far away.

Thanks Anthony.

[Lily]

I finally got hold of dad, he's in Wollongong of all places!!! His wife is at home, she's fine, water across the driveway (it's a long one). They're well elevated there so no problem, as I had hoped all along. Thanks again Aussky, really appreciate your offer to help

[Anthony Violi]

Well, I would have thought most people are looking towards drier weather now. The excitement of the drought breaking, dams filling and all these huge events has come back down to earth with a thud IMHO. Of course, the weather will do what the weather does regardless but I am hoping for another week at least of warm and dry weather and then just a standard rain band, eg. 10-15mm.

Another 100mm+ event in a week in the current flood affected areas would break this state like it has QLD.

I have grave fears for Vic in the next 3 months, i believe we have just hit the tip of the iceberg. I can see a widespread event similar to Feb 2005 but bigger.

Only call it as i see it, as you say it will do as it pleases.

[Alexia]

We have had 17.5mm rain this afternoon was very welcome 30.5mm total. Very lucky really to miss all the big totals.I feel very sorry for all the people who have had big losses can only Imagine what that is like.

[Petros]

Another 38mm up here today so finished on 96mm so a grea t result in the end. Enough to fully wet the soils up, but not enough to cause any problems.

Was a lot of runoff from the mountain but nothing to cause trouble. Expect this is the end of the fire season (that never really was) for us

3 month rainfall outlook issued by the BOM for Summer back in November...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 1123.shtml

2 words I have to say ..Thats terrible

40 to 50% chance of above average for Victoria - nearly 50:50. Not sure what the point is. The La Nina effects often misses Victoria - viz 1998/1999/2000 and 2008.

Jeez, tell that to those of us suffering out in Vic's central and west!

[HarleyB]

The Goulburn here could exceed its highest peak for the year. The three flood peaks this year were 5.5m on December 10, 5.9m on November 28 and 6.2m on September 5. Currently it sits at 5.9m and it is still rising faster and faster 24 hours upstream. Could be a few problems there? Could anyone that knows a bit about the local rivers please help? Really hope it doesnt go above 6.2m as it may inundate Emily Street (GV Highway,) as it was less than a foot in height away from doing it in September

[Timster]

I have grave fears for Vic in the next 3 months, i believe we have just hit the tip of the iceberg. I can see a widespread event similar to Feb 2005 but bigger. Only call it as i see it, as you say it will do as it pleases.

Any chance of fine tuning that prediction with respect to the timeframe??

[Meso]

Well, I would have thought most people are looking towards drier weather now. The excitement of the drought breaking, dams filling and all these huge events has come back down to earth with a thud IMHO. Of course, the weather will do what the weather does regardless but I am hoping for another week at least of warm and dry weather and then just a standard rain band, eg. 10-15mm.

Another 100mm+ event in a week in the current flood affected areas would break this state like it has QLD.

I have grave fears for Vic in the next 3 months, i believe we have just hit the tip of the iceberg. I can see a widespread event similar to Feb 2005 but bigger.

Only call it as i see it, as you say it will do as it pleases.

AV, I've noticed you have been pretty spot on with most of your predictions over the last 12 months here. Pretty sure it was you who correctly predicted March 6/7 was brewing before it happened, along with a number of other events.

Anyway, I reckon you're on to something here too. Pretty sure I remember reading that La Nina won't begin to weaken until the winter months, so there is still plenty of time for more extreme events to occur like we've seen over the last six months or so.

In my amateur opinion Feb/March is where things could get really messy with the change in seasons.

[Dane]

Huge event in the west of the state, the far east really missed out though. I got 81mm's just about the perfect result for us.

[lynnimoon]

Just returned from a trip back down to Newbridge. Water is still rising down there. A side road that we were standing on at 4:30pm this afternoon, is now fully underwater. Ran into the local NHW president who had just returned from a drive down to Laanecoorie Weir. He said that the water was approximately 6 metres above the wall and running over in torrents. It supposedly peaked there at 8:00pm (according to him) and that water is now feeding through to Newbridge. The currents in the river are unreal to see. No pics for this last visit as light was fading and my camera doesn't do well in the dark

Posted some photo's from earlier this afternoon of Newbridge.
Here's the link: http://s1195.photobucket.com/albums/aa383/lynnimoon/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I'm hoping it works.
Thanks for the help with letting me know how to post =)

[jmw2207]

Thanks for the update lynnimoon. The Bendigo Addy website now has aerial photos of the loddon region in flood. They must have flown it today:

Here is the linky http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/mul ... -2011.aspx

[lynnimoon]

You're welcome!
They sure did do a fly over this afternoon. About 5:00 pm a plane circled over our place and then followed the river line.
Those pics they took really put it into perspective just how widely this storm has affected people.

[gerta]

Just returned from a trip back down to Newbridge. Water is still rising down there. A side road that we were standing on at 4:30pm this afternoon, is now fully underwater. Ran into the local NHW president who had just returned from a drive down to Laanecoorie Weir. He said that the water was approximately 6 metres above the wall and running over in torrents. It supposedly peaked there at 8:00pm (according to him) and that water is now feeding through to Newbridge. The currents in the river are unreal to see. No pics for this last visit as light was fading and my camera doesn't do well in the dark

Posted some photo's from earlier this afternoon of Newbridge.
Here's the link: http://s1195.photobucket.com/albums/aa383/lynnimoon/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I'm hoping it works.
Thanks for the help with letting me know how to post =)

Amazing pics. Having playing footy on that ground a few times its incredible.

Just an update on the Avoca, the Evacuation Centre is currently being Evacuated and they are being relocated to Donald.

[jmw2207]

Eppalock ...not sure when it was taken....but it was today from a fb friend. I can't believe it after being there last spring!

[Hamlan]

Photos of 2 supercells from Wed and Thurs are now posted here:

http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 567#p44567" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Brad

[gerta]

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV36810.txt" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Downstream of Laanecoorie Reservoir
The Loddon River downstream of Laanecoorie Reservoir was at 6.76 metres (Major
Flood Level 5.5 metres) and rising as of 7.00 AM Friday. Due to equipment
malfunction it is not possible to obtain current readings at this stage. GMW
advises that the estimated relaeases from Laanecoorie are currently at around
190,000 Ml/day (Major Flood Flow 43,000 ML/day). Indications are that there
will be further increases in the outflow from Laanecoorie during the evening.

What can you say about that. People along the Loddon River take care.

[jmw2207]

Pumping station at eppalock

[Dc449]

yeah rained heavily this morning and cleared to be a cracking day. I do hope we get some more Storms for now on, none of the embedded stuff.

[adon]

Hey all just got time to post having arrived home to water running in creeks we never knew about and doing some sandbagging in town to save a couple of houses. The road was dug up to let the water flow away but this area being so flat we will have water for a month or more IF there is NO more rain. In total we had round 191mm for the event so essentially 6 months of rainfall in 4 days. I will post some pics when I get some sleep.

[Meso]

Lol, I have family from Benalla trying to get to Bendigo tonight...poor buggers have been diverted around 3 or 4 road blocks!