Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

[Onetahuti]

42mm so far. Very pleased.

Managed to upload a short clip to youtube of that roll cloud moving in before dumping that rain yesterday.

I'll try to upload the pic soon too.

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Interesting contrast over a short distance, you had 42 mm as mentioned, I had 37 mm just along the road from you while the Melbourne Water site on the creek near Police Road had 49 mm to 9 AM

[mad*moo73]

Big black cloud pics from my drive home from work last night travelling down Nepean Hwy(Moorrabin/Cheltenham).

[stevco123]

And for those who don't know the area OneTahuti is referring to, these distances are about 1km from each other or less.

Interstingly i had to drive to berwick last night and past fountain gate it was "dry".

Bit of a side note, how come i keep getting an error saying image cannot be uploaded. I tried shrinking it but still no deal.

Can Anyone help? How small does the image have to be?

[Macedonian]

Gordon is it still green at your place? It's green here on the mountain but dry either side. It's brown and horrible down at Macedon. Thankfully the rain and lack of heat has kept it looking nice in my garden this year. Lots of good growth.
29mm after a bit more this morning.

[droughtbreaker]

27.6mm here. Extremely humid today which is to be expected immediately after heavy rain in an already very moist air mass.

It's worth noting that there are clear skies here now and the atmospheric conditions are still significanty unstable according to GFS. We remain at risk of storms this afternoon and if they develop there could be even heavier falls than yesterday given the moisture laden environment.

It's been a bit of a strange summer. Rainfall is currently tracking very close to average (with half of Feb remaining), January temperatures have been almost right on average, although December was well above average.

Despite decent rainfall overall and a lack of really hot temps or prolonged heatwaves of any significance, it really has dried out in recent weeks around the Macedon Ranges, to the point that some deciduous trees have dropped leaves already. There are still pockets of green around though which is in contrast to this time last year when literally every blade of grass was dead and desiccated, and the forests have remained very healthy this year and haven't dried out at all

The culprit for this sudden drying was that massive high that parked over us and left us mostly free of precipitation for about 4 weeks. Most of this period was actually anomalously cool, so I put the drying effect down to prolonged dry and windy weather and lower humidity with the cooler temps.

The point to remember though is that all this drying has been in the top layers of the soil and at deeper layers the soil is still reasonably moist (140mm from start of December to early Feb has sunk deeper in to the soil). Today all the garden plants and trees are green and lush again after looking wilted and under stress only about 18 hrs ago. The grass around the place is looking greener already and I expect it to start growing back in coming days.

[Rhino]

19mm here all up, happy with that considering it is around twice what the models had forecast, but now the with this warmth the grass is going to go gangbusters so a mowing I will go..
Also brings me up to just over 80mm for the last 4 weeks and perfect timing regarding fire risk.

Rhino.

[Didjman]

I was wondering about storm potential this arvo.I also saw that shelf cloud crossing the bay from up here - through the rain. Took some pics of it.
Peter

[James]

Well, about 6.30 last night when the storm approached, there were about 3 very close bolts - one was so close lightning and thunder were instant...and it fizzed, with a shockwave that was very strange.

I had the camera out the window at the time and was able to slow it down, the actual bolt looked to have landed right at the shopping centre or perhaps the train crossing, but i suspect it was one of those multi bolts of which a few prob hit either my house or neighbours but no damage...

Was some really weird pink and orange lightning in it as well, that rather than flashing just dimmed up and then down....havent seen it like that before!

Would like some sun now, the garden is happy with the rain, now some sunlight for it to grow!

[Rivergirl]

steveco just send it to me - rolake at ozemail dot com dot au Nice pics guys

[stevco123]

steveco just send it to me - rolake at ozemail dot com dot au Nice pics guys

Thanks for that. I've sent it. It might be slow from my phone but you should get it within 15 mins

[Supercellimpact]

Event total in Bendigo- 3mm, the heavy falls always seemed to stay north or south of us.

[stevco123]

i don't think we'll get anything today, and if we do it will be very isolated and 'lucky'.

I still can't see 36 for tomorrow either, nor any storms.

[Rivergirl]

Here is the pic by steveco, looks great

[Gordon]

Gordon is it still green at your place? It's green here on the mountain but dry either side. It's brown and horrible down at Macedon. Thankfully the rain and lack of heat has kept it looking nice in my garden this year. Lots of good growth.
29mm after a bit more this morning.

Still green Macedonian. We were a hot day or two away from losing that with the grass beginning to wilt, but back to bright green again. All summer It's been a case of rain just in time.

Great pic Steveco!

[hillybilly]

47.9mm for the event (though more humid days to come so might add some more). Lots of washouts around the hills as happens with decent falls.

MTD is a healthy 50mm... Though our average is about 70mm so not quite there yet. Hopefully that's the end of our fire season here... Would be pretty unusual to dry out again from here for us. Tanks full again... Well they were until the five year old turned on one of the taps

Gordon is it still green at your place? It's green here on the mountain but dry either side. It's brown and horrible down at Macedon. Thankfully the rain and lack of heat has kept it looking nice in my garden this year. Lots of good growth.
29mm after a bit more this morning.

We have nearly browned off here twice... Couple of hots days away but the big fall in mid January and this one came just in time. Not browning makes a big difference... Our grass has turned brilliant green again.

EDIT: looking across the progs this humid weather goes on for days. No real change to flush the warm humid air away. Suspect uppers to hot tomorrow and the chance is pretty late so not that good for showers/storms. Better from around. I'd week with both EC and GFS showing showers and storms. Expecting lots of hill fog with this sequence here.

[hillybilly]

Foggy and humid night up here... Loving this humid weather

Not seeing much today. Hot uppers cap convection, while more easterly flow takes the edge of temperatures at the surface except out west which will be HOT. Scorching temperatures west of Vic yesterday. Low to mid 40s for most spots west of Adelaide stretching all the way back to the WA wheat belt. A couple of 47C in the mix. Just escaped a scorcher thanks to that little low..

[James]

somethings brewing in the wimmera/malle and also western district..radar images seem to be old on the vic view, but when you look closer, you can see them forming...interesting

[Jake Smethurst]

There's a black cored storm near Colac. It definitely contains destructive winds. Waiting on reports from people around that way. Missed my parents area.

[Gordon]

Very powerful-looking storm shooting up just to our west - looks in line to hit us.

[typhoon29]

a mini thunderstorm has just surprised us here no real rain very high base noisy little trucker! BoM must have missed this one they updated their 5pm forecast to 6pm showers and thunderstorms!