The Australian Weather Forum

Well we need the rain

After the results of 80-100mm for many places and widespread 50mm falls across the state, it is a sign of what is to come from the Indian Ocean. Lots of moisture still tracking across the country and likely to see further heavy thundery rain events this winter and it will most likely remain mild and humid with those conditions.

Another event next week to watch out for - low pressure cutting off possibly over Southern Australia has the potential to draw in moisture from the NW and moist easterly winds on the east coast compounding the moisture advection. Could well see another large slower system mid next week.

Any thoughts......... Bump?......

It's a long way off so I probably shouldn't even be taking any notice, but all I can say is, AccessG -13 -17 September.....CRIKEY!!!

The whole period beyond the 12th of September looks very very very interesting in my opinion. Lots of potential for a couple of cut-off low pressure systems and troughs to interact with tropical moisture. I say it's on!

Not looking too flash at the moment.

The big issue is the lack of moisture. Humidity is down to single figures through much of the continent (inland). The new met meteye is great at seeing this clearly... http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The high pressure systems have been travelling in a NE direction over the QLD coast. This has stopped the onshore winds from pulling the moisture inland. We are effectively cut off from the Pacific moisture with this setup. This in turn leads to clear skies and heat build up. Above the heat lows forms the upper high, compounding the effect. It's the same as what happened over summer last year.

The Indian ocean has gone neutral - even slightly cooler than normal off the WA coast which has cut off that moisture source too.

For SE Australia we have been lucky with the westerlies keeping things ticking along - Tas in particular has been wet. There are signs of more onshore winds along the east coast which will hopefully pull more moisture into Australia. The Indian ocean usually warms rapidly at this time of the year. So if we are lucky (and forever the optimist!) Things could swing back in November/Dec. Note the cold waters off South America too which is good.

Looks relatively unstable from about the 17th or 18th of this month for an extended period. Likely to get rather warm to hot for the period onwards as well.

Keep an eye on the impending MJO or monsoonal burst that is likely to develop around Christmas for northern Austrlaia. At least 3 TCs are possible out of this burst of weather and will likely see widespread rain and thunderstorms across the tropics that will move SE over the east and south of the country.

How much of that can get trapped into the region will remain to be seen but it could be quite a profitable event coming into 2014 after some more hot weather ahead of that moisture, around NYE.

Thought I would give an bit of mouth to mouth for this ol girl! Things are pretty desperate up here now and the forecast looks pretty grim too. A neighbour has basically written off the year and is hoping to get enough to even bother starting the harvester. Frost has wiped out large areas of crop and I suppose the only positive of that is there will be some hay income for those crops. But I reckon hay will be cheap as there will be huge amounts of it around.

So with all that to ponder, when's it gonna rain?

I'm sorry to hear that adon. I certainly hope that the rain picks up for you. You just don't know these days with knowing if there is going to be an El Nino or not

Hopefully conditions can change quickly for you and others, Adon. Unfortunately looking at extended models there is nothing significant on the horizon. Just a period of dominant high pressure systems. Brief system next Tuesday and maybe Friday. In fact the whole country except the NSW coast looks rather dry for the next week. Hopefully patterns change soon!

Well yet another quite useful system that has squirmed its way around us. We ended up with 8mm but as many would be aware large parts of western Vic missed out in a big way. Hopefully there is another system that will finally deliver more widespread totals in western areas.

Well I reckon we might be able to spark this ol girl to life again!

Can we bring this thread back to life!?

It's quite hard to look towards the next significant rain event when there is no rain in any of the models - ACCESS, GFS and EC all show bugger all for the next week or so. A few minor fronts passing by but only bringing dribbles. Looks like an ECL of sorts around Wednesday, but mostly affecting the NSW coastal region. The GFS longer term progs don't look much better either, with only very weak fronts scratching the region, it has most of Victoria less than 2-5mm for the next two weeks. The SOI hasn't been too flash either which could correlate to why we're seeing some of this drier weather now.

I am liking the look of some of the climate models though. Most are suggesting we could be transitioning by the latter part of the year (August/September) into a La Nina, and the IOD could also shift negative around that time which would be an added bonus.

I guess overall no good rainfall on the horizon, but hope in the longer-term. Hopefully an Autumn break arrives soon though, many areas really struggling at the moment.

Still nothing significant in the outlook period that we could term "substantial". Most of the models drag in a weak front Saturday but with just dribbles. Extended and perhaps a late season cyclone in the Coral Sea, but way too far out to see if it will have any affect on things down here in the southeast of the country.

Thanks for resurrecting this one Jake - when it's as uneventful short term as presently, it's probably more interesting to look ahead!

Looking hard for rain in west central and western Vic in general - we are lucky right here to have got enough to maintain a little growth (124 mm ytd) but increasingly desperate for a proper 'run-off' rain event to begin recharging the water table, get streams flowing and refill local lakes.

By the third week of April we might start to see some rain. The MJO pulse should be in a good location and the cold fronts should be starting to have more influence on our "weather".

Given the very warm Tasman Sea at present, I reckon a strong ECL or two might develop when that happens. The transition from ElNino to LaNina/Neutral can often be pretty interesting - I have strong memories of April 1998 which started off very dry and dusty but finished up quite wet, May 2003 with tornadoes etc, and of course 2010 with its hailstorms, floods, and general mayhem.

That's my prognosticating for now....

Aha! I believe this is what we've been waiting for! A long way off and may never materialise, but something to hope for at last!!!
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?l ... 6&focus=mh

Thinking about two weeks and things start to look hopeful. But.. Anything could change between now and then

Front early next week just looking a tad stronger so might sneak a few mm's. Otherwise, just thankful we got a months rainfall in about 24 hours earlier in March otherwise it would be horribly dry.

No problem Gordon - I remember this thread always had some interesting discussion. And then when an event got closer, we typically began/transferred discussion to the Victoria thread.

Liking that description Strato, we can dream for now

At least it's something to talk about I guess Geoff! I wonder if any of the other models will start to hint at something around then, that would be a positive sign.