Victoria: Rain/Storm event: 29th Nov - 5th Dec (Obs)

[Tempest]

Convection starting to build up nicely to my NW N NE and E all moving in a NE direction. Started coming up from the SW but passed over and clear over that way now.

Edit: I'm in Ashwood ATM.

[Rhino]

Wimmera starting to fire, can see big convection to my W-NW, and my god it's sticky and not a good day to be assembling an outdoor setting. Might take the little bloke on a small chase later if things look sweet, cutoff time will be 4pm, after that it's beer o'clock.

Rhino.

[HarleyB]

Absolutely massive tower to the west and I expect it to show up on radar soon, building by the second

[I_Love_Storms]

I expect a line of storms to come in from the west and affect Melbourne around 8pm. Will be heavily lightning active too IMO.

Edit: Convection becoming higher over the eastern ranges. City now 30/18 with a trough over the top of it, ridiculous energy around no matter how warm the mid layers have become. The towers should shoot higher any second now.

[Supercellimpact]

Cell south of swan hill now.

[mick]

The build up has begun here, plenty of convection just nth, should show on radar soon.

[tizza]

a mixture of accas and cirrus here with low level convection, slowly starting to kick off, but I'm concerned that the swirling winds will mess with Melb's (CBD/Inner) chances for now. Hopefully things will change. Just hit 33c in the concrete jungle of Richmond, there's not a breath of wind here. Sweating bullets and have been told to shower

[nafets]

Towers going up here aswell, 32/20!

[I_Love_Storms]

First lightning strike showing up on tracker just west of Horsham.

[Rhino]

Massive convection now to my W-NW, looks incredible.

Rhino.

[Tempest]

I expect a line of storms to come in from the west and affect Melbourne around 8pm. Will be heavily lightning active too IMO.

As soon as my washing dries

[Dane]

Storms now firing in the far east and west of the state. Some good towers going up to the distant north. Currently 30/15 here. Winds gone round to the SW here may be a bit of a sea breeze.

[droughtbreaker]

A lot happening here now, towers overhead etc. Will be very interesting to see what happens when the sea breeze kicks in and how far north any convergence line can make it.

EDIT: Huge tower just to the west of here going 100% vertical. Would almost expect a pileus cap to develop over the top of it, it is that sort of structure.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Holy Reindeer,
its warm out there behind a mower, whipper snipper and a blower.. 31.8 c.

[GregSorenson2]

Currently sitting between mildura and swanny having lunch on my way back to Canberra. 35ºC with dps i'd expect in the mid teens. Bank of Cu, can see the Swanny cell, not too fab, but tighter Culi-form. Will hang out further east, and might duck into Vic for a quick chase if anything catches my eye.

[Meso]

And we're off and running!

Keeping an eye on that stuff near Kerang. Hopefully it makes it way down here.

[James]

will a seabreeze/ convergence line destroy storm chances or enchance them for melb?

[I_Love_Storms]

will a seabreeze/ convergence line destroy storm chances or enchance them for melb?

Convergence lines will certainly enhance chances, if the seabreeze takes over though then convection will be destroyed. Doppler looks okay at the moment though, isn't showing up anything too worrying.

Edit: Big towers going up to my west.

[Jake Smethurst]

Fantastic shower and thunderstorm activity currently over the eastern ranges and western parts of Victoria. I am not so sure on the line you think may occur ILS. Movement of thunderstorms is slow today and motion/steering is variable across the state. Some storms will go north, others SE, some NE, its all over the shop. But you never know. Melbourne is in with a fairly good chance this afternoon ... above 70%.

Convection all to my west and northwest currently. Some okay towers starting to show up.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in the East Gippsland and parts of the Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera s.
Issued at 2:18 pm Saturday, 4 December 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Orbost, Dargo, Buchan, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham, Omeo, Horsham, Stawell, Edenhope, Hamilton, Ararat and Kerang.

There is the risk of severe thunderstorms developing over the remainder of central and eastern Victoria over the next 1 to 2 hours.

[HarleyB]

Bad quality but looking to the WSW