Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Supercellimpact]

AVIATION FORECAST- VICTORIA

OVERVIEW:
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF YLAO/YFLI, GRADUALLY EXTENDING
THROUGHOUT AFTER 11Z. DRIZZLE PATCHES DEVELOPING SE OF
FLIKI/YLTV/YBOM AFTER 06Z. AREAS OF LOW CLOUD SE SEA/COAST AND WITH
DRIZZLE, EXTENDING TO ON/S OF DIVIDE AFTER 09Z.

CLOUD:
ISOL CB 6000/30000 AS PER TS IN OVERVIEW.
BKN ST 0800/3000 AS PER LOW CLOUD IN OVERVIEW, BASES LOWERING TO
500FT AFTER 11Z.
AREAS BKN CU/SC 3000/8000 ON/S RANGES.
SCT CU 6000/12000 LAND, TENDING BKN WITH BASE 4000 IN SHRA WITH ISOL
TCU TOPS TO 20000.
AREAS OF BKN AC/AS ABOVE 10000 NE OF YNRC/YKII.
ISIBILITY:
3000M TSRA/DZ, 5000M SHRA.

FREEZING LEVEL:
13000

ICING:
SEV IN CB/TCU.
MOD AC/AS ABOVE FZL.

TURBULENCE:
SEV IN CB/TCU.
MOD CU/AC. MOD LEE OF RANGES BELOW 7000FT.
MOD IN THERMALS BELOW 8000FT LAND TILL 09Z.

[Rhino]

Looks like I started something with this aviation thing, good to see. A few diversions around Wagga too.

Rhino.

[Supercellimpact]

Looks like I started something with this aviation thing, good to see. A few diversions around Wagga too.

Rhino.

It's a brilliant site, i like how you can see the speed and altitude and flight path.

[Rhino]

Looks like I started something with this aviation thing, good to see. A few diversions around Wagga too.

Rhino.

It's a brilliant site, i like how you can see the speed and altitude and flight path.

You wait till you can watch them go over your house at the same time you see them on radar, oohh baby!!

Might be getting a little carried away now.

Rhino.

[Supercellimpact]

yeah ill have to wait and see

WHOA at this

[Dc449]

Their goes the twenty/20 on friday.

[droughtbreaker]

Looks like I started something with this aviation thing, good to see. A few diversions around Wagga too.

Rhino.

It's a brilliant site, i like how you can see the speed and altitude and flight path.

You wait till you can watch them go over your house at the same time you see them on radar, oohh baby!!

Might be getting a little carried away now.

Rhino.

We get stacks of planes in our area as we are directly under a major flight path and only 40km from Tullamarine. Sometimes we have a succession of planes flying overhead here, and often they are at low altitude and the house shakes. I also notice planes taking weird routes when there are storms in the area, sometimes heading east instead of the usual NW. I also find many planes flying straight through storms as well.

An area of showers that weakened out is reforming as it heads towards here which is a good sign.

[droughtbreaker]

yeah ill have to wait and see

WHOA at this

I am pretty confident that GFS is over doing the rainfall totals based purely on potential. With so much moisture around for the next week or so there is massive potential for heavy rainfall, but GFS has a habit of losing the plot in these circumstances.

EC has been firm on 50-100mm for the last few days whilst GFS is trying to give some areas 300mm+ and a widespread 100-250mm. It's just not going to happen.

[occluded]

Well back from a week away on the South Coast of NSW where nuffin much happened weather wise.

Just hopped online to check the forecast models and holy moly...

Was quite unlucky I think to miss the weather so far in the NE as we left Albury this morning to drive back to Melbourne.

Didn't really have any Internet access but I got a STW on the pager early this morning so was hoping for some decent storm action on the way back - alas was not to be.

It was quite humid with an easterly breeze in Albury this morning, with plenty of mid-level cloud and the odd Cb, but considering I've been watching threatening cloud in Batemans Bay for the best part of four days I wasn't expecting much!

Had some drizzle around Euroa and by the time we got past Seymour the road was wet but whatever had been through was all over.

Next time might need to convince the family to leave a little later in the day

Looking forward to this week - looks like we came back at the right time (on call this week too!)

[Anthony Violi]

Very humid air ahead of the trough just moving into Vic ans Southern NSW right now, DPs of high teens to 20 from Deniliquin through to Tamworth. So the next 2 days should see good solid falls in the NE flow, most of Northern and NE Vic should easily get 50mm next 2 days, a little less here is more likely.

Rain band closing in fairly quickly from the NE so should be raining by morning..

[Didjman]

sporadic loud static on radio now - against a background of distant static sounding like a bbq. ("Barby radio" as I call it!)
Peter

[DarkEye]

Will my end see much rain or not?

[flatcam]

The cell near Benalla appears to have weakened substantially.

I guess now we have to wait for the line of thunderstorms behind the Benalla cell in SE NSW.

Cheers, Cam

[Rhino]

Well EC certainly upgrading tonight, 153mm for the week forecast here and I'm sure there will be alot of places in the same boat, which is what we may need. Never seen EC with such falls for here.

Rhino.

[schitzengiggles]

I guess now we have to wait for the line of thunderstorms behind the Benalla cell in SE NSW.

Whatever flattened it out will most likely flatten out the line behind it too. Your best bet tonight is something forming on the outflow.

[Didjman]

the cell Sw of Benalla isnt dead yet!! checkout: http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.ht ... art=&stop=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Peter

[eddie]

Nice and quiet here today, dull and cool after an unexpected 8mm last night from a very heavy shower

[schitzengiggles]

It's knackered Peter. Check out the one NE of it.

[Didjman]

It's knackered Peter. Check out the one NE of it.

Yeah, saw those Ryan!! Hope they make the journey. Going by the Bom MSL, they r on the trough line - which is obviously retrograding!
We might be woken up again later tonite. Close radio static has diminished somewhat.
Peter

[flatcam]

It's knackered Peter. Check out the one NE of it.

Bit of a shame that that cell died. Hoping the line of cells near the border (NE) will last and make it past Broadford, probably won't though as Schitzengiggles said.
Couldn't see the structure on the previous cell due to an annoying blanket of cloud over melbourne.

Cheers, Cam