Vic - Potential showers/storms - 21st Dec to Boxing Day 2011

[AUS_Twisted]

Can see those towers a fair way out west now

[Anthony Violi]

Huge tower just exploding Nw of here, probably near Yan Yean, has pileus and is surging skyward. Unbeleivable lift..

[nafets]

Convection shooting up here, especially due north! Last time i checked (not long ago ) it was clear!!!

[nafets]

First cell around Lal lal,

[Anthony Violi]

And we are away...now we need to get them to develop overhead or close by..

[nafets]

yeah, how long will it take to reach melbourne? it looks like a while!

[greensyboy]

OK, heading out in about 20 mins. This looks something so close and worthwhile chasing!

Latest BOM Observation for Viewbank (closest to me) is 30.5/21 which is huge! Plugged that into the sounding of BSCH website, gives 5000J/kg & -11C LI. Seems pretty big, couldn't imagine it would be anything like that but as was mentioned previously it's looking pretty amazing from my front verandah.

Looking forward to getting some great shots this arvo - anyone give some advice on what the chance of large hail under one of these cells is? Won't be in my car, so probably have to play it a little safer than I would like!

Have fun all,


Nate

[AUS_Twisted]

As far as hail goes I'd be checking radar every so often and avoid any black cores if theres any or get under cover, shouldn't be to hard to avoid as they are slow moving

[johnno]

The storms are moving West to East over the Central ranges (which will make it even harder for most of Melbourne to get something Today so if you want to see something go for a drive) and WSW to ENE over the Gippsland ranges. Tomorrow Anthony they will move in more from a WNW/NW to SE/ESE direction.

[johnno]

Stefan you and I will get nothing Today sorry to dissapoint you mate but if you want to see a storm take a drive or get on a Train 20ks North

[James]

whats the chances of anything out this way today? - I dont have a car to travel

[Anthony Violi]

They are fighting hard to push against the seabreeze, even though they are hugging the ranges on the radar the convection line is pushing against its resistance and edging south. If it gets through it could drag the Northerly with it and open the door for us. To the East, cell developing everywhere with some amazing shots of atomic structure with pileus.

[oz1235]

First cell around Lal lal,

Second one slowly building south of Gisbourne.



Bring it on.

[Anthony Violi]

Good shot at it out here Johnno, like you say will be touch and go for you guys, but i think the line from Viewbank to Scoresby to Pakenham is still in with a good shot, big convection going up over Knox right now. If you look at the charts the seabreeze does a right hander from the airport and heads SE to Coldstream, and then funnels out Se to Pakenham. So some bizzare stuff going on. All clear to the south yet some good Accas developing to the sw.

Still 32/17 here. And towers all around us.

[johnno]

Yep I agree your way is in with a fair chance and the areas you mentioned

[weathergasm]

Yeah that seabreeze is a doozy looking at the doppler. Extending well north of the metropolitan area too.
Goes to show that sometimes there can be too much clear air and surface heating as well!

[oz1235]

Hi

Due North West of Here in Pakenham is a tower in the distance possibly from the noojee cluster.

[johnno]

Yes Thomson dam should cop it

[occluded]

Just hung out the washing and it's like a South American jungle out there, all it's missing is a few toucans.

Some tower action going to the north of here.

Saw the results of some odd weather phenomena yesterday in Doncaster too:



Resident reported a large gust of wind which blew about ten tiles off her roof - other properties in the same street untouched and weather was otherwise fine?!?!

[Anthony Violi]

The cells at Noojee are some of the biggest towers ive seen for a long time..tremendous falls from those coming up.

Seabreeze has pushed well inland but the funny thing it is it then heads East out over the Yarra Valley then back Se again..which means it could go off later through the outer suburbs once it slackens off..