VIC: Cold outbreak with showers/hail 15-17 October'10

[Blackee]

And down it marches! Not yet lightning active but not far off.
11mm @ Stawell in fairly quick time, these cells approaching Central areas will see totals accumulate fairly quickly.

[Meso]

Woken up by pouring rain, who needs an alarm lol. 9.2mm in the last hour!

Edit: that 9.2 was in 37 mins!

[Blackee]

Nice start Meso!
06z run shows a fair downgrade in falls as I reckon the cold pool has moved more east than N/NE over the past 4-6 hours. North East Vic and Gippy to cop a real drenching. Hoping for 25mm here.

[Meso]

We are going to get a huge dumping over the next few hours by the looks of the radar, back building nicely to the NW of us according to the radar. Hope everyone else cops a drenching too. Reckon the majority of our lot will be between now and sunrise.

why isnt anyone else out of bed? lol

[Blackee]

EC was confident of heavy falls initially (before 6am) before the low bombs and swings the winds SW.

And it aint 3am yet, so all the princesses are asleep (Hi Karl/Rik! )

[Meso]

I wouldn't call the latest GFS a big downgrade, it has contracted the bigger falls more NE, but spread out the more moderate stuff out across the state. Anyway, its at the point where it's here and you just watch it unfold regardless of models. Waiting on the 2:30 obs but I reckon we'd be over half way to what it has for us across the next 48 hours.

[vegemitegirl]

I'm here lurking....I do that a lot since I don't have anything knowledgeable to contribute.....I just watch your conversations and pick out bits i understand......maybe I'll learn something.

hurry up you ****** rain...I want some action.

[vegemitegirl]

lol ok apparently the b word for illegitimate child is considered swearing

[Blackee]

lol ok apparently the b word for illegitimate child is considered swearing

Funny out there, very mild, quite calm whilst the baro drops.
Some good falls from the 0230 update, Horsham up to 20mm

[Meso]

I'm here lurking....I do that a lot since I don't have anything knowledgeable to contribute.....I just watch your conversations and pick out bits i understand......maybe I'll learn something.

hurry up you ****** rain...I want some action.

Dont be afraid to jump in and add your bit, regardless of what you understand. I can guarantee no one here will judge you based on what you do or don't know. In the end we all just get excited by weather, which is probably a bit weird, but oh well

[Meso]

Well, it has calmed down here, I'm gonna go back to bed and see what the morning brings. Suspect there will be a few more online in the next few mins when the 3am alarm goes off. Look fwd to reading all those discussions when i get up. Hopefully this thing delivers for most!

[vegemitegirl]

ahh normal is boring anyway, I'm not so obsessed that I'd turn down a date with brad pitt to watch a storm instead.....not yet hehe

[Blackee]

Getting quite messy at the moment.
Some bands travelling South, whilst others are moving SW as the low starts to get organised.
Perhaps it will form a little more west than forecast.
Just starting to rain here now.

[Lily]

1mm here.

[Twister]

NON stop rain last 6 hours with Heavy rain waking me up around 2am

RAIN RAIN RAIN turning out to be a great system now for the NW

15mm last 6 hours most in the last 3

LOADS more rain to come should finish with 25mm or so which is just great on top of the 13mm 2 days ago

Steady to heavy rain moving in to NE VIC now, and still a few bands of rain in E SA, so loads more to come

HUGE SYSTEM for the State once again looks like Everyone will get big falls thats how it should be

Off to work now sucks oh well

Steady rain falling atm this should go right up to about 9am then it will be cold and windy

[Dc449]

Rain here, nice and heavy with more to come

[Karl Lijnders]

Extensive rainfall at the moment with quite serious rainfall occurring in the NE at the moment and moving into C areas over the coming few hours. Should see falls near 80mm widespread in the NE today and upwards of 50mm scattered elsewhere.

W change is still lagging back along the line of thundery weather fanning east on radar.

Very humid and calm out there with steady rain.

3mm here so far.

[Karl Lijnders]

No lightning really showing up on tracker but there is heavy rain on the way with 20mm in the last hr over at Stawell!!

Some exceptional totals likely.

[AUSSKY]

16mm in Trentham so far.....started about 1.45am

[Karl Lijnders]

Safe drive into work today from up there Jane and Clyve!

34mm at Stawell the highest so far but falls are slowly moving east with the heaviest rain from about Cape Otway, bowing east to west of Geelong, then back NW through to Aarat. Rain in this band is going to intensify as it moves east and with the thermal gradient increasing it could well become thundery during the day.

Melbourne likely to see rainfall ease back to showers from about 3pm. 25-50mm likely across the city.

4mm here and a gentle start.