Vic: Hotter with a late change, November 16 to 21 2016

[Gordon]

5mm to 9am here, and although the 'proper' rain cleared hours ago, persistent drizzle (not showing on radar) looks like it may add another mm or two.

Bloody cold - still only 9 C at 11am; I've given in and lit the fire! Hard to believe it hit 30 C here yesterday - our first 30 for spring.

[Sean]

Got a sprinkle. Yawn inducing.


For the outer southeast suburbs of Melbourne, this has to be the most infuriating year of weather I've ever experienced. Skirted by every system that didn't fail, missed out on basically every storm. Have totally relied on pittance when it comes to rain and now November is shaping up to be very dry. At least when it came to the early 2000s drought you knew what to expect. This, however, is just annoying.

I don't know what summer will bring, but I think it's going to be the most unpredictable summer of all time. Prepare for raging fires and historic flooding.

[StratoBendigo]

Got a sprinkle. Yawn inducing.


For the outer southeast suburbs of Melbourne, this has to be the most infuriating year of weather I've ever experienced. Skirted by every system that didn't fail, missed out on basically every storm. Have totally relied on pittance when it comes to rain and now November is shaping up to be very dry. At least when it came to the early 2000s drought you knew what to expect. This, however, is just annoying.

I don't know what summer will bring, but I think it's going to be the most unpredictable summer of all time. Prepare for raging fires and historic flooding.

We managed just 5mm. Quite a bit less than was predicted yesterday. But not a bad result given that crop stripping is now getting into full swing.

I reckon summer 2016/17 will be all over the shop. Probably a bit like 2003/4 with heaps of variation and contrast between hot and cold.

[JasmineStorm]

That upper trough is throwing a couple of soft late punches up here. 11 mm for the thread now..... and still a little more coming from the NW.

Off topic : Interesting how many 6+ earthquakes are occurring on the Pacific ring of fire at the moment. 9 since November 12th. In 2011, 7 occurred between March 1st and March 10th on the ring of fire and on March 11th, Japan had a 9.1 quake. Japan Meteorological Agency would be quite apprehensive after this morning small tsunami and 7.4 quake.

[hillybilly]

Just snuck up to 20mm for this event taken a long time to get there

Was thinking 20 to 30mm for this event so we are now a pass very welcome after that heat.

Should shower on and off next 36 hours so might yet make it up to 30mm.

Temperature today has been basically half that of yesterday (in Celsius).

[Geoff]

17mm here up to 5pm, just what we needed.
Encouraging to see lots more showers and storms over southern SA still moving into Victoria, could be a fair bit more to come for us.
BOM forecast for the next 7 days looks more like September than November for here.

[hillybilly]

Both GFS and ACCESS now bringing down another rain band for overnight into tomorrow. Heavier falls out east, while central Vic sits between zero and a fair amount. There's a decent little upper low to our southwest which is moving up now, and will form a weak low in eastern Bass Strait. Should be quite a lot of showers in the swly part of the low.

[WeatherViewer]

Looking ahead temperatures looking pretty toasty mid next week onward.

[Jake Smethurst]

Looks interesting Hilly, wonder if we can get it to move slightly closer to us here ... who knows with the models chopping and changing so frequently.

BoM have issued a SWW for the rain:

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the
East Gippsland,
North East and
West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:38 pm Tuesday, 22 November 2016.

WEATHER SITUATION:
A low pressure trough that extends from New South Wales into northeast Victoria will progress very slowly eastward overnight before clearing into the Tasman Sea during Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible through parts of the North East and Gippsland districts. Rainfall is expected to increase in intensity overnight and through Wednesday morning before clearing east in the afternoon with scattered showers to follow.

24 hour totals of in excess of 50-70mm are possible, with 3 hourly totals possibly exceeding 30mm.

Locations which may be affected include Corryong, Bright, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham, Mt Buller and Omeo.

[typhoon29]

didn't get much here at all with this system seem to miss us completely, little bit of rain ~3mm plenty of wind at 4:30 yesterday. pretty benign outlook more spring/autumn feel maybe that was our summer.

[JasmineStorm]

Still ticking over up here. 15 mm now and more juice getting squeezed down from the NW.

[StratoBendigo]

Just when I thought it was all over (after 8mm) - Hello heavy rain at 11pm! Yellow on radar here too....

[Blackie]

Nice totals starting to appear in the NE. 52mm at Mt Wombat so far and several 20-30mm falls including 20 mm at Mansfield in the last 2 hours. Rain band not weakening so could be quite a bit more over the next several hours.

[stevco123]

Nice rainband developing over the metro area.

Quite heavy rain at the moment here.

[hillybilly]

Funny system this one. It's gone from looking good to fizzing to looking good then delivering

Just passed 28mm in FC and headed for 30mm. MTD nearly 80mm so a pretty good chance to reach average now.

Great seeing the falls out east. Will reset a lot of the dryness indices and put the fire season start back. Miss out west, by that was always expected and pretty typical this time of year.

More showers this arvo as the upper trough goes through.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Nice to hear those totals at Mansfield Blackie.
Mt Buller saying 41mm with 7.4 yesterday.
Woken again this am to drizzle and down pipes still dripping.
Full tanks and garden watered well, loving this rain..

[Macedonian]

Heavy rain in Lakes Entrance last night. It doesnt seem to be accurately recorded on the clickable map.
good for this area because it looks quite brown and dry east of around Sale.
Im crossing the alpine rd to Bright today.
yr.no has snow forecast for Mt Hotham

[JasmineStorm]

16mm for the thread, 47mm for the month and 996mm for the year.

I can't see too much more up here for the thread today. Looks showery in Melbourne for later this morning. That is one big fat boring High moving in for the next thread.

[Hawker]

14.5mm for the last 36 hrs, added to last weeks 28, we must be past average.
Will keep it greener for longer now

[Dane]

6mm' s in the 24 hours to 9am here, event total now 17.6mm's.
MTD is 35.7mm's (still less than half the monthly average)
YTD is 774mm's almost the yearly average now which is 778mm's.
Hopefully some more showers later today and I may reach the Yearly average.