Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Blackee]

Yes John, this morning' Weekly bulletin had Mt William on 146mm.

Not the highest, Ned' mates @ Canary Island sat on 211mm.

[Rhino]

Already sandbagging around Carisbrook, that water from Creswick will eventually make it's way here early tommorow aswell as whats coming down MaCallums creek. Certainly don't want any more heavy rain but 50mm over 10-12 hours should be ok, if that makes sense.

Rhino.

[solcampbell]

Barwon River rising at at about 10cm per hour over the last couple of hours, up to 1.6m. If we get the expected rainfall over the next 24hrs it could be interesting...

[melsy]

Just got back from a wonderful week long holiday to Wolloongong.
Looks like I missed a crazy week of weather with a couple more days left of it.
I haven't been able to empty the gauge yet but looks like over 50mm sitting in it. Expect if to be so much higher by the morning.
We were driving though the north this afternoon heading back down the Hume and saw towers going up every where. The sky looked amazing and menacing.
Hubby wasn't too impressed when I suggested we detour and start chasing.
That was one argument I couldn't win. If only I was driving!

[Anthony Violi]

Already the sky has gone convective in response to the tropical atmosphere, most of western Vic is starting to fill in again already. Shows how highly unstable it is. BTW the band just near Mildura is very heavy, not showing up well but it would be very heavy through there.

Decent activity also kicking off NW of Mildura in SA, and the band strecthing Northwards to Broken Hill just keeps developing

[Timster]

Wind is really starting to pick up here. No rain at the moment.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Hallsgap is being evacuated
The small bridge has given way at Stony creek.
reports off FB.

[AUSSKY]

Flooding in Gisborne, creek over footbridge, footy ground under water. 5 mile creek has broken its banks in Woodend and was ready to engulf the 2nd footbridge, water along Campaspe Drive, drove out towards Trentham, through 2 lots of water across the road, got stopped at Milking Yard Creek - couldn't have gone through that!!!! turned ack to Woodend, out to the north, water over the road in patches (on the sides of hills!!). up to Carleshrue, across towards the Kyneton - Tylden Road - through water over the road again....made it through Tylden (not sure how long the bridge will be ok through) and got home. If it rains tonight I'm not even going to think of going to work till after daylight.......may have to log in from home....photos to come....(and also on Facebook)

[HarleyB]

I personally think we're done here. Only 1-2 more mm to go. Will slide West of us again, out of the 6 or 7 smackings we could have got, we only got 1, this evening, a little disappointing, but oh well, what can ya do?

[Ausmammal]

Already the sky has gone convective in response to the tropical atmosphere, most of western Vic is starting to fill in again already. Shows how highly unstable it is. BTW the band just near Mildura is very heavy, not showing up well but it would be very heavy through there.

Decent activity also kicking off NW of Mildura in SA, and the band strecthing Northwards to Broken Hill just keeps developing

I'm not sure if this is the right question here but i'll try. What part is the rain band that is coming from Mildura in reference to the pic you put in a couple of posts ago. EG: Is it the trough meeting the low or the warm air meeting the low... Or just a rain band that sits somewhere that is really nothing and just a rain band? Still learning, so sorry for the not so correctly worded question.

[MasterOfRoc]

Hallsgap is being evacuated
The small bridge has given way at Stony creek.
reports off FB.

Yeap, Busses from Halls Gap Police station, going into Stawell Leisure Centre albeit via Pomonal... the only way apparently.

Water Police have made their way up to Halls Gap apparently

Western Highway down to 1 lane in parts

[firestorm]

45mm today still bucketing wind really increasing too! Council were party poppers this arvo when they dig the river throught to the ocean so shall not see any major flooding but the great ocean road is a mess with new landslides this evening Lorne thru apollo bay!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

6.45am this morning.

[Meso]

Wow, I visited Halls Gap for the first time only last Saturday. Beautiful little town. Hope everyone is ok.

[VRB20G45]

Yep lots of warm air advection taking place - surface flow is NE and then turning to a northerly aloft.

Also the jet is in a favourable position at present.

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/gfs_plot.h ... &mode=plot" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

300 jet at 5am

And again at 11am

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/gfs_plot.h ... &mode=plot" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

These are favourable in terms of where the left entrance to the jet is - providing lots of upper divergence and upmotion.

Then there is the upmotion as a result of all that poleward flowing air - isentropic flow (not exactly isentropic) will result in upmotion if the air is moving poleward.


TAF TAF YMML 131022Z 1312/1418
02018G35KT 9999 RA SCT020 BKN040
FM140000 24012KT 9999 RA SCT010 BKN035
FM140600 VRB05KT 9999 FEW010 BKN045
INTER 1312/1320 3000 RA BKN010
TEMPO 1320/1404 2000 +RA BKN005
RMK FM131200 MOD/SEV TURB BLW 5000FT TILL132400
T 24 24 23 23 Q 1002 1000 999 1000

TAF AMD YMML 130443Z 1306/1412
07014KT 9999 RA SCT020 BKN035
FM131200 02018G35KT 9999 RA SCT020 BKN040
FM140000 22012KT 9999 RA SCT010 BKN035
TEMPO 1306/1312 3000 +RA BKN008
INTER 1312/1320 4000 RA BKN010
TEMPO 1320/1404 2000 +RA BKN005
PROB30 INTER 1306/1312 1000 TSRA BKN005 SCT030CB
RMK FM130600 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL131200
FM131200 MOD/SEV TURB BLW 5000FT TILL132400
T 24 24 23 22 Q 1004 1003 1002 1001

TAFs above indicate the BoM think the change hasn't sped up, still expected around 11am at Tulla with the heaviest rain between 7am and 3pm.

[HarleyB]

Just thought incase you havent seen the flood warnings page here: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... f=16&t=931 That you might like to know the flood summary:
Flood Summary

Issued at 9:32 pm EDT on Thursday 13 January 2011.

The following Watches/Warnings are current:

Major Flood Warning for the Avoca River
Major Flood Warning for the Campaspe River upstream of Lake Eppalock.
Major Flood Warning for the Loddon River
Moderate Flood Warning for the Wimmera River
Minor Flood Warning for the Seven and Castle Creeks
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Sunday Creek

Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra,
Dandenong And Bunyip)Flood Watch for the Barwon, Moorabool, Leigh and Hovells
Creek Catchments and Otway Ranges Flood Watch for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca
and Wimmera Basins Flood Watch for the Glenelg and Hopkins Basins Flood Watch
for the Goulburn and Broken Basins Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper
Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa,
Ovens and King Catchments)

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/

[Anthony Violi]

Already the sky has gone convective in response to the tropical atmosphere, most of western Vic is starting to fill in again already. Shows how highly unstable it is. BTW the band just near Mildura is very heavy, not showing up well but it would be very heavy through there.

Decent activity also kicking off NW of Mildura in SA, and the band strecthing Northwards to Broken Hill just keeps developing

I'm not sure if this is the right question here but i'll try. What part is the rain band that is coming from Mildura in reference to the pic you put in a couple of posts ago. EG: Is it the trough meeting the low or the warm air meeting the low... Or just a rain band that sits somewhere that is really nothing and just a rain band? Still learning, so sorry for the not so correctly worded question.

No problems Ausmammal. Basically the trough seperates the two airmasses, the humid air is on the Eastern side, the drier air is on the western side. So on this side of the trough bands of rain will continue to form, remebering that a trough is a pool of colder air aloft creating the lifting mechanism needed. So with a strong upper trough and this amazing tropical airmass the atmosphere is highly unstable and all the mositure is lifted quickly into rain. The band itself is jsut one of many developing on this side of the trough. And whilst the trough is still out there will continue to do so.

[cutofflow]

Big blob near Birchip about to hit here in the next 30 mins. Throughout this event all three radars have shown nothing in that radar hole area so im expecting it to be a extreme intense band of rain. Very Windy here NNE 50kph wind gust, 24/22 still and about 169.4mm of rain for the event

[Ausmammal]

Thank you Anthony. Easy to understand explanation as usual from you.

[Meso]

Video from Halls Gap - " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;