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Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:33 am
by hillybilly
EC edging cooler for tomorrow. Peaking around 40-43C central and 42-46C in the north. Main thing that looks to have changed is the uppers are a degree or so cooler. Mean winds typically 20-40km/hr, but potential for some nasty gusts (particularly higher parts and in the lee of the ranges). Looks quite unstable so may well get a thundery shower late and low cloud and perhaps a spit of drizzle in the south overnight.
Wind change hits Melbourne about 3pm. It runs along the coast quickly, but take a while to move inland. The trough in the easterlies and the trough in the westerlies again do not match-up which slackens the pressure gradient, but means the change lags back a long way as you move inland.
BTW Melbourne does hold the temperature record, and I believe Avalon's 47.9C from 1939 is the highest in a "metro" area. I tend to think Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney all have the potential get to about the same temperature. Be interesting to see which one gets a 50C first (which is, unfortunately, possible in the next ~40 years). Thankfully that won't be this week
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:49 am
by stevco123
hillybilly wrote: ↑Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:33 am
EC edging cooler for tomorrow. Peaking around 40-43C central and 42-46C in the north. Main thing that looks to have changed is the uppers are a degree or so cooler. Mean winds typically 20-40km/hr, but potential for some nasty gusts (particularly higher parts and in the lee of the ranges). Looks quite unstable so may well get a thundery shower late and low cloud and perhaps a spit of drizzle in the south overnight.
Wind change hits Melbourne about 3pm. It runs along the coast quickly, but take a while to move inland. The trough in the easterlies and the trough in the westerlies again do not match-up which slackens the pressure gradient, but means the change lags back a long way as you move inland.
BTW Melbourne does hold the temperature record, and I believe Avalon's 47.9C from 1939 is the highest in a "metro" area. I tend to think Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney all have the potential get to about the same temperature. Be interesting to see which one gets a 50C first (which is, unfortunately, possible in the next ~40 years). Thankfully that won't be this week
That's a big call (50 for the capital cities). I wish I could prove you wrong in the next 40 years but we might be both 6 feet under and turned to compost by then.
Will be a slow buildup today with the temperature, and the maximum looks like coming in very late about 6 or 7pm. Just remember, the minimum for tomorrow will be whatever the temp will be at 9am this morning (most likely), unless it gets to 29 or 30 by 9am.
Adelaide has a big head start to today's forecast 45, as their minimum was about 31
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:32 am
by JasmineStorm
Not a lot changed on the 18Z Access C & R runs for tomorrow. Same gusty winds, gusting to around 80km/h to 100km/h mid morning centrally, 47c around Mildura, Melbourne northern suburbs 45c, city 44c, here in the low 40's. The change coming through around an hour later than what EC modelled. Also they are picking up a late afternoon temp spike into the 40's for the inner east and northern suburbs as the northerly swings today.
Some interesting observing across the country today
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:55 am
by Adam38
Bom are going for 40c today and 43c Friday here, my google home ( has been very accurate with temps this summer ) is
forecasting 41c today and 45c Friday for B.Marsh.
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:37 am
by Tassiedave
Port Pirie 40.2 before 9 am. Port Augusta close to 40 too.
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:38 am
by StratoBendigo
QldTwister wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:55 pm
Crazy heat and crazy DPs last few weeks weather has been great in Melb almost chilly tonight lol
48 hours it will be all over and back to the 20s and teens in S vic
WHopper burst of heat then whats next ?
Potentially some rain in Central Vic mid-next week which might moderate things somewhat. Doesn't seem to be much in it though.
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:15 am
by wolfcat
And Adelaide hit 40c at 10:40am
The numbers to watch:
Top 10 temps for Adelaide:
1- 46.1C 12 Jan 1939
2- 45.9C 10 Jan 1939
3- 45.7C 28 Jan 2009
4- 45.1C 14 Jan 2014
5- 45.0C 04 Jan 2013
6- 44.7C 02 Feb 2014
7- 44.3C 14 Feb 2004
8- 44.2C 16 Jan 2014
9- 44.2C 13 Jan 1939
10 44.2C 23 Jan 1982
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:28 am
by Tassiedave
Port Augusta 45 at 1045.
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:53 am
by Sean
Tassiedave wrote: ↑Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:28 am
Port Augusta 45 at 1045.
39.5 before midday in Adelaide. RIP the rest of SA's bats
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:58 am
by JasmineStorm
Nice solar radiation surge on Minlaton Airport to hit the lead at 45.7c. I think the sneaky one to watch is Whyalla, winds will swing on the top of the gulf directly from north late in the afternoon.
Amazing widespread feral temps in S.A at this stage, several degrees ahead of model projection at this point. Already 10 AWS's have gone over 44c (4 over 45c) by 11:20am
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:48 pm
by wolfcat
Since it hit 45.3c at 12:09pm at Edinburgh, there is a pub offering FREE as in FREE Beer.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/thesourc ... 58a15a758f
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:24 pm
by Thylacinus
JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:58 am
Nice solar radiation surge on Minlaton Airport to hit the lead at 45.7c. I think the sneaky one to watch is Whyalla, winds will swing on the top of the gulf directly from north late in the afternoon.
Amazing widespread feral temps in S.A at this stage, several degrees ahead of model projection at this point. Already 10 AWS's have gone over 44c (4 over 45c) by 11:20am
First post. I agree regarding Whyalla, where a north westerly won't affect their heat. Also Wudinna and Tarcoola. Adelaide Airport will stop keeping pace with Adelaide (Kent Town) when either the sea breeze kicks in or the winds swing more north westerly and so coming off the water, which the Airport is closer to. Barring cloud cover I expect Adelaide to set a new record today as her max may only be later this arvo.
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:56 pm
by Adam38
SA temp records are falling all over the place!! To me it looks like the change has slowed down a little??
Ceduna surpassed the forecast max of 46c and has hit 47.6c and the winds are still NW.
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:17 pm
by stevco123
South-west coast of VIC will be cooler tomorrow as the change goes through early, but geez are they paying the price today for it. 42.7 in Warrnambool so far
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:21 pm
by Sean
Well, Adelaide has hit 46, a whole degree above the forecast of 45. Pretty sure everyone saw that coming
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:27 pm
by Thylacinus
Sean wrote: ↑Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:21 pm
Well, Adelaide has hit 46, a whole degree above the forecast of 45. Pretty sure everyone saw that coming
New record! 46.2 at West Tce and 46.4 at Kent town (Adelaide) Only a matter of how high now!
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:34 pm
by Macedonian
It is exactly the same temp as Melbourne on Mt William at the mo, even tho its 1200m asl.
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:43 pm
by wolfcat
First 40 for Metro Melbourne goes to Essendon with 40.4 at 2:38pm
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:44 pm
by Didjman
Currently 38c at home in Wallan
Re: More heat and possible records: January 19-27
Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:46 pm
by StratoBendigo
Edinburgh in Adelaide is nudging 48c (47.4c so far).