Victoria: Troughy thundery humid rain event. Jan 9th -14th

[Didjman]

Baro rising to 1005.3 still with nw breeze. low filling in?? temp 24.1/22.5
Peter

[Andy]

Anthony, informative explanation, thanks for that. Makes sence to me.
Rain has stopped here for now. going to go outside now to Bangkok.

[Desertdust]

That wont be happening DD..will be raining there shortly again, where did the info come from?

Seeing if I can get a reply from him but I assumed it was official communciation

[Supercellimpact]

So will the change just stop around the border then procced through the state tommorrow morning??

[damiantheomen]

. going to go outside now to Bangkok.

I really feel like I have just got off the plane in singapore where you go from the airconditioning of the terminal to a sodden mass as you exit!

[HarleyB]

Is that all she wrote for Central, North Central and Northern Country? If it is, 30mm today. Better than I was expecting!

[Blackee]

40mm since 9am, 60mm in total for the event.
Drive from Deepdene to Donny East was "interesting".
Significant patches of water on Mont Albert Road in Surrey Hills as well as Whitehorse Road opposite the fire station in Box Hill.
Silly coppers choose tonight to set-up the Booze bus

Other than that, all going well, but the recently described "barrel roll" is still to calm. Dead calm outside, not looking forward to the 100km/h winds on such soggy ground!

[Skywalker]

Just tipped 23.5mm out of the gauge from today. Brings my total for the event up to the 70mm mark! Rain has stopped here.

[Anthony Violi]

SCI, the trough is still well back near the border, its currently stalled as the low drags it south, and as the upper trough begins to form a low it will be forced to push Eastwards across the state.

Just wanted to say again, all these areas that seem clear wont be for long, heavy rain will develop across almost the entire state tonight in response to the developing upper trough. So dont be complacent as this airmass is not a normal situation for Vic which is why the models are forecasting high falls. Its very dynamic, 24 degree Dps across most of Vic atm is a recipe for a very big finale and loads of problems.

[norfolk]

winds are beginning to gust here.......explain?

[Petros]

Rain is now steady here, I'm fantasising that its tending in from the E (may be a temporary "pull" by the low out W before it slips lower and puts us back into the lee of the ranges again as we've had all week). Mind you 2 hrs of this may give us 5-10mm in 2hrs.

BTW GFS doubters....

It dreamed up our exact situation last Sunday!

[Supercellimpact]

Also it's getting gusty out there. I was at the local oval and it was flooded because the reservior next it burst it's banks, and there was guys skim boarding and kids on BMX bikes riding through water that was flowing pretty fast onto the ground. I went down a walkway that leads to the oval which is where the inflow to the oval is and it's indeed very powerful had to hold on to the rail. Also because the ground is so saturated I seen a huge gum just fall over and crash onto a fence, could have eaisly killed someone. Amazing scenes also with water over roads, dams bursting, you name it it's all happening.

[Anthony Violi]

Developing surface low Tony, will get windy overnight.

[johnno]

Yes as AV says guy watch the Mallee Wimmera North Central and most of N Country fill in later

[Blackee]

102mm @ Mt William since 9am.
Roll of the dice chance of 200mm!!

[I_Love_Storms]

The way I see it is the first real convective pre frontal band has just passed Mildura and hitting Ouyen now moving NW to SW. This band is lightning active up north and has the 'potential' to spark up further south as the band pushes eastwards. In front of this band rain areas should fill in and drench Central areas until probably 3am when the band hits with a vengeance. Behind this band will be further rain with embedded localised storms. The band will tilt and this will cause the massive falls in Western Vic. At this stage, expecting a further 25-50mm in Central, 50-100mm in Nth Central and 50-150mm in Northern/Western areas. Eastern parts will have less however NE may rack up around 50mm about the ranges.

[johnno]

Had 62mm til 830pm before foe the event, best January rains in Years

[Blackee]

From Vicpol twitter:
Numerous road closures in Creswick.

Edit: Those wanting to keep up to date with unfolding events, follow one of the following on twitter.

* 3AW
* Victoria Police
* 774 Melbourne

[Meso]

I'm expecting a repeat of the last few nights...to be woken by rain pounding the roof for a good couple hours. Then looking fwd to tomorrow evening when we should finally get a bit of sun.

[johnno]

And Mt.William had 140mm the other day Wes? What that all together 240mm or something mabye more? With more to come? And to think some people were being skeptical of GFS with its 300mm falls last weekend