Victoria: Low Pressure System Cup Weekend 2010

[ShaneEEEE]

I am somewhat confused. I have been looking at the convective outlook every day since I got back in Vic, and there seems to be an inconsistency in the forecasting of convective activity.

Look at this outlook for tomorrow: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/httpdata_ ... 40x480.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Does anyone else here think that that is a little wrong?

[Blackee]

Odd indeed Shane!
I'd be sticking with BSCH stormcast at the moment.

FYI, a Flood Watch for NSW has been issued, which affects the Murray River below the Hume Dam. Chance of moderate flooding.

[daviescr]

I agree Shane, looks completely out to me - but I'm no expert. I think there is a whole pool of instability over NSW that has been omitted

Here's the LI forecast for Friday at 4pm:
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/stormcast. ... #stormcast

Although I guess it depends on what time the forecast is for on WZ.

[Petros]

Our local BOM met office advised that the low will move S'ly down from Mildura Saturday and head into Bass Straight leaving this region tallying as little as 20mm for the event to Monday.

I reckon they are going by EC. I will be keen to see this arvo's run to see if the models can finally agree a little more.

[edit] - our Lake Glenmaggie is sitting at 100.1% full this morning, so Southern Rural Water are'nt panicking! Did I hear that they are letting water out of Lake Hume ahead of this event?

[daviescr]

Not seen a four-day forecast rainfall map like this for quite a while:

[Supercellimpact]

Behind the main rainband have a look at Access on BOM and go to 5am to 11 am for Sunday is that a front or what.. See it coming from north western Vic .. Or is a wrapping around from the low??

[Gordon]

Did I hear that they are letting water out of Lake Hume ahead of this event?

Yes Petros - well, in anticipation of any event really: see the latest report - http://www.mdba.gov.au/files/weeklyrepo ... r-2010.pdf

Sniper I noticed that NSW floodwatch also foreshadows floodwatches for NE Victoria.

[Karl Lijnders]

Not quite sure of ACCESS 3 Day with a dissolved low not really developing into something significant but carrying a lot of water across the state but giving the W only 30mm and C areas about 50-70mm and the NE about 50-100mm up until Sunday AM.

I think that will change.

Satellite looking positive with the cold air starting to show itself SW of WA.

[Onetahuti]

Did I hear that they are letting water out of Lake Hume ahead of this event?

Yes Petros - well, in anticipation of any event really: see the latest report - http://www.mdba.gov.au/files/weeklyrepo ... r-2010.pdf

Sniper I noticed that NSW floodwatch also foreshadows floodwatches for NE Victoria.

To add a bit more to that link the storage level of the various dams along the entire system is available here .. http://www.mdba.gov.au/files/waterstora ... r2010.pdf" .. will be interesting to see the increases after the runoff from this rain event.

Thanks guys for all the effort you put in, much appreciated from a realative novice in weather forecasting.

[Twister]

Current obs atm have me a little worried, well maybe more so interested in how it will be so good when atm dont look great at all.

E Aus is still quite dry, Dps in NSW still around the 3-7c mark with DPs above 10c not till you get to the QLD coast north of Brisbane and a few higher ones further N and a few in N QLD as well but apart from that its Dry, SA also has low Dps

Jet seems to still be moving NE with much of the cloud in SA and NSW heading NE as the jet is still moving around the big high to our SE

The NW mid level in feed seems to have been cut off and most mid and upper winds still seem to be more from the S SW SE than N NE E and dont look like changing till late tonight and then in another 36 hours much of SE Aus will be back in SW flow so quite a few factors to over come i feel.

But it looks like everything quickly goes N NE tonight and it will get quite windy tomorrow morning, also that field of cold air is quite expansive covering much of the ocean S of WA and SA this should move more NE in coming 36 hours.
Also models are expecting an explosion of showers and Thunderstorms in SA tonight and into tomorrow morning forming a rain band and this will only increase throughout tomorrow night and into Saturday morning.

Really interested in watching this unfold as looking a sat data and Obs looks like weak summer change with cool few days following going to be great watching it change.

Most models now have a Low forming some were in N NW Vic and moving SE till its off the SE coast on Sunday.
AC seems to be the only model holding it back in W Vic if this were to come off would be very interesting for much of the state re higher falls.

If you are on or just North of the hills watch out for some big 50-80mm falls, SW and NE also looking like they could do well this week with some big falls.

Cant really see much chance of storms tomorrow as upper air looks quite warm and Dps look only to get to the 7-9c range at best also increasing high cloud and lagging front chance storms look quite low to me.

Only about 30 hours from it entering Vic region looking forward to this event exploding over coming 36 hours can it do it lol

[Gordon]

Just seen the latest BOM 4 day chart. Blimey! If that comes off we (west of Melbourne) will be smashed, not to mention other areas.

[Karl Lijnders]

Looks fine to me at the moment. Things going to plan quite nicely and there is widespread convection in the S parts of QLD and NSW today and that will be drawn southwest as we go into a deeper NE flow.

Convection developing in that NE flow today is a good indicator.

Gordon you are not wrong. I think 100mm for the western ranges, Melbourne and NE VIC looks good on the charts presented.

[johnno]

Latest 00z UKMET has the centre of the low between Stawell & Charlton Saturday night so it has adjusted it more East.. This morning it had it over the Western District for Saturday night be interesting what the other models spit out

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?M ... sl&C2=pmsl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Karl Lijnders]

Nice setup there in the UK scenario.

We should see a fairly substantial rainband develop on the eastern and northern side of the low then a secondary band develop through Saturday afternoon and whack C areas Saturday night into Sunday morning as the low tracks SSW.

Keep an eye on the follow up pool of cold air which is also a fairly decent producer as well.

[stevco123]

Looks very interesting. However,i don't want to spoil the party but I have a feeling the low will track right over melbourne, meaning that we may not get more than about 20-30mm for saturday, and another 15ish during sunday.the setup is just not there for melbourne to get hammered.although 30mm will be great.
But I'm really really really hoping I'm wrong

[Soxy]

G'Day Guy's
Long time Browser first time blogger, just wondering if anyone can fill me in on what you would think is going to fall in Lake Eildon catchment area.
Regards
Sox

[Twister]

WOW at BOM 4 day, low right over central areas for almost 24 hours will mean big falls for the NE and SW with wrap around.
Here we go again, another huge event last 12 years we were lucky to get one a year like this, last 3 months have had about 4 or so crazy love it

Yes it will happen i am just amazed at how much is going to change in the next 36 hours for this to happen, last few events there was deep moisture just to the north or the cold air was screaming north or the stuff in NT or SA was exploding and heading SE fast etc but this time no real signs of it really.

Looks like a case of just in time moisture as the cold pool moves over causing a rapid development and deepening of the low as the 2 interact with each other at the same time Friday night Saturday morning..

Shame its happening this weekend there is just so many things on across the state, races, party's, town and community events and many more that are going to be cancelled due to this heavy rain event shame really

Good news about this system is that locusts will be delayed another 10 days or so and things will continue to be green and dams and rivers will continue to rise and ground water recharge will also continue.

Storms going up in WA and SA looking good

28/2c with N NE winds the most prefect day wont see weather like this for another 10 days just magic out there

South and Mount folk as well as North facing slopes SW and NE get ready for major falls and flooding

[johnno]

Hi Soxy welcome mate always your always free to have our say mate , I would say 30-50mm at this stage up there but could be more.


Latest 00z GFS disagrees with UK and more inline with 3 day ACCESS though ACCESS has weakened the low out, GFS still places the centre of the low E/SE of us Saturday afternoon/night

GFS 4pm Saturday >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GFS 7pm Saturday >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GFS 10pm Saturday >> http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... =&PERIOD=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


I expect EC to fall right inbetween UK and GFS tonight and have the low tracking near Seymour slowly SSE Saturday


However the gap is starting to narrow between the models



EDIT: The 4 day Bom chart Dean is taken from the 12z morning EC run if you have a look its the exact same mate

[johnno]

Latest 00z GFS has 75-100mm from the Grampians through the Central ranges, Northern half of Melbourne then into NE Victoria with hgher falls up there in the NE ranges but most of the state has 25mm+

[Twister]

Only see the bom 4 day from time to time wasn't sure were it comes from thanks for that will have a look now

Yeah by tomorrow think we will know were this low will from looks like N NW VIC Saturday morning and moving S SE during Saturday and into Sunday.

Bring on the big falls