Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[lynnimoon]

Hi all,
I'm new to the forum and have been watching avidly over the past couple of days. I am situated 4kms from Newbridge and was up there this afternoon and the river is moving extremely quickly. I have a heap of pictures but I'm not sure how to post them. Any advice on that would be great =)
We were standing on the road near the hall, looking at the river and went for a wander to the other side of the bridge (on the same side of the road) and the road was bone dry with water lapping at the sides, within 10 minutes the water was beginning to flow over the road to the other side.
Everyone was told to evacuate, but the majority of them are all sitting around the shop and pub just waiting to see what is going to come of it all.
I don't know a lot about weather by any means, and I'm not the greatest photographer, but with all the craziness going on around the country at the moment, I am willing to learn all I can. Luckily for us we won't be affected by the water when the river does finally peak, but my heart goes out to all that have been severely affected by this.
We went down to help them sandbag this afternoon, and because the road is cut to all major towns and we are basically isolated, we couldn't even get one sandbag from anywhere, so now we all just watch and wait.
Approximately 180mm here for the event according to our rain gauges...seriously crazy stuff!!

[gerta]

Hi all,
I'm new to the forum and have been watching avidly over the past couple of days. I am situated 4kms from Newbridge and was up there this afternoon and the river is moving extremely quickly. I have a heap of pictures but I'm not sure how to post them. Any advice on that would be great =)
We were standing on the road near the hall, looking at the river and went for a wander to the other side of the bridge (on the same side of the road) and the road was bone dry with water lapping at the sides, within 10 minutes the water was beginning to flow over the road to the other side.
Everyone was told to evacuate, but the majority of them are all sitting around the shop and pub just waiting to see what is going to come of it all.
I don't know a lot about weather by any means, and I'm not the greatest photographer, but with all the craziness going on around the country at the moment, I am willing to learn all I can. Luckily for us we won't be affected by the water when the river does finally peak, but my heart goes out to all that have been severely affected by this.
We went down to help them sandbag this afternoon, and because the road is cut to all major towns and we are basically isolated, we couldn't even get one sandbag from anywhere, so now we all just watch and wait.
Approximately 180mm here for the event according to our rain gauges...seriously crazy stuff!!

Welcome Lynnimoon. Certainly has been a crazy time.

Have some news from the Avoca river at Charlton. Apparently the river is now above the height of the gauge on the local bridge. Highest reading on that gauge is 8m.

[Lily]

Welcome Lynnimoon, great to have you joining us. Re: posting photos, you need to upload to something like Flicker or Photobucket, then post the (IMG) link here. If you have trouble with it, let us know. Sounds really crazy all over the other side of the state, just unreal.

Gerta Like I said, crazy. Droughtbreaker, you've had a heck of a day as have so many others here on the forum. Hope all is ok, especially for you Rhino and COF thank you for all of the information you've been posting for us today from your neck of the woods (same goes for everyone else). And to everyone who has posted pics, thank you, as always, it's part of what makes reading here so informative and interesting for those of us not in the affected areas.

Sun's out with a vengeance now in Eildon, the second it came out you started sweating again. Humidity doesn't feel as bad, but jeez that sun has some bite, things are quite steamy up this way.

I still can't get hold of my dad in Malmsbury. He's near the Coliban River but his home is high set so hoping he's ok, his health isn't the best though.

Everyone affected by the flooding, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your families. I really do hope all of our members are safe and don't suffer losses too great. Please, if we can assist, by all means let us know. Best wishes to all x

[gerta]

Welcome Lynnimoon, great to have you joining us. Re: posting photos, you need to upload to something like Flicker or Photobucket, then post the (IMG) link here. If you have trouble with it, let us know. Sounds really crazy all over the other side of the state, just unreal.

Gerta Like I said, crazy. Droughtbreaker, you've had a heck of a day as have so many others here on the forum. Hope all is ok, especially for you Rhino and COF thank you for all of the information you've been posting for us today from your neck of the woods (same goes for everyone else). And to everyone who has posted pics, thank you, as always, it's part of what makes reading here so informative and interesting for those of us not in the affected areas.

Sun's out with a vengeance now in Eildon, the second it came out you started sweating again. Humidity doesn't feel as bad, but jeez that sun has some bite, things are quite steamy up this way.

I still can't get hold of my dad in Malmsbury. He's near the Coliban River but his home is high set so hoping he's ok, his health isn't the best though.

Everyone affected by the flooding, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your families. I really do hope all of our members are safe and don't suffer losses too great. Please, if we can assist, by all means let us know. Best wishes to all x

Nar i'm fine here Lily, I'm in Marong, but my parents and brother live in Charlton. So they've been keeping me up to date with whats been going on. They should be fine as they live high up on a hill as well.

Loddon River is definitely one to watch as well unfortunately. Seems like there is an incredible amount of water going down there at the moment.

[norfolk]

I would hate to see what will happen to the Murray over the next few weeks and months! All these northern rivers heading north to the Murray and all the inland Qld Rivers heading south the the Darling and then Murray. Will be very interesting

[droughtbreaker]

We have no problems up here in terms of flooding, just inconvenience from all the water that has channeled through properties here digging up people's gardens and driveways. Our issues were flash flooding, but we only have small creeks around here and they are subsiding now. I do have concerns for people downstream on Jacksons Creek and the Maribyrnong when we get flash flooding like this up here, hopefully things are going OK down there.

I do hope that those further west are managing things, Rhino and all the others between around Creswick and the Grampians and further north that have had a really tough time of it and are battling serious issues and challenges.

[Monbulkian]

I would hate to see what will happen to the Murray over the next few weeks and months! All these northern rivers heading north to the Murray and all the inland Qld Rivers heading south the the Darling and then Murray. Will be very interesting

Just heard on the ABC news that they are concerned about Echuca. When the last lot of water from the floods went through there they said it was 3 or 4 metres lower than now Hopefully the water doesn't cause too much damage and it gets to the mouth of the river. I know that they wouldn't be complaining if that gets a good flush out.

[Skywalker]

Finally got around to checking the gauge, 22mm recorded here which brings our final total to 92mm! Just below 100mm for the YTD.

[Petros]

I thought the mouth of the Murray is already getting a flush out?

Been busy finishing things at work prior to 2 weeks off (wet Merimbula here we come) - so know about the rain in W Vic but 15-20 pages here behind to find out the guts of it.

We had 8.25mm last night and a "last hurrah" today to give us 26mm for this event, a terrible waste of humidity for us not in terms of rain (happy with what we got and the alternative is far worse with a full Lake upstream of here) - NO STORMS at all. Basically no storms for spring/summer so far.

Still overcast here but much lighter (rain chances have ceased) and the humidity is rapidly advecting away.

[gerta]

Avoca River at Charlton continuing to rise. Starting to go thru some of the houses etc. Not good news.

[Petros]

3 month rainfall outlook issued by the BOM for Summer back in November...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc ... 1123.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

2 words I have to say ..Thats terrible

Weather Bureaus across the world are all reporting what the global warming mantra allows. Just the same here I fear. They will look stupid when the realisation that the out of control warming they preach (so they can get paid) has stopped - and it wont be long before the actual NOW recorded data is indisputable!

[Ausmammal]

9/01/11 0 mm
10/01/11 3.04 mm
11/01/11 5.34 mm
12/01/11 10.92 mm
13/01/11 28.19 mm
14/01/11 40.39 mm <<<< Just under half the month total in just over 3 hours.
Total 87.88 mm
YTD: 88.88mm.

Don't expect much more if any, despite the "light showers" predicted for tomorrow morning, might get some "mizzle" if that's the new term.

[Petros]

.... The bright side though is that we are going to see full dams across the board...

....Eildon, Thompson, Darthmouth?? (our big ones)

[Ausmammal]

Is that a cooler wind change or what is it? coming through on the on BOM wind doppler up through the bay. Winds have change to South and temps seemed to be dropping down there? Will this get rid of the humudity which is still sitting on 84% here?

[Lily]

Well there you go, husband's just arrived up here and reports that Rubicon has broken it's banks and is right over the reserve again where I was earlier this afternoon (though not over road), and there's water rushing across the road around a foot deep a bit further along towards Thornton.

[johnno]

Another 38mm up here today so finished on 96mm so a grea t result in the end. Enough to fully wet the soils up, but not enough to cause any problems.

Was a lot of runoff from the mountain but nothing to cause trouble. Expect this is the end of the fire season (that never really was) for us

3 month rainfall outlook issued by the BOM for Summer back in November...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 1123.shtml

2 words I have to say ..Thats terrible

40 to 50% chance of above average for Victoria - nearly 50:50. Not sure what the point is. The La Nina effects often misses Victoria - viz 1998/1999/2000 and 2008.

This isn't just any La Nina David you have said it yourself its the strongest in neally the past 100 Years since 1917 hence all this extreme Moisture.. My point is the BOM weighed more chance of being drier than normal (60%) than wetter (40%) than normal for Summer and already they are looking like fools with half of the state smashing records with a month and a half to go

[droughtbreaker]

Another 38mm up here today so finished on 96mm so a grea t result in the end. Enough to fully wet the soils up, but not enough to cause any problems.

Was a lot of runoff from the mountain but nothing to cause trouble. Expect this is the end of the fire season (that never really was) for us

3 month rainfall outlook issued by the BOM for Summer back in November...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 1123.shtml

2 words I have to say ..Thats terrible

40 to 50% chance of above average for Victoria - nearly 50:50. Not sure what the point is. The La Nina effects often misses Victoria - viz 1998/1999/2000 and 2008.

I think the issue is the usefulness of that particular product and the fact that it is 'sold' to the public as the definitive information for future conditions. The general public treats it as that and especially the media who quote it and use it as if it is gospel.

IMO, BOM should stop producing these forecasts as they are poor value and not very scientific really, they are too one dimensional and sort of just put out there to 'keep the suckers happy' when you think about it.

[Anthony Violi]

Yes Ausmammal, thats the airmass change and will finally rid us of the humidity. Drizzle will develop in the onshore flow, note also its been dead calm since the rain stopped. But thats a good sign the change of airmass isnt far away.

BTW i like what im seeing for next weekend and maybe before..not from the models themselves but the sat pic. Moisture is still sitting through the middle of the country and doesnt look like it wants to push East. GFS very bullish on the cyclone scenario for Perth which if anything injects another humid airmass into the Westerlies. The moisture over inland QLD is already heading back SW into Sa

Something to keep an eye on..

[stratospear]

An interesting day... Went out to Eppalock and happened to be one of the last allowed to the spillway before they shut the road at about 10:30am. This morning the secondary spillway went over when the main one had about 1.7m flowing over it. An even greater flow is pouring over atm and it appears to be peaking. Madness.
Pic and story in local rag (I'm neither the reporter or the photographer as I only got as far as primary spillway): http://www.bendigoweekly.com.au/?p=16227" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Rochester is in big trouble IMO.

[droughtbreaker]

Well, I would have thought most people are looking towards drier weather now. The excitement of the drought breaking, dams filling and all these huge events has come back down to earth with a thud IMHO. Of course, the weather will do what the weather does regardless but I am hoping for another week at least of warm and dry weather and then just a standard rain band, eg. 10-15mm.

Another 100mm+ event in a week in the current flood affected areas would break this state like it has QLD.