The Australian Weather Forum

So far for us- 0mm of rainfall and 24/10 temps. We'd better get rain tonight or it looks like 4/5 below average rainfall months here.

I have noticed four separate little bands break up 1 frame before they get here. Disappointing

Intense activity early this morning up here in the NW. I could see it heading our way before midnight but it was still a good 150km away then. Massive thunderstorm, went on for hours and pelted down. Officially 59mm at the BOM, our rain gauge has 72, neighbours have similar. Think we may be in trouble if we get any more as there is quite significant flooding in some places.

Just updated all the AWF forecasts, including audio briefing, check them out here: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/main.html.

Thats a lot of rainfall already norwester, I think there is definitely more to come though.

From the BoM:

Flood Watch for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins

Issued at 10:34 am EDT on Sunday 18 December 2011

A low pressure system to the south of Adelaide will move further south on Monday. An associated trough will enter western Victoria later on Sunday before moving across eastern Victoria on Monday morning. Areas of rain, locally heavy and isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the north west region for the remainder of Sunday.
Further rainfall totals of up to 30mm with isolated higher totals as a result of Thunderstorm activity are possible for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca or Wimmera Basins during Sunday.
The forecast rainfall combined with the current catchment conditions in response to recent rainfall may lead to areas of minor flooding developing during Monday.
The Bureau is monitoring the situation and will issue catchment specific warnings if and when required.

I said this last Sunday 11th Dec on Page 1...

"Models keeping the low more West and South Tonight which in my opinon would give less rain to Victoria and in particular Melbourne.. but plenty of time to go between now and Friday"

NW has done well but most other places so far its been an average system and plenty of other places have barely seen a drop yet including Melbourne. I still think our best chance is Tonight on the windchange

Just as long as the rain gets to the right place.

Was expecting a Fizzlah in Melbourne because it has been that way for nearly 18 months, with a rare one getting though.

Can't remember a really good one since March 2010.

Even though, there was one in 2,9 December 2010 and 28 September. Nothing like 31 December 2009, 1 January 2010.

It just flattens into rain. It rains like it should it June/July.

One of these years it will go back to being Summer again. Summer like it was in the 80s.

My senses are feeling that between 7-10pm we will get a downsized storm, small and lean.

Feb 4 wasn't too bad! Also had a heap of smaller storms in November. We will never have an endless stream of severe storms in Melbourne. There is bound to be one stand out event this summer, in between other good events. I think the records would confirm that Melbourne has never or very rarely had a summer where severe storms consistently hit the CBD and metro areas...

We've had sporadic rain showers on and off this morning, 8mm so far. But the main cloud mass has slipped across to our North, so not sure what this evening will deliver, if at all. Maybe 5mm, or 50mm if there's some decent convection...

Exactly ILS. If you want a (somewhat) endless supply of storms over summer, move to QLD. The ingredients just don't come together often enough in Victoria, let alone that one little blip on the map called Melbourne. To expect storms to consistently pound what is a relatively small area is setting yourself up for disappointment.

If you really want a storm fix you need to either move as I said before or at least get in the car and go for a drive when their is storms in other parts of the state.

On topic...hoping for a bit more clearance in the west, should explode with a bit of heating.

Yeah Fishman we get your point..everyone knows your unhappy, no need to post it everytime. Darwin has storms everyday, move there.

Good call Johnno, well picked. Melb certainly wont see the best of the rain, just the way its going to turn out.

Definitely will erupt throught the Nw this arvo, will be more flooding about. Catchments should also get a top up through the Northern slopes tomorrow morning.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND and FLASH FLOODING

For people in the
South West and parts of the
Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 11:16 am Sunday, 18 December 2011.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Horsham, Stawell, Hamilton, Warrnambool, Portland and Ararat.

Dewpoints are extreme atm...Mildura is on 24/21, as is a lot of the NW, and further North Moomba in SA is 33/21, which is extraordinary for them.

Flash flooding is going to be a huge concern today, disappointed in EC which hasnt really gone for much with this system, given the extreme DPs thundery rain was always going to deliver 25-50mm for much of the state.

Storms should start to erupt in the NW once the clearance allows temps to climb.

BTW that rain moving into the northern country will also provide big totals this afternoon ahead of even more rain overnight.

Give it 3 hours and the radar will look great in the west and northern areas I think . Starting to get some clearance here and heavy rain was always forecast to come in later anyway, not over yet guys.

Rhino.

If you look at the 18 hour radar loop on WZ, those storms in S NSW are remains of the SA storms from yesterday so they have just about been going for 24 hours!

Warm night here, 18.5 min, but now the wind has picked up. Full cloud cover and the temp is slowly dropping slowly.
Will see what the front brings.

Definately looks like a western Victoria event, has been spitting here on and off all morning for a total of 0.2mm's. Will be happy with anything over 5mm's now for my area, not expecting any thunder here today or tomorrow, next system later next week into next weekend does not look that great as well at this stage. Still on 988m's for the year hope I get to 1000mm's last year I got 1028mm's.

Just started raining up here again - thankfully just light showers ATM but looks threatening.( Having just spent several hours helping to rescue valuable artworks from the vault at Mildura Arts Centre and mopping up several inches of water we could do with a break.) Some of the flooding up here is worse in places than February.

Not good Norwester


http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV65756.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Mallee, South West, Wimmera and parts of the Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.
Issued at 1:45 pm Sunday, 18 December 2011.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Stawell, Hamilton, Warrnambool and Portland.

Here we go, the west is starting to light up! Just gotta do a couple of things then I'll head out for a look.

Well there isn't much surface heating going on here atm. Overcast, breezy, and 20degC.

Temps are all over the shop to our Northwest though - 23 in Charlton, 29 in Mildura, 23 in Swan Hill, 19 in Hopetoun... after a 19mm deluge!